Pan B == Plan A-

[Suff]

Great and we have miles and miles of drivel in the press about what May has done.

WM was spot on when he said that the PM went to the EU and agreed the deal without setting the bounds via parliament. Now Parliament has demanded that May come up with an alternative, in 3 DAYS, without contacting the EU or ratifying if that alternative is even possible.

I mournfully submit that the entire parliament is equally as defective as May's cabinet. You can't complain about one thing, because it was done in a way you don't like, then do exactly the same thing in return.

Going back to possibilities.

May could not put the same deal to Parliament vote a second time without modifying it. That, however does not mean that May has to come up with a Totally Different deal in order for parliament to vote on it. It just needs to be different.

Now comes the fun part. Cabinet ministers are ramping up their constituencies for an election on Feb 28th according to rumours. Of course we have fixed term parliaments so why would they even be thinking of that?

There are, now, only three ways of having an election. Naturally as the parliament reaches 5 years, after a vote in parliament to dissolve the parliament and have an election (May already used that one), or after the government is defeated in a confidence vote and a new government cannot be formed within two weeks.

May has nowhere to turn and no way out of the situation she is in. She can't step down as she would never survive the Tory long knives. She can't get any more concessions from the EU, they think they have her backed into a corner and are sure they will win. Labour has set out a set of conditions which state that the only way they will vote for a deal to leave the EU is if we don't actually leave the EU. Worst of all, the DUP won't allow the EU to change the status of NI in any deal they vote for. Over and above that there are at least 50 Tories who think they can break Brexit if they just cause enough trouble.

The country does not want another referendum and the only possible and viable, option left is Hard Brexit. Unless something changes and nothing, apparently, is going to change.

So what option does May have left? The only possible one for May is an election. Remembering that may committed to not fightin8g the next election. This situation means May can step down and avoid the juggernaut rapidly waiting to crash into any PM foolish enough to attempt to drive Brexit. The next question is, "How does May achieve an election?"

This is interesting because May has said she won't go for an election, she won't have a referendum and she won't stand down. She has also said that the Parliament either votes for a Brexit deal she offers or we bang out with No Deal. So she, herself, has limited her possible options. The only viable option I see for May now is to make the 29th Jan vote a vote of confidence in the Government. This puts all Tories on the spot. They either vote for the deal or they bring the government down, something they will find almost impossible to survive in the Tory Party. Labour will, of course, vote against. This leaves the DUP with their confidence and supply deal. That deal is explicit in that Brexit cannot change the status of NI in the UK. Any deal which changes that status will not be supported and the DUP will not prop up the government in a confidence vote.

In political terms this is a '"Win Win" for May. Because if she wins the vote, then she continues as PM and delivers Brexit. If she loses the vote then the government falls and she stands down, honouring her commitment, without ever backing down. Given that May is in a Lose-Lose cycle right now, forcing a vote of confidence must be almost unbearably tempting.

7 days. It will be most interesting to watch. If May does not make this a vote of confidence, then she's not half as clever as people think she is.... The only person in parliament, currently, displaying less sense than May, is Corbyn.

At least politics has moved on from dull and boring into light amusement for the masses.

[Workingman]

That is a pretty good assessment. Suff.

It shows just how divided May is from her party, MPs, reality and the country. How divided the Tory and Labour parties are. How divided parliament is, and how divided the country is.

It also shows that there is no way out unless something gives, be that May, her cabinet or MPs. The public has no say in this. Yes there are polls, but they are only believed if they chime with one's personal view. Any that fall outside that narrow view are ignored and often rubbished. MPs pick and choose to suit their own agenda.

I do not have a solution to this mess, and I think it is fair to say that nobody does.

[AliasAggers]

I do not have a solution to this mess, and I think it is fair to say that nobody does.

The only solution that would work, in my humble opinion, is to have the country run by - wait for it - a dictator.
Before you express terms of horror, forget about Hitler - there have been, in the past, many examples of successful
terms of office by dictators. It is becoming increasingly obvious that our type of democracy is completely useless.
There would, of course, have to be some fool-proof ways of making sure the right person is appointed for the office
- but surely that would not be too difficult, would it?

[Workingman]

It is certainly true that there have been benevolent dictators.

However, and here is the thing, almost all dictators, modern ones, have had extremely strong personalities with a clear view of where they wanted to go. They were also very clever in selecting members of their inner circles.

Good luck finding one of those in the UK today.

[Suff]

Yep and they have all had one slight character flaw. Arguing with them is a death sentence.

[AliasAggers]

Yep and they have all had one slight character flaw. Arguing with them is a death sentence.

Yes, Suff, You have a point there.

[Workingman]

It looks as though, whatever the outcome, Brexit could split both Labour and the Conservatives. That would play havoc with elections and raise calls for proportional representation (PR) and probably a referendum (another one ) on which method would be most suited to the UK's needs.

It is true that we had a referendum on the alternative vote (AV) system, but it was a binary yes / no question on only that process. We have never had a vote on general PR principle nor on the various options, and there are quite a few.

