Ukraine Peace Talks

[Suff]

This is going to be really unpopular but it has to be said.

Anyone watch the whole stream? Not just the clip the press fed us?

Anyone check that Rubio had been to Ukraine before this meeting and agreed a specific schedule which Zelensky was going to sign up to which is why the media was there.

Anyone check that Zelensky went off script, tried to hardball and renegotiate with Trump right there in front of the press and it blew up in his face?

No? Well the truth is rather unpopular about the Trump administration right now so I guess we can leave it as Trump is an asshole who doesn't know what he is doing.

Meanwhile hundreds of Ukrainians die every day.

I'd help Ukraine win in a trice if we could make it happen. But it isn't going to happen. You now know the full impact of the Macron meeting with Europe and what they said to Zelensky. The minor niggling problem? They can't deliver.

You know who I feel sorry for? The Ukrainian people. Because this was a pure play move from Europe to try and give Trump bad press and Zelensky was the fall guy. You can check me if you want but we are about to go into the spring offensive season in Ukraine. Russia is going to move and move hard. What are they going to attack back with? US weapons? Cause Europe sure as hell doesn't have them. I guess he could go to China and try and sell EU credit. Might work you never know. Putin might have a minor hissy fit at China selling to both sides though.

Beware who is pulling your chain.

[Workingman]

It won't be popular because it is not correct.

The meeting was live-streamed on Sky and was a borefest. Zelensky didn't go off script, he just played along. Then came the bit we all saw.

Marco Rubio was not in Ukraine, he was in Saudi Arabia talking "peace" with the Russians. Europe and Ukraine were sidelined.

Funny old thing, history - facts.

When this all started some of us said "talk", but we were 'appeasers', and puppies, ready to roll over and have our tummies tickled.

Russia always wanted a corridor to Crimea. "No chance" said the hawks "Kick them out, drive them back". "We need to teach the Ruskies a lesson". We will do what it takes.

Today? Let's appease and compromise. Whose tummies are being tickled now?

[Suff]

Yes I got the Ukraine bit wrong. They met in Munich.

So here is the full situation and you can decide for yourself whether he went off script or not.

There is one soecific point there. This broadcast was the Public part. There was a final private part before this.

Secondly you can see that Vance was explicitly involved all the way through. Zelensky was directly attacking Vance.

Now we have Norwegian fuel companies refusing to suppluly diesel fuel to US subs on a NATO mission and EU senior diplomats running the US down.

You want to look for Russian assets, look for those actively tearing NATO apart right now.

Timeline and Locations of Direct Negotiations:
Early February 2025 – Preliminary Talks (Likely Washington, D.C., and/or Kyiv):
When: Before February 14, 2025, likely in the first week or two of February.

Where: Initial discussions likely began in Washington, D.C., with U.S. officials, possibly involving phone calls or virtual meetings with Ukrainian counterparts in Kyiv. Exact locations aren’t explicitly documented, but this aligns with standard diplomatic prep work.

With Whom: Marco Rubio, as Secretary of State, and J.D. Vance, as Vice President, begin engaging with Ukrainian officials, including Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and possibly Zelensky’s team remotely. Trump’s national security team, including envoy Keith Kellogg, may have been involved in laying groundwork.

What Happened: Rubio and Vance, under Trump’s directive, start negotiating a framework for Ukraine to provide U.S. access to its rare earth minerals as repayment for wartime aid. This is tied to Trump’s broader push to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Rubio’s call with Sybiha before Munich (noted in State Department readouts) emphasizes “bold diplomacy” for a sustainable peace, setting the stage.

February 14, 2025 – Munich Security Conference (Munich, Germany):
When: February 14, 2025, during the Munich Security Conference.

Where: Munich, Germany, on the sidelines of the conference.

With Whom: Vance and Rubio meet directly with Volodymyr Zelensky, alongside U.S. officials like Keith Kellogg (special envoy for Russia and Ukraine) and possibly Morgan Ortagus (deputy envoy). Zelensky’s delegation is present, though Rubio’s arrival is delayed due to a plane issue, potentially limiting his in-person role that day.

What Happened: This is a pivotal face-to-face negotiation. Vance and Rubio pitch the minerals deal, which Zelensky verbally agrees to, per later claims by Rubio and X posts. Zelensky insists on “real security guarantees” linked to any deal, reflecting Ukraine’s need for U.S. backing against Russia. Vance pushes Trump’s vision of a “durable, lasting peace,” while Rubio assures Ukraine’s independence. However, Zelensky reportedly backtracks the next day (February 15), saying no deal is final without security commitments, frustrating the U.S. side.

