The number of daily virus cases

[cromwell]

Just got a bit more info on the "data", the "science" that the government claims to be following.

The SPI-I-MO data is prior to February the 7th. This ignores the almost uniformly good data on deaths and infections that we have had since February the 7th.

The SPI-M-O document assumes the vaccine rollout speed will drop to two million a week. In reality it currently stands at 2.5 million a week.

It assumes just 48% and 60% protection from first and second vaccine dose respectively. In reality, PHE data suggests first dose protection is between 57% and 70%, rising to 85% after the second dose.

It assumes hospitalisation prevention would only be at 70% after the first dose. In reality, Public Health Scotland data shows 85% protection from Pfizer and 94% from AstraZeneca….

It assumes just 85% of 50 to 80 year olds would accept a vaccine and get covered. In reality take-up has been over 90%.

Some of these assumptions are so wide of the mark you'd have to suspect the motives of the people behind this stuff.

Original story on the Guido Fawkes website.
https://order-order.com/2021/02/24/outd ... timetable/

[Workingman]

In the olden days of computer modelling (when I were a lad) there was a well known acronym - GIGO - meaning garbage in: garbage out. If you put nonsense in at the start the resulting outcome will be even bigger nonsense. It seems to have been forgotten by today's modellers.

What I really and truly do not understand is why these outside sources (Warwick & ICL) are being used to influence policy. The government has its own dashboard with up-to-date daily figures for testing, cases, vaccinations, hospitalisations and deaths. The data can also be more granular such as by nation or region. Government also has its own highly qualified professional statisticians to work directly with these figures. Their models do not need assumptions as they can use real-time data.

It is true that the future cannot be predicted to any certainty, but using real data and not guesses certainly helps with its accuracy.

[Suff]

The press has caused so much suspicion, aided by Whitty and SAGE, that any internal pronouncement will be dead before it ever gets out to the microphone.

We are having good numbers right now. This week, on the other hand, France jumped to 20k cases yesterday and 35k today.

The only thing which will drive an early end to the lockdown will be lowering cases, a massive reduction in deaths and a massive reduction in serious cases in hospital.

Given the 6 week lag on cases to deaths, that should all crystallise around Easter.

We are being prepared for that eventuality. The probability it will fall that way is quite high now we are vaccinating. The other option of suddenly rising cases into a third wave is reducing day by day.

[Suff]

Forgot to say. We have done nearly 88m tests now. We continue too look harder and find less cases. A significant declining trend.