Now What?

[Suff]

WM I didn't say it was all the EU's fault. In fact it is, in a large part, May's fault. Because May agreed to EU terms it was impossible to sell to the Parliament. What I want 100% crystal clear is that the EU does not respect the UK, does not believe that the UK deserves anything but their ire for daring to reject the most wonderful opportunities of the EU and believes that the UK has no choice but to accept what the EU has "most graciously" offered.

I don't expect anything else of the EU but most remainers in the UK seem to think that the EU is totally blameless in the current situation. When you find a fire in your house and all you do is pour fuel on it, you are not blameless. I just keep on pointing that out. Hopefully, some day, the whole of the UK will recognise the fact.

As for A50 I said, before the court ruled, that it was impossible to revoke unilaterally. The EU said the same thing so I was not alone. However I also said that May would never revoke it, regardless of the decision of the CJEU. This, also, is not surmise, the UK government presented to the CJEU that they had absolutely no intention of revoking notification and, so, the court did not need to rule.

That being said, it is entirely possible that a new PM, or a new government, could choose to use the CJEU's decision to play for time in the event of either a leadership battle completing or the government falling and a new government happening.

Just because I said that A50 could not be revoked before does not mean that I'm blind or unable to accept facts. I still stand by my assertion that May will not revoke the notification and I also stand by the fact that it will need a bill in order to do so. That was decided by the UK courts that the sitting PM did not have the sole right in the A50 process.

As for the DUP, you need to read some NI press. The DUP has been telling the press, fairly regularly, that No Deal is better than May's deal and has been reiterating Varadkar's internal statements that there will be no hard border with NI even in the event of Hard Brexit.

I don't see any duplicity there unless you only read the mainland press. Then you are limiting your viewpoint.

Right now I see the clock being wound down towards a showdown where nobody gets what they want except for those who want a Hard Brexit. The EU is fairly fine with this because they think it backs the UK into a corner. The EU has no idea just how badly that could go wrong, why would they? It has always worked for them before. Expect manifestations of blind panic coming out of Germany if this continues into March.

Why do I think this is happening? Simple really, 52:48 of the people who voted are for leaving and over 70% of their representatives are for remaining. Those MP's lack anything resembling a backbone, so they whiffle and whimble their way through the whole mess, hoping someone will rescue them from this ongoing nightmare.

As for more time? There is only one reason for more time. To trying and derail the process so badly that we never leave. As I believe this will damage UK politics far more than leaving without a deal, I see no real benefit in more time. What we need is less time so that the EU can ditch the backstop and allow May to present the deal without it. Until the EU see the very real prospect of No Deal, they are not going to do that.

Would I like No Deal? Sure. Would I accept the deal on the table without the backstop? Yes. You may think that I'm being flippant or cavalier with the future of the UK. I don't even know how I'll get home (exactly), on March 30th, or later, nor how we will engage with the French authorities post Brexit. Do I see this as a good reason to sell my country down the river? No I don't.

So when I set out my possibilities above, I was looking at the current situation and what the MP's may do. Nothing to do with what I want them to do or think they should be doing. If you ask me for odds, I'd say #4 has a high likelihood right now but that the others are easier to fall into.

[Workingman]

The problem we have in all of this is that May has done everything arse about face. It is history now that May called a disastrous GE and lost her majority. It is history that she invoked A50 before there were any plans. Unfortunately that history has brought us to where we are today.

Forget Davis, Raab and Barclay they were / are the patsies put up to be shot down. May and Robbins are the architects of "the deal". They knew that the EU's four freedoms are immutable, red lines if you like. so they set up our own in direct conflict with those of the EU.

The two then entered into negotiations with the EU and eventually came up with the draft Withdrawal Agreement. May then unilaterally signed the UK to it along with the EU 27. Once the signing was done the EU thought that negotiations were over, and rightly so.

Unfortunately for May, and us all, her deal then fell in parliament by a majority of 230 votes, and that after her cowardly five week delay. We are now in a position where tweaking the deal is nigh on impossible because the EU have May's signature as PM and leader of the UK on the draft. What might lead them back to the table is a major "something else" , but that looks unlikely to be acceptable to May.

May has acted dictatorially in all of this. She called a opportunistic general election - and failed. That, by the way, created a new government thus neutralising any promises made by previous governments. She then invoked A50 at a time of her choosing without even a nod to her own party or other parties on how to proceed. As negotiations with the EU came to a close - the detail being there - she should have come back and put it to parliament. It would have been amended, no doubt about that, but it would have left the negotiating door open so that "something else" could be put forward. It would have put her and the UK in a position of strength. If only she had taken the blinkers off!

It is a weakness of the UK system that a bill falling is seen as failure when in some cases it should be viewed as a way to look for modification to gain consensus. Ah well, there we are.