Much was said

[Suff]

last night, by the LIb Dems, about how we have lost our hardest working MEP's and will replace them with people who deride the system.

So what have those ever so hard working Lib Dem MEP's done?

More integration with the EU
More directives damaging to UK businesses
More immigration
More unrest in the UK at an unrepresentative and encroaching EU.

Perhaps some less hard working but more UK focused MEP's is exactly what we want. People who are not "sucked in" by the EU mantra and will vote on the very few and consequently very important things, in the way that benefits the UK and not the EU.

I believe that the Lib Dems have been soundly rewarded for their obvious focus on benefitting the EU to the detriment of the UK.

I listened to the Lib Dem senior hierarchy last night. The message was simple.

We haven't got the message across, we'll have to try harder to shove this message down people's throats until they swallow it.

Only one Lib Dem I saw understood the real situation. The Lib Dem's have completely and utterly failed to "get the message" of the electorate. The Lib Dems are not listening and until they do, they won't be getting the support they are used to. The last thing they want to do is keep cramming the same old message down the throats of the British people. Especially when the British people crammed a very different message down their throats in the only way possible to communicate with politicians today.

As the next 11 months goes on I expect Farage to tighten his team, purge the idiots and rabble rousers, police twitter and facebook and "train" candidates in what they can and can't say. Come the general election, I expect the "racist" smear to have died a death generally and real politics to be the mode of the day.

After all, Denmark topped the poll with an openly "racists" party, France topped the poll with an even more "racist" party, Germany voted in a Neo Nazi MEP. In terms of this, UKIP is a "racist pussycat" and will become more and more focused and controlled as we move to the general election.

Daniel Hannan was very pragmatic last night, I hope his voice is heard. The Lib Dems are on a course for disaster. Whatever they do now, even if they elect Cable as their leader, they can't wash off the stains of the last 4 years in 11 months. Perhaps the best thing that could happen now is for Clegg to be ousted, for Cable to win and extract the Lib Dems from Government and bring the Government down, leading to an early election where people remember that they do have power at the polls and Cameron is forced to work with Farage or let Labour in by default.

The next 3 months will be highly interesting. However I am in two minds. I'd like Clegg to go and the government to founder now, whilst the jubilation is high. Then again I'd like the shenanigans of the EU commission elections to be played out on the UK press before the general election. I'd also like people to pay attention and understand what it is they are part of.

Sadly what I like is of no matter. Clegg, I think, will stay, the EU elections will be a faint memory in the facebook life of the UK population come the next election and Labour is going to win it in a walk as UKIP shatters the Tory vote in the Tory marginals and lets Labour in. It will be very much the fault of Cameron who has built his ivory tower based on a Tory bedrock of support who do not agree with his stance on Europe. The last time we saw this was with Major. He was punished massively as well and the last thing we need is a Labour landslide.

[TheOstrich]

Couldn't agree more, Suff. I saw that interview, with Talking Head Danny Alexander pitted against an exasperated LibDem activist, (a Tony Fallon from Winchester, wasn't it?).

A good example of the political elite being totally out of touch with the grass-roots sentiment of the country.

I guess they can't stick any knives in Clegg yet - simply because there's no obvious successor .....

I also agree there were impressive acceptance speeches from both Daniel Hannan and Nigel Farage in Southampton last night - both succinct and to the point.

[cromwell]

The arrogance of our politicians is astounding. Their "message" has been heard, and lots of people don't like it.

[Suff]

Yes it was Tony Fallon ossie and they had had a really good local election result. But the warning was clear and taken by them. Not by the leadership.

[Workingman]

The LibDems are a busted flush and there is not much hope for them whoever is in charge. Cable's light has dimmed over the past few years and Alexander is invisible as a LibDem, many probably think that he is a Tory. The best they can hope for is to not slip further back than the days of Grimond or Thorpe when they only had a handful of MPs. There will always be a hard core of support for them, but whoever takes control is going to have one hell of a job to build on that.

UKIP, with the wind in their sails, will probably pick up a few MPs, but do not expect any general election earthquake. There might be a few tremors here and there, but that will be it.

In general terms the coalition has been good for the country, but, for me, there were a few times when the LibDems should have walked away. I would go further and say that in negotiations when setting it up there should have been a few red lines never to be crossed and that any attempt to do so would automatically break the bond. I feel sure that in any future negotiations, if there are any, the junior party will make sure that it will not be trampled on, as the LibDems have been.

We are essentially headed back to two party politics, but with more options at the fringes than in the past.

[Suff]

WM, the problem is not that UKIP may take dozens of seats in Westminster. The problem is more that they may take 10 - 20% of the vote in almost ALL seats and massively upset the balance in each seat. This will play hugely into Labour hands.

Due to the boundary changes made by Labour over 3 parliaments, the Tories now have to gain 6% more of the vote than Labour to beat them. The Lib Dems, those supposedly democracy loving people, exacerbated this slanted playing field by blocking the boundary changes. I'm pretty sure they did this to try and keep the Tories out of government at the next election and so they could coalition with Labour.

Whilst there will be some seats where Labour lose due to UKIP encroaching on their vote in their northern heartlands, the UKIP will have a much bigger impact on the Tories. They lost the last election because UKIP split their vote in nearly 30 constituencies and let either Labour or the Lib Dems in. Cameron knows this as does the party. If anyone thinks this is going to be any easier at the next election, after such an EU result less than a year away, they are kidding themselves.

As Daniel Hannan said on election night. During the negotiations for the AV electoral change, they changed the law so that one candidate could stand for two parties. I don't know the technical ins and outs of this, but I'd assume that one candidate can stand for both parties and take both parties votes, winning the election by being voted for by both sets of electorate. This, for me, would be the best of both worlds for Farage in the Tory marginals.

Perhaps if Farage takes seats from Cameron in the by elections (we won't have long to wait for Newark), but does not take from Labour, Cameron may come to this in the end. We have less than a year. He has some very hard decisions to take. He can't afford to take long because it will be seen as a panic measure if he does it later. Whereas he could do it now and sell it as "listening to the voters".

My take is this. If Cameron does not embrace UKP before this election, Labour will win the largest section of votes. Who will then ally with the Lib Dems to gain power.

This, at this juncture, is the worst possible event for Britain. We are still heading for £2tn in public debt, the books are not balanced, the economy is still only growing in the low % markers and the idiots in Labour would look to cap inflation by damaging the economic recovery. Such is their complete lack of understanding of how the UK economy (or any economy for that matter), works. We are not at a stage where we have money to throw around and Labour have ever bought votes even if it costs 26% inflation and the bankrupts of the British economy....

Over the next two months Cameron will be faced with a stark choice. Change or lose. Not something the Tories are good at, but they are also realists.

To my good humour Clegg has a very difficult choice. "Die Quietly". Because there is no further road for him in leading UK politics. His race is run, his power is gone except for destruction of the coalition and precipitating an early election which could only decimate the Lib Dems.

The only bright point in these doom and gloom ruminations is that the Lib Dems have reaped as they have sown. They have whored British power in Europe for all they could get. Only to have been punished by an electorate who, generally, do not believe that the EU is good for the UK.

Perhaps the electorate in the home counties, the midlands and the north have also looked at London and realise that if we keep this going for another 50 years or so, there will never be an effective British retreat from the EU, because we won't BE British any more. Hopefully that is the legacy the London vote will leave in the minds of the traditional British Voter. Perhaps it will remind them that this change in British society was a deliberate and conscious act of the Blairite Labour government?

Or not. On the day the Donkey may yet rule.