February 15–26, 2025 – Follow-Up Negotiations (Kyiv and Washington, D.C.):
When: Between February 15 and February 26, 2025.

Where: Kyiv, Ukraine, for Zelensky’s team, and Washington, D.C., for Vance, Rubio, and Trump’s administration. Some talks may occur virtually or via intermediaries.

With Whom: Rubio leads drafting the deal’s contracts, coordinating with Zelensky’s aides and Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova. Vance likely plays a secondary role, focusing on Trump’s messaging. Zelensky engages directly or through proxies, refining terms.

What Happened: Rubio finalizes the minerals agreement based on Munich discussions, expecting Zelensky to sign. X posts suggest Zelensky agreed in Munich but later shifts demands, seeking broader guarantees. Trump announces on February 26 at a cabinet meeting that Zelensky will visit the White House on February 28 to sign, indicating confidence in Rubio’s work. Zelensky, however, resists signing in Kyiv or Munich, insisting on a White House event, possibly to elevate its visibility or pressure the U.S.

February 28, 2025 – White House Meeting (Washington, D.C.):
When: February 28, 2025, at 11 a.m.

Where: The White House, Oval Office, Washington, D.C.

With Whom: Zelensky meets Trump, Vance, Rubio, and national security adviser Mike Waltz. Reporters witness the public portion.

What Happened: This is the intended culmination of Vance and Rubio’s negotiations. The deal—access to Ukraine’s minerals for aid repayment—unravels when Zelensky demands security guarantees beyond what Rubio and Vance negotiated. Vance defends Trump’s diplomacy, sparking a shouting match. Rubio, present but less vocal, later calls it a “fiasco,” blaming Zelensky’s antagonism. The signing is canceled, and Zelensky leaves early.

Major Players in the Negotiations:
J.D. Vance (Vice President): Acts as Trump’s enforcer, pushing the peace-through-dealmaking narrative. His Munich meeting with Zelensky is key, though his skepticism of Ukraine aid (from his Senate days) colors his approach. He escalates tensions in the Oval Office by accusing Zelensky of disrespect.

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State): Leads the diplomatic heavy lifting, negotiating with Zelensky and Sybiha. He drafts the deal post-Munich, expecting Zelensky to honor the verbal agreement. His frustration peaks after February 28, demanding an apology for Zelensky’s pivot.

Volodymyr Zelensky (Ukrainian President): Engages directly with Vance and Rubio in Munich and via aides afterward. He agrees to the deal in principle but ties it to security guarantees, clashing with the U.S. stance when they’re not offered.

Supporting U.S. Figures: Keith Kellogg (envoy) and Mike Waltz (national security adviser) aid Vance and Rubio, though their direct negotiation roles are less clear. Trump oversees, setting the deal’s parameters.

Ukrainian Side: Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and Ambassador Oksana Markarova liaise with Rubio, relaying Zelensky’s evolving demands.

How the Deal Emerged:
The deal stemmed from Trump’s push to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war while offsetting U.S. aid costs. Vance and Rubio, tasked with executing this, leveraged Ukraine’s mineral wealth as a bargaining chip. Munich was the critical in-person negotiation, where Zelensky’s initial buy-in gave Rubio momentum to finalize terms. However, Zelensky’s insistence on a White House signing—possibly to lock in U.S. commitment—backfired when he raised unmet demands, exposing misaligned expectations Vance and Rubio thought were settled.
In short, Vance and Rubio’s direct negotiations spanned early February to February 28, primarily in Munich and via D.C.-Kyiv channels, with Zelensky and his team. The deal’s collapse on February 28 highlights the gap between their handshake in Munich and Zelensky’s final stance.

[saundra]

Now suff if I had read all that I would be confused after the first line

[Suff]

It is a long story but it reads like this.

Trump sent Vance, the VP and Rubio the secretary of state to Munich to work out a treaty with Zelensky
They laid down the bones of it, Zelsnsky wanted more.
After that, over calls and video, they hammered out a deal Zelensky could sign, he still had reservations but the message is he agreed to sign, they wanted him to sign it in Munich, he wanted to come to the oval office
Zelensky arrived at the oval office having set the expectation that a treaty, negotiated by Vance and Rubio, would be signed by Zelensky and Trump
Zelensky basically set the scene for negotiating more directly with Trump on a live broadcast when the expectation was they would explain the treaty and both Trump and Zelensky would sign on camera.

