cromwell wrote:You have a great deal more faith in Conservative MPs than I do Suff. This document is just appalling; worse than anything that I could have imagined.
Conservative MP's have to get re-elected. This document does not allow that for a good 50 or 60 of them unless something changes radically. Also there are up to 100 Tories who see this as a total betrayal and only about 50 Tories who see this as a good thing. At least 100 Labour MP's see this as a really bad thing.
This deal is exactly what I expected to happen once Davis left. With Davis in place this text would never have seen the light of day.
I would like to see the actual text of this deal but there is going to be one glaring difference between the TEU (Treaty on European Union) and this deal.
The TEU is a unification deal where the member states give up their full powers in exchange for the full benefits of European Union. This deal does not. As of March 29 2019 the TEU and TFEU cease to apply to the UK. At that time this agreement comes into force and a further agreement is to be completed.
Unless this agreement says that the UK have "Given their full powers, found in good form", then it is nothing more than a treaty between two fully competent nation states and, no matter what the text says, either side can decide to withdraw from it.
The EU have shot themselves in the foot with this document because they have already created the downfall of it. They insist on treating the UK banking sector as "Equivalence" or, in other words, third nation status. In that case the UK is not bound within a Union, but allied TO a union, by treaty, as an independent Nation state.
They told Trump that he could not change NAFTA. Trump said "watch me". Trump proved that a trade deal is not a non negotiable "Suicide Pact" but actually a document which states the relationship between two fully sovereign nations. Something which any one of the participants can insist on changing, under the threat of withdrawal.
If you think that one paragraph in A50 can generate court cases and a huge amount of legal "hot air", just consider what nearly 600 pages can do!
May will probably see this "Document" to signing, if she can get it through parliament and IF Italy are willing to sign it. She won't last much longer.
We have already seen what Farage can do in terms of forcing Cameron to have a referendum. 12% of the electorate following an ideal are an extremely potent force. The EU may think they have been really clever and "done the dirty" on the UK, once again. But they have not even begun to see the depths of trouble they have created for themselves.
Watch this space. There is an election in 2021. Just see how much fear can be generated, by then, in our political classes.
