Just being curious - what do you think will happen .....

[Suff]

It happened in Italy when the wards where overwhelmed and oxygen and ventilators became scarce.

That is what the lock down and distancing is designed to prevent. So far it has worked, pretty much. But if we all decide it is over and can just get back to normal, we may yet face that reality.

[TheOstrich]

At some point the viewpoint pendulum will change and the population will begin to see the current situation as holding the entire economy hostage for a relatively small number of older people who might just survive it.

All this talk about sacrificing the older generation for the sake of the young; ending the lockdown in order to benefit the Holy Grail, sorry economy. (Purely as an aside, we could sometimes do with one 'o they "strike through" options on here, Kaz!)

And damn the consequences if the mortality figures take off again - it's for the greater good.

Well, as one of the older generation with underlying health problems, I take objection to that. But it's not to me the proponents of such measures will have to make account. It is the Blessed Sainted One, yes, Baroness Doreen Lawrence herself and her Labour Party enquiry. Because increasing the mortality rate means a disproportionately increasing number of BAME deaths - it's not just the oldies, it's already a proven trend that BAME infected folk are more likely to succumb to the virus than other ethnicities.

I'm quite sure Lawrence and Starmer will conclude the virus has all been a Whitey / Tory plot anyway without some so-called pundits adding more fuel to their fire.

#Apologies for the rant, but this thread has touched on a number of (to me) touchy subjects.#

[cromwell]

Right at this very moment isn't the time for inquiries, I would have thought.
And I think you could write the conclusion to the report right now.

[Workingman]

Ossie, please do not confuse what I have reported as support for what is being said in any way. It is not. I find those views as abhorrent as you do.

However, we cannot just bury our heads in the sand and pretend all is well with the world. These beliefs are fervently held by many people and, as with another subject of the recent past, they can and will shout down any objections. Facts are irrelevant, the cult and ideology is all, and it grows by the day.

The reason I reported them is so that they could be brought to the attention of those of us who might not be aware so that they could be challenged by a larger grouping than at present. Please, don't shoot the messenger.

[Suff]

Equally I'm not a proponent of just sacrificing the old. But, equally I understand that my view is not going to be the general view.

Already there is a split. The old are adamant that they can't be just shut up for what might be the last few months of their lives. Those who are younger and less at risk see no reason why their jobs and prospects should be crippled to protect others who bring nothing to their lives.

These views are going to come out and the government, who will be seeking reelection, will be listening.

You can bet that Starmer is never more glad that Labour lost the election so badly that they can't be blamed for any of this.

So let us watch and see how they manage it. One thing is for certain, as we see Sturgeon setting the ground work for going off and ignoring Westminster. So far so normal.

[meriad]

Personally I think all those that are at risk should continue to self isolate... but with more freedom that would allow family and a core group of friends to visit / they can visit. Necessary appointments still to be done but with the help of direct vs public transport (ie taxi, family member etc and always wearing a mask) but 'unnecessary' things like shopping to be avoided.

Everyone else, if healthy enough back to work as much as they can.

The leisure and travel industries are two that are going to be hit hardest by this all as it's hard to keep a semblance of social distancing with them, more the staff / crew vs guests.

[miasmum]

I completely agree with you Ria, that is exactly what I think. With regard to travel/tourism, I think flights should remain off limits, also holiday parks, and complexes but UK travel and holidays where you can stay in a cottage or apartment that can be cleaned thoroughly and with only your family should restart sooner

[Workingman]

All of these ideas about reopening things have little to do with disease control, they are more of a pick-me-up for us psychologically - a morale booster. In the case of the UK this is not the right time, just yet, and it might not be the time for quite a while.

Let me use Germany as an example. It has been widely praised for its decisive action with its lockdown and its testing and tracing, so much so that it has recorded about 6,000 deaths to the UK's nearly 30,000. On the 20th of April its R number was R=0.7 and there was an easing of its lockdown in the way some are suggesting for the UK.

The R number is vitally important as it indicates the rate of spread of the virus. R=0 is the ideal, it is effectively deactivated, staying at R=1 shows the spread has stalled, a peak or plateau has been reached, but anything above R=1 means that the virus is still spreading and could, potentially, go exponential. R=2 or R=3 would overwhelm us.

So, on 20th of April with an R=0.7 Germany eased its lockdown, Today, just a week later, it has gone back up to R=0.96 meaning that it is starting to pick up again. Once the figure goes back above R=1 Germany will go into a harder lockdown once more; that might be in a few days. A lot of the good work will have been undone and there will be a reset, it is a process that might repeat and repeat.

A rough guesstimate from worldometers.info shows the UK rate to be about R=1.12 leaving us some way off any easing, relaxation or lifting of the lockdown any time soon. To go too early would be a disaster.

[Gal2]

All of these ideas about reopening things have little to do with disease control, they are more of a pick-me-up for us psychologically - a morale booster. In the case of the UK this is not the right time, just yet, and it might not be the time for quite a while.
.

I absolutely agree WM

[Workingman]

Something strange is going on....

Today's figure for deaths is 765, which when added to yesterday's total of 21,678 give us a new total of 22,443

But another number for total death of 26,097 keeps cropping up. If that number is true then the UK has overtaken France and Spain, whose figures are also in, and only 1,600 behind Italy. We are now third highest for deaths in the world.