As Zelensky clearly started on with something he had been talking about before but Vance and Rubio felt had been resolved, vance started to get annoyed.
Zelensky and Vance got into it and Trump had to cut it off.
The final word from Trump was "you don't have the cards".

What Trump meant was that Zelensky had set the scene of signing a deal he had no intention of signing in a a game of high stake poker to try and leverage Trump live on US broadcast to get a better deal.

That is what went down and now the EU and the UK are doubling down on it. A Norwegian company has refused to fuel a US submarine on a NATO patrol and the German foreign minister is promoting this as a good thing. Doubling down on dumping on the US.

We are now at an inflection point. The US is being attacked politically by their allies on Security. Allies who are totally reliant on US support.

They only need to take one more step to decide to interfere directly in Ukraine, bringing NATO into direct conflict with Russia and Trump will have no choice but to withdraw from NATO and possibly even the UN.

WM is right that I did not want there to be talks when Russia was going to use the talks to take Ukrainian territory. Not when it was possible for the west to support Ukraine with the correct technology to win.

It is very clear now that the west has no intention of giving Zelensky this technology. That might be a wise thing because once he has won christ knows what they would do with it next.

So we are left with a secession of hostilities and trying to work something out which will keep them out of war. I don't like it but reality has to step in. Ukraine can't win because we won't let them. So something has to give and Zelensky, who is running on Martial law and suspended elections, trying to hardball Trump in the Oval office, live on air, is not the way.

This is in no way Trump's fault but the more that Europe and the EU dump on Trump the more precarious they make their own security situation. More and more I'm seeing the groundswell of US disapproval of both Ukraine and Europe. So much so the call for the US to exit both NATO and Europe is growing and it is growing fast.

What you are all saying here is just adding to that groundswell of opinion. Do you want NATO destroyed? Because I don't but if it takes NATO destroyed and Russia to open a broad war front on Europe, backed by China, to fix the total mess Europe and the EU are in right now? I have a very hard time arguing that the US stand fast. Because, to put it bluntly, neither the EU nor the UK government deserve their support right now.

So perhaps we can stop the Trump bashing and start realising we are being played here and it is a far more dangerous situation than any the world has seen since the Cuban missile crisis.

[saundra]

Yes very serious indeed

[Workingman]

Quoted opinions, but no links = questionable. I have contrary opinions, they are widely shared in other global media than X, but I can't be arsed to link them. Touché

We are where we are regardless of what X or GBnews tell us. The behind scenes work in governments is not for us to know - that's how it always has been. Shows such as Saudi, Munich and the Oval Office are fluff. We know not what went on behind closed doors. We get hints but no details.

Outwardly it's a dichotomy. The US wants to be the world's policeman but cannot do it without Europe and some SE Asian states. Europe needs to spend more to defend itself: true; but the US needs a united Europe.

[Suff]

We live in the age of AI

1. Early February 2025 – Preliminary Talks (Likely Washington, D.C., and/or Kyiv)
When: Before February 14, 2025, likely early February.

Where: Washington, D.C., and/or Kyiv (inferred as standard diplomatic hubs).

With Whom: Rubio (Secretary of State), Vance (Vice President), Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, and Zelensky’s team.

What Happened: Initial discussions on a minerals deal as repayment for U.S. aid, tied to Trump’s peace strategy.

Reference:
Web ID: 14 (Reuters, Feb 14, 2025) mentions Ukraine receiving a U.S. draft accord on February 12, 2025, when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent visited Kyiv, suggesting earlier talks occurred to prepare this draft. Rubio’s call with Sybiha is inferred from diplomatic norms and later State Department mentions (e.g., Web ID: 7).

Context Note: Exact early February talks aren’t detailed in sources, but this aligns with the timeline leading to Munich and Bessent’s trip.
2. February 14, 2025 – Munich Security Conference (Munich, Germany)
When: February 14, 2025.

Where: Munich, Germany, sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.

With Whom: Vance, Rubio, Zelensky, Keith Kellogg (special envoy), and Morgan Ortagus (deputy envoy).

What Happened: Key face-to-face meeting where Vance and Rubio pitch the minerals deal; Zelensky agrees verbally but seeks security guarantees, backtracking by February 15.

References:
Web ID: 3 (CBS News, Feb 14, 2025) confirms Vance, Rubio, Kellogg, and Ortagus met Zelensky in Munich to discuss the deal and war’s end. Zelensky stresses “real security guarantees.”

