A new PM, same can, a bit more road.

[Workingman]

Rumours are that if May fails to get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill passed after 3rd of June there could be a leadership challenge within the week.

The latest polls are as follows: Johnson 39%, Raab 13%, Javid and Gove 9%, Hunt 8% and Hancock 1%.

They are all Brexiters of various flavours, but regardless of that it is an uninspiring list and it would not be much improved if Mordaunt, Leadsom, Truss and Rudd joined the fray. Such is the state of the current Conservative party.

Another rumour bubbling under is that if an arch Brexiter is elected and then tries to push through a hard Brexit, of the no-deal type, Labour would be forced to go for a no confidence vote in the government. This time it could pass as a majority of MPs, of all parties, are for Remain and / or are anti no-deal, so we would end up with a GE.

Were that to happen the timeframe is such that the UK would have to get the begging bowl out again and go ask the EU for another extension.

It is all a bit of a mess.

[Kaz]

Ugh! What a bunch

[TheOstrich]

Ugh! What a bunch

Quite! That a charlatan like Johnson is leading the polls only illustrates the complete mess the Conservatives and this country is in.

All picking Johnson will do is ensure that Corbyn wins the next election. Talk about being between a rock and a hard place …..

[cromwell]

The Conservative party are in a bit of a mess, aren't they? Which is an understatement.
The country is split on Brexit, 75% of the Conservative MP's are against it. More importantly for them, 80% of ordinary Conservative party members are for Brexit.

So what we have is a party that doesn't represent the electorate on Brexit (none of them do) but a party that doesn't even represent the views of it's own membership on Brexit. The Parliamentary Conservative party is deeply at odds with it's own membership.

So even with the peculiar stitch-up which is the Tory mechanism for selecting a leader, there looks to be trouble ahead. After Tory MP's have whittled the candidates down to the last two, the members are graciously allowed the final say. So Johnson may not even make the last two, the same as last time.

But if that happens the ordinary Tory membership will go mental. They won't, imo, stand for it. They realise, if Tory MP's don't, that a "compromise, safe pair of hands" candidate won't do it. Theresa May was supposed to be that and look what happened! The membership want a Conservative Conservative as leader, not a Blue Labour or Blue LibDem, and if they don't get one there's going to be trouble.

""They are all Brexiters of various flavours, but regardless of that it is an uninspiring list and it would not be much improved if Mordaunt, Leadsom, Truss and Rudd joined the fray. Such is the state of the current Conservative party"".

Very true. Some people like Johnson though. Most people wouldn't even recognise anyone else on WM's list if they tripped over them. It depends on the strength of Tory MP's powers of self-delusion. They would love to think that they can win the next election without Johnson because they don't like him, but if they convince themselves to vote for some plastic Brexiteer like Javid then I think they are sunk. Half their membership will leave.

The only card they have to play at the next election will be to say that Corbyn is the bogeyman and he'll wreck the country, so don't vote for him. And if that's all they have, they don't have much.

[Workingman]

If they do elect Johnson they are sunk, and deep down I think they know that.

The Conservatives, and indeed all parties, believe that they are made up of their members and MPs. If that were the case none of them would even get one MP. The reality is that they are made up of like-minded supporters and their support ebbs and flows. That is how we get changes of government at general elections.

Johnson is good for a laugh on shows like Have I Got News For You, but he is also a buffoon and political lightweight. He managed to surround himself with a decent crew as Mayor of London to make him look competent, but could not do that in the Foreign Office where he was a disaster. Most of the public have cottoned on to his lack of ability.

I secretly hope that he does become Tory leader... he will take over what May has started and finish them off for a long time. Unfortunately for the Tories, and the country, they do not appear to have anyone charismatic and competent enough to grab the reins. Ken Clarke, the only one I can think of, is too old.

[cromwell]

It's difficult to see where the Conservatives are going to go then. None of the people apart from Johnson even appeal to their own members, let alone the country at large. Unless they have a wild card up their sleeve.
Tie will tell I suppose.

eta - Amber Rudd and Mike Hancock (who he) have been on the radio talking about "the centre ground". Yes, well imo the pursuit of the centre ground is what has got us here. In a no-man's land of muddle, confusion and backsliding by the House of Commons.
Amber only has a majority of 346 anyway. Wouldn't take much of a swing to get her out, a little tilt would do it!

[Workingman]

The trouble with "the centre ground" is that in the main it would be fence sitting. Look where that stance has got Labour over Brexit. Even well known centrist parties give a nod to the left or the right, as is the case with the LibDems leaning leftish.

What we could do with is a "hard" centrist party. One that is not afraid to cherry pick the best bits from left and right philosophies.

Of note: A YouGov poll of 7000 people at the weekend puts the Tories in fifth place, behind the Greens. There is no hiding how damning that is nor how much damage it would do if carried over to a GE.

Another problem for the Tories is that if they do elect Johnson they would lose Scotland. That is ~13 MPs down the pan and many could go to the LibDems.

This parliament is not going to run its full term and that makes the next general election very interesting indeed.