Workingman wrote:Brexit is not yet signed, sealed and delivered and until it is anything could happen.
Please do not shoot the messenger.
This is true. Until A50 is triggered, anything goes.
But let's look at it in a harsh light of reality. If Cameron had stayed, the economy had tanked, the BOE had to implement negative interest rates and 10 times the money printing they are doing today, Osborne had to implement his punishment budget.....
Then.
Cameron would have had a good stance to stand up and say that whilst the decision was unanimous, it was also advisory and that it was not his job to implement the suicidal tendencies of the public.
However, looking at what did happen. Cameron resigned. The economy stayed strong. The BOE lashed out with a pre prepared knee jerk reaction and, essentially, did more harm than good. We have a new PM who, surely, did not expect to be there any time soon if ever. We have 100 Tory MP's who will eviscerate anyone in the party who try to block Brexit and only about 50 to 60 who are so EU invested that they will do almost anything to try and block it.
Wales voted for Brexit as a majority. Fully 36% of Scots voted for Brexit and Sturgeon is going to find that that will translate to pretty much close to 32% vote NO in any new referendum. I think she has not fully analysed the reason why she now has a minority government in Scotland, namely that the supporters who want to leave the EU and saw leaving the UK as a mechanism to do that, have left her for the Tory party and Unification.
Now lets look at the English dynamic. Let's be brutal here, it was the Labour voters from the North and the midlands who carried the vote. Not the Tories from the south east. That is a significant statement because it binds the hands of the Labour MP's who really want to stay in the EU.
Looking at it with those eyes, we come to the Lisbon Treaty and A50. It was cleverly written. ONLY the PM can trigger it and nobody can stop her.
To understand that you'd need to understand the make up of the remainder of the EU. Predominantly PR elections, predominantly coalitions. In that scenario it is quite possible for a PM or even a president to go against the will of the people and simply say "no I'm not doing it". No vote of parliament, no pressure brought to bear by political factions can MAKE it happen. In short the person who has the decision can be bought with visions of EU gravy train roles if they are pushed out and even if they are not.
Yet again this is a case of EU law being made for the EU and ignoring reality in the UK. Right now a lot of EU leaders are sitting around wondering how they could get it so wrong. How they could invest so much power in a single person who they have absolutely NO control over and NO influence with. A person who understands that being PM of the 5th largest economy in the world, the 3rd most powerful military in the world and with a permanent seat on the UN security council, gives her the exercise of real power of a kind that even the EU cannot give her.
Is Article 50 going to be triggered? You bet your life it is. Triggering A50 is a gateway to 60% for the Tories in an election and 20% for Labour. If May triggers A50 in March and calls an election in May to give her the mandate to do what needs to be done, she's going to change UK politics for a decade.
Even if the courts say NO she has to ask the MP's, she can defy them and do it anyway. They simply cannot stop her. She can do it with one document signed outside the UK, in Brussels, where the UK police can't enter.
Is she going to do it? You bet. There has been NO opportunity like this, in politics, in the last century, to pick up votes from all over the UK on one single issue.
May says she's not going to call an election. I'm not so sure. If she were able to bring in 50 or 60 more Brexiters, at the expense of Labour, it would guarantee a simple and easy passage of the legislation she needs to exit. As Brexit would be the #1 issue on the statute books, she could railroad all changes through the HOL by forcing immediate turn around in the house. In fact if the HOL become a blocker she could force legislation through to sideline them first. Making all other decisions simple.
With a majority of 100 she could do this easily.
The press is still in denial. Perhaps they might get a clue and realise that they might be dealing with an able political strategist who is keeping everyone off balance until she needs to clue them in.
Well it's one scenario.
Oh and I rarely shoot the messenger unless the messenger tries to spin the message. I see no spin, just a different viewpoint.
