Macron or Le Pen

[Workingman]

Let the désordre commencer.

The BBC is spinning 23.7% as 24% and 21.7% as 21% a three point gap in favour of Macron, of course. However, French pollsters put it as close as 22-23%: either way.

The feeling is that many of the the hard left will opt out of the final so a lot will depend on where Fillon's centre-right voters pitch in.

[Suff]

In the end there are many more centrist voters than hard right and hard left are pragmatic, faced with a hard right candidate or a centrist candidate they can influence, they'll vote for the centrist.

Because of the two rounds system, the French get a chance to rethink their options and then either enable or block as there are only two candidates left in the run off. This tends to make for a more stable system but also means that any real change is almost impossible to achieve. The only way for this to happen is if a hard left and hard right candidate were to make it through to the second round. Making it a very hard decision for the centrists.

I expect Le Pen to poll slightly over 30% in the second round and be snowballed by Macron. After all, voting Macron into the second round, a total nobody, is a very big step for the French.

If the French had a sudden death first past the post system they would have to think much more carefully about who they voted for.

[cromwell]

It will be pitched thus. Le Pen is a very dangerous person to vote for. I'm sure that the French media are just as good at preceding her name with "the far-right candidate"..

There will not be much of a spotlight on Macron, which is a shame. Because I look at Macron and think, "here comes the latest version of Tony Blair". His own party initials are his initials En Marche, Emmanual Macron. Egotistical, takes a good photograph, no one knows what he really stands for because he is very light on detail.

He is a globalist pretty boy like Blair, Obama or Justin Trudeau. He will have all the media behind him, he will win and it will be presented as a great triumph.

Then he will come into power and we will see that the honeymoon period will not be a long one.

[Suff]

The thing is that the only person not lying their backside off about the French economy and the impact both the Euro and the EU are having on France itself; is Le Pen. They won't vote for her and keep on voting for the liars. So we are running into a situation where the French are disillusioned with each successive president after 2 years.

All the presidents except Le Pen are offering things they can't deliver and are found out within 2 years and this is a cycle which will only be broken when someone finally stands up and starts speaking the truth. At which point the EU "organs" will come storming in calling it all lies, ably assisted by the establishment.

I think that if the Le Pen message had come from any party other than a reformed Neo Nazi party it would have been given enough credence to win. The big problem with France is that no party other than an ex Neo Nazi party is willing to make these statements. UKIP simply is not viable in France so they are stuck with more of the same or vote for the equivalent of the BNP.

French voters are also more dogmatic and less enquiring than UK voters. The are ideologically driven in a large part, something the EU, Blairism and successive softer Tory leaders, has actually driven the UK away from.

Brand loyalty, Party loyalty and Ideology loyalty is very strong in France, much more akin to the US than the UK.

[cromwell]

The thing is that the only person not lying their backside off about the French economy and the impact both the Euro and the EU are having on France itself; is Le Pen. They won't vote for her and keep on voting for the liars. So we are running into a situation where the French are disillusioned with each successive president after 2 years.

Yes, I can believe that.
It gets even more complicated though when you look at the En Marche brand.

En Marche has only existed for one year. Therefore it has no representatives in the French legislature. So if Macron wins, which he surely will, we will have an En Marche President with no MP's.

The legislative elections are in June. Macron has to put up candidates and win. Will he win? Or will his En Marche lot do badly in the June election, leaving him the lamest of lame ducks?

[Suff]

... Lame.

But, as you can see. Every lame president leads to more and more votes for FN. Eventually something has to give and France is simply not doing well enough economically and is not benefitting enough from the Euro low interest rates, for the people to want to vote for the status quo.

Deep Joy.

Meanwhile parties in my area are using Brits to lead the party and swing the vote. Then they replace the leader with a Frenchman as Mayor. Even when the Brits is a naturalised Frenchman and speaks flawless French. Eventually that's going to backfire too. Although the Brits will never vote for Le Pen, a bit like Turkeys voting for Christmas.

[Workingman]

We now hear that Le Pen is to 'step aside' as the leader of FN as she concentrates on the election. Is it a good move?

By removing herself from the toxicity of the party she is turning it into a personality contest. Will it work ... she has to try something.

The ABLP (Anybody But Le Pen) parties are ganging up on her even though they do not like Macron.

[cromwell]

I think I've worked this out now.

Eighteen months ago in France there was a crisis. The traditional left party, the Socialists, obviously had no chance of winning. The Republicains, the party of the right, were having problem with their next Presidential candidate. There were scandals either actual or emerging around their probably candidates, Sarkozy and Fillon.

Both the Socialists and the Republicans believe in the EU and in Globalism. Both were struggling. There was the distinct possibility that one of the fringe candidates, Le Pen or Melanchon would win.

Big problem. MASSIVE problem. Because both Le Pen and Melanchon are anti-EU and anti Globalism.

And before you know it - Hey Presto! Here comes young Mr Macron. a former socialist member and member of Holande's socialist government suddenly breaks away and forms his own party.

He is young, he is personable, he takes a good photograph and he is carrying no baggage. No longer a member of the socialist government and no scandals surrounding him. (Though his romantic situation is somewhat unusual).

The Globalists have found their candidate.

[Workingman]

What!

You mean that the Blderbergers and Illuminati, faced with losing power, set up a new party to step into the void?

That would never happen.

Would it?

[cromwell]

Maybe so, maybe no.

I don't know about that, or if Macron just made the same assessment a couple of years ago and saw an opening for himself.

What I do know is that things had stayed as they were there was a very real chance that Le Pen or Melanchon - both enti-EU, both anti_glabalism - could have become French President.

So they didn't stay the same. The status quo have their candidate.

But if he just delivers in the next five years a repeat of the last five years, what then? What new gymnastics will be dreamed up to keep things as they are?