Web ID: 13 (AP News, Feb 17, 2025) shows Zelensky rejecting a U.S. draft post-Munich, implying a verbal agreement shifted, with photos of the February 14 meeting.

Web ID: 2 (NY Post, Feb 21, 2025) Rubio claims Zelensky agreed in Munich but later misrepresented it, supporting the backtracking narrative.

Post ID: 1 (X, Feb 21, 2025) Vance confirms Rubio’s account, alleging Zelensky lied post-meeting.
3. February 15–26, 2025 – Follow-Up Negotiations (Kyiv and Washington, D.C.)
When: February 15–26, 2025.

Where: Kyiv (Zelensky’s team) and Washington, D.C. (Vance, Rubio, Trump admin).

With Whom: Rubio drafts deal with Zelensky’s aides and Ambassador Oksana Markarova; Vance supports Trump’s messaging.

What Happened: Rubio finalizes the deal; Zelensky resists signing in Kyiv or Munich, pushing for a White House event. Trump announces the February 28 signing on February 26.

References:
Web ID: 15 (ABC News, Feb 27, 2025) notes Zelensky’s framework agreement and his push for a White House meeting with Trump, implying prior negotiations.

Web ID: 18 (TIME, Feb 24, 2025) mentions ongoing talks with Zelensky’s team (e.g., Andrii Yermak) and U.S. officials tweaking the deal, aligning with this period.

Web ID: 0 (CBS News, Mar 1, 2025) Trump’s February 26 cabinet announcement of Zelensky’s visit confirms the negotiation climax.

Post ID: 2 & 0 (X, Feb 21, 2025) Suggest Zelensky agreed privately but shifted publicly, hinting at tensions in this window.
4. February 28, 2025 – White House Meeting (Washington, D.C.)
When: February 28, 2025, 11 a.m.

Where: White House, Oval Office, Washington, D.C.

With Whom: Zelensky, Trump, Vance, Rubio, Mike Waltz (national security adviser).

What Happened: Intended signing collapses as Zelensky demands guarantees, leading to a public clash with Vance and Trump; Rubio present but less vocal.

References:
Web ID: 0 (CBS News, Mar 1, 2025) Details the Oval Office blowup, Vance and Trump accusing Zelensky of disrespect, and Rubio/Waltz asking him to leave.

Web ID: 6 (Axios, Feb 28, 2025) Describes the shouting match, Vance’s “propaganda tours” jab, and Trump’s “World War III” accusation.

Web ID: 9 (NY Times, Mar 3, 2025) Rubio defends Trump and Vance, confirming his presence and Zelensky’s push for guarantees.

Web ID: 17 (CNN, Mar 2, 2025) Highlights Vance’s gratitude critique and the ambush-like exchange.
Notes on Sources:
Primary Sources: Web IDs 1, 3, 6, 9, 13, 15, and 17 provide direct coverage of Munich and the White House events, with photos and quotes grounding the timeline.

Supporting Context: Web IDs 2, 7, 8, 14, and 18 fill gaps on negotiation details and fallout, though some lack specific dates.

X Posts: Post IDs 1–3 reflect real-time sentiment and claims (e.g., Zelensky’s alleged duplicity), treated as inconclusive but corroborative of Rubio/Vance’s narrative.

Inferred Details: Early February talks and exact Kyiv/D.C. locations are logical extrapolations from diplomatic patterns and later events, as specific pre-Munich sources are sparse.
These references should link you to the core events and players. Let me know if you need help formatting citations or digging deeper into any specific point!

Web links

1. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-ra ... zelenskyy/
2. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -live-news
3. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/us/p ... trump.html
4. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -zelenskyy
5. https://nypost.com/2025/02/21/us-news/s ... arth-deal/
6. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/zelenskyy- ... nce-rubio/
7. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white- ... rcna194118
8. https://www.axios.com/2025/02/20/us-ukr ... -agreement
9. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 025-02-14/
10. https://www.euronews.com/2025/02/16/ukr ... e-minerals
11. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... mp/681880/
12. https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-us-z ... 8d81720b29
13. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/02/28/us/trump-news
14. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/key-tak ... =119299758
15. https://www.axios.com/2025/02/28/trump- ... erals-deal

Posts

1. https://x.com/RyanAFournier/status/1892966898066661463
2. https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1892977484729328056
3. https://x.com/rich_coupe/status/1896196684277076287