Russian Airliner, 'shot down'?

[Workingman]

One minute it is at 31,000 feet at 400 knots, the next is has dropped 1,500mj (nearly 5,000ft) and to 63 knots in 67 seconds, then it goes off radar.

That sounds like a "shoot down" to me and Lufthansa and Air France are refusing to fly over Sinai.

It will be interesting to hear what comes out of investigations in the next few day. Egypt says it is not sure, Russia thinks differently.

[cromwell]

It will all come out in the wash I suppose. Though when Russia started to physically back the Shia Iranians they left themselves open to Sunni retaliation.

What the Sunnis don't realise as yet is that the Russians are not as politically correct as the West. So if certain groups did shoot down this Russian airliner, then stand by - because the Russians will get revenge one way or another.

[Workingman]

Under normal circumstances planes do not drop 1,500m in just over a minute, that suggests a catastrophic in-flight event.

With even the poorest serviced and older aircraft these events are rare. I smell a rat with the explanations given so far.

[pederito1]

Something very nasty should be done to anyone who gave or sold a ground to air missile to ISIS or any other sophisticated weapon for that matter. Of course it could have been a bomb on board.

[Suff]

Apparently there are a lot of disjointed pieces of information going around.

Here’s what I have read.

It broke up and went down
There was no technical fault

OK so if it was technically sound and it broke up and crashed to the ground we have a few options..

It hit something else, like a drone or a military jet
It had an internal catastrophic failure. Except the plane was sound so it would likely have been a bomb
It was shot down.

I can’t see many other options. Birds don’t tend to fly that high and even if they did they would have taken out the engines, not the structure of the plane…

In cases like this the Russian response tends to be “robust”. Go for it is my take and if they manage to wipe out every single UK IS fanatic, I’ll be reasonably comfortable. At least we won’t have to listen to the UK press going on about Cameron “murdering” UK nutters who murder British citizens with swords…

I do wonder if IS have fully thought through the whole “terrorist” as opposed to “country” thing. It’s one thing hiding amongst the masses and murdering and causing terror. But when you want to hold land and have subjects to fund your international terrorism, you become a legitimate target. The nail that stands up gets hammered down. Russia may have removed the sickle, but the hammer still remains.

[Kaz]

I think most likely a bomb on board, from what I have read and heard

[Workingman]

Seven airlines are refusing to fly over Sinai and Airbus has said nothing about any concerns with its fleet of A32x aircraft.

Those two things tell me a lot more than the mainstream media is saying.

We will have to wait for the results from the Black Boxes, but even then I expect that Airbus will want to do independent checks.

[Suff]

Airbus will have received an advisory note about the crash and it won't be lifted until the full investigation is completed and the plane has been declared free of defect.

So they will have a large incentive to be involved.

One group is saying it was hit by something and another is saying it was not.

However there is one telling point in the radar data. The plane suddenly climbed, twice, before falling out of the air. There is also the sudden and complete cesession of al Pilot data.

This reminds me a lot of the 747 off the east coast of the US. It had an internal explosion which, quite literally, blew the front off the plane. The 747 then climbed about 5,000 feet before plunging to it's final resting place in the ocean. The major difference with the 747, then and the Airbus is that the Airbus has fly by wire. Even in the absence of all pilots, the computers will try and keep the plane in the correct flightpath and I don't think those computers are in the nose of the plane.

So I could see the plane suddenly climb, be corrected and climb again before breaking up and falling to land.

That would indicate a bomb of quite some size which was carefully located for maximum impact. Which would mean ground staff collusion in Egypt...

Food for thought. Right now I have two concerns. The families who have lost loved one's and the safety of current travelling passengers. Everything else, in my mind, has second priority.

[Workingman]

I am perplexed by photos from the crash site - something is missing.

One shows the wings and the fuselage in front of them, all the way to the cockpit. It indicates that the aircraft "pancaked" into the ground rather than hitting nose first. This is the only shot showing any real fire damage and that is mainly restricted to the wings, which are also the plane's fuel tanks, so no real surprise there.

There are many others showing soft furnishings and personal effects, luggage and clothing. Again no fire damage.

There are also shots of the tail skid, the rudder and elevators, rear door, and a few rows of seats forward of the aft bulkhead. Again no fire damage.

The bit missing is the portion of the plane aft of the wings and forward of the few rows before the aft bulkhead. Depending upon the plane's seating layout this is about six or seven rows of seats. Either this portion of the plane disintegrated and there are no sizeable sections to show, or we are not being shown it for some reason.

[Suff]

If it went down in a tail first stall, then it would have crumpled and torn off the rear end of the plane. there would not be a lot recognisable from it. In the centre section, on the other hand, quite a lot would have survived.

Given that it went from over 400 knots to 65knots and fell like a stone, I'd say it stalled out and went in tail first.

Which would also match with the sudden spike in altitude before plunging the way it did.