If we end up with Cons, Lab, Cons 2.0, Lab 2.0, Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, Greens, multiple NI parties and Independents there is a danger with FPTP that the biggest party could gain power with only ~20% of the vote. They would inevitably lead to hung parliaments and forced coalitions decided by those in the Westminster bubble.

At least with PR the electorate gets more of a say over the size of the parties and that would lead to negotiated coalitions.

[cromwell]

The politicians want us to have another vote and this time vote the way that they want us to, thus getting them off the hook that Cameron placed them on.

There is certainly no solution that will please everyone. Stay in, and contempt for politicians (who don't forget, promised to implement the result of the referendum) will go off the scale. Come out, and we will allegedly be out of the EU but with a political class who want to get us straight back in.

The most intractable problem is that we are supposed to be a representative democracy and demonstrably we are not. Westminster is a virtual monoculture of ideas, the country isn't.

One thing I would like to say is that immigration is being put forward as the only reason for the result. Not to me. If I have a choice between an educated employable European and an uneducated unemployable from a third world country, who am I going to choose? Exactly.

[Suff]

One thing I would like to say is that immigration is being put forward as the only reason for the result. Not to me. If I have a choice between an educated employable European and an uneducated unemployable from a third world country, who am I going to choose? Exactly.

Very true and extremely true of the vast majority of Leave voters. However if Remain can slur the Leave campaign with Immigration, then they can call them Racists and Elitists and Bigots and Far Right agitators. Effectively closing down all debate and forcing Remain.

I maintain that had the Scottish Referendum not happened the year before and the end result, plus aftermath bloodbath, there would have been a vote for Remain. 1.52 million Scots voted to Leave, had even half of them voted to Remain, remain would have won. This is also borne out by the results at the last General election. Until we voted Leave, Scotland had never voted in more than 1 tory MP since Major's second election. At the last election the Scots voted in 13 Tory MP's specifically to support Leave.

For me this is a direct consequence of the 2015 Scottish Referendum and the raging fury when "Project Fear" was exposed for everything it really was.

Roll forward to the EU referendum and "Project Fear" is rolled out all over again. Except, this time, it is visible for what it really is.

WM this is NOT aimed at you as we all know you don't believe us to be like this.

Now Remainers have no option but to try and brand Leavers as racist bigots who would like to shoot Labour MP's dead with a pistol. Because, as has been said already, Project Fear has moved to Project Hysteria and still Leavers don't believe it.

My own personal experience of talking to people is that people from split households, with one being a wavering Remainer, have moved to a solid Leave. Immigration? Not a bit of it. Opportunity is the word I hear and also the fact that the promised coming of Armageddon did not happen. In fact, truth be told, a bit of the opposite happened.

Note, Remain didn't promise that the UK would fall apart after we had left, Remain shouted from the rooftops that the country would collapse purely by daring to vote Leave and introducing uncertainty into the economy.

Roll forward to just prior to the cut off data for A50 and our economy is still stronger than virtually all the remainder of the EU. Yes, between the EU and the pitifully wimbling MP's, sufficient uncertainty has been introduced into the economy to slow growth and reduce some investment. However, today, more than 2 years after the vote, the situation remains the same. Where the hell is the Armageddon which was promised for the day after the vote?

Second Referendum? I suspect that those who are not scared to death about Brexit and the responsibility it will bring to the UK parliament, are scared to death of a much larger Remain vote resulting even with No Deal on the table.

That is the Elephant in the room.

[Workingman]

Re Cromwell's post: Very true and extremely true of the vast majority of Leave voters. However if Remain can slur the Leave campaign with Immigration, then they can call them Racists and Elitists and Bigots and Far Right agitators. Effectively closing down all debate and forcing Remain.

Give over. The Leave campaigns majored on immigration and FOM. It was part of the core of the overall campaigns.

Project Fear predicted Armageddon 'after' we left the EU.

We are still 'in' yet things have already started. Redwood and JR-M, both leavers, have moved funds to the EU. JLR is moving production to Slovakia. P&O ferries is reflagging its fleet to Cyprus. Dyson, another leaver, is moving HQ to Singapore. Sony is moving to its HQ to the Netherlands. Some banks are moving direct client and back ooffice functions to EU countries, they include Société Générale, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, HSBC, Barclays, RBS and Lloyds, to name a few.

The government's own published papers predict a shortage of medicines and some fresh foods, delays at ports, some flight disruptions and the need for drivers to get green card insurance when travelling to the EU. All of this before we have left.

Also May has tried to play three groups off against one another. She hit the EU with "no deal is better than a bad deal". She hit Remain MP's with "its my deal or no deal", and she hit the ERG and hard 'Leave' MP's with "its my deal or no Brexit"

The tactic has not worked, and looks like never working, but she is too stubborn to accept Project Reality.

May is a bigger problem than all the other 649 MPs (Leave and Remain) and the EU 27.