A Scottish spanner in the Brexit works.

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Re: A Scottish spanner in the Brexit works.

Postby Workingman » 17 May 2018, 17:47

Suff wrote:I wasn't slagging off the EU. I was slagging off the idea that

a) We should have a plan, exclusively, that defines our Brexit.

You mean that Brexit was not in any way defined? So how come 17.4 million voted for it? Spin? Shouldn't there have been some sort of plan, a roadmap, for where the UK would end up? There was never one, was there? We had a bus, sovereignty, immigration, but no policies and no detail, to achieve anything - and we still don't. It was all a dream - now a nightmare.

I would love to see the EU come out and tell the UK that you are leaving in March, 2019, sort yourselves out.

I voted to Remain, but if we are going to 'Leave' then let us do it properly. Let us go the full Brexit route: no negotiations; no transition period; no CU or SM: let us go for it.

Let's face it, the 'negotiations' are a Remainer attempt to limit the Brexit damage. Rather than bitching that the EU is not playing fair you Brexiteers should want nothing at all to do with them. Leave means Leave, doesn't it?
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Re: A Scottish spanner in the Brexit works.

Postby Suff » 17 May 2018, 19:37

Workingman wrote:Yes, that really is the same WTO whose rules that the EU, our biggest trading partner, apparently breaks with monotonous regularity and is the only trading nation / bloc to do so.


WTO disputes...

Counting the entirety of the EU and the EEA and the EU communities and individual countries within the EU, I get:

USA: 140
Russian Federation: 8
EU and it's environs: 107

As for falling back on WTO rules? Let's face it, our largest single export market, with whom we have a trade surplus, is WTO. I don't call the EU a single export market. It isn't, it just has the name. It may be "tariff" free, but it sure as hell is not regulation free.

Do I think it will be easy? No, of course I don't, I'm not stupid. Do I think it will be worth it? Hell yes!
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Re: A Scottish spanner in the Brexit works.

Postby Workingman » 17 May 2018, 19:56

Suff, nothing personal, but the Brexit camp has been ever so inconsistent. You might not call the EU a single export market, but the word does.

In the run up to the ref we heard a lot about Remain's Project Fear from Brexiteers, yet since their win we have heard sod all from them about their Project Nirvana/Shangri La/Utopia. All we have had is bitching that the EU is not playing fair. Bless.

You lot won, live with it.

Do I think it will be worth it? Hell no, not a chance!
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Re: A Scottish spanner in the Brexit works.

Postby Suff » 17 May 2018, 20:01

Workingman wrote:You mean that Brexit was not in any way defined? So how come 17.4 million voted for it? Spin? Shouldn't there have been some sort of plan, a roadmap, for where the UK would end up? There was never one, was there? We had a bus, sovereignty, immigration, but no policies and no detail, to achieve anything - and we still don't. It was all a dream - now a nightmare.


And the other side had a plan? Certainly scare everyone to death and carry on paying an increasing sum of billions into the EU and be fobbed off for everything we really need, not want, need.

Workingman wrote:The UK can come up with 1001 proposals, but what it cannot do is demand that the EU accepts them, never mind negotiate them. We are the ones leaving and we are going to have to accept whatever that turns out to be.


And I said you can come up with any plan you want but to exit the EU requires the EU to be willing to work to that plan. I shot down the whole "We should have a plan" because the actual exit strategy will be a compromise between what the EU want and what the UK want. That is _not_ slagging the EU off and it is _not_ slagging the government off. It is the truth.

What I am getting at is the disingenuous way that everyone who is opposed to leaving the EU seems to think that we should have some deep detailed plan for how we are going to get out.

Let me talk about the last Member state that had a plan. It was a plan that had red lines, it had enough detail to be going on with, it was clear and it was sold to the people as something that they were "going to sell and make the EU accept".

That Member state spent the better part of the next year being told "There is not enough detail". In fact what they were actually being told was "NO". So that member state played the game, wrote more and more and more. Every time they were told "Not enough detail". Eventually they got to the "Enough detail" at the 11th hour when disaster was about to strike. And they were told "NO".

That Member State was Greece. Remember that?

There is a whole world of difference between the UK and Greece. The GDP of Greece is a rounding error on EU GDP. The UK is 3% of WORLD GDP, let alone EU. The UK is the second largest economy in the EU.

More important than all of that is the fact that the UK is leaving and not coming back.

The only plan the UK needs, to make the very best exit possible comes down to 5 words. "OK we're leaving, forget it".

That is how we reduced a €100bn (or more) exit bill to £39bn. Because when we got to the 11th hour, the EU was unwilling to lose that £39 billion in the hope that they would get €100bn or more.

The only people who want to see a "Plan" in detail, are those who want to screw up Brexit. We don't need a plan, the EU will produce every plan anyone ever wanted. All we have to do is say NO to the bits we don't want.

After all, WE are leaving and THEY can't afford to let us go. Don't be fooled by the whole "they're only 12% of EU GDP BS. We are about 30% of the money that makes the EU work. We are the gravy they use to fund all their petty little schemes. We are €15bn a year, net, to their budget and that number keeps on going up.

Don't tell me we need a plan to get out. We don't. They do. Desperately. What we have to do is Hold Fast and take no BS from the EU. That will ensure the best Brexit of all.

If it all does, finally, go down the tubes, the adjustment will take 3-5 years and it will be over. If we do a bad deal with the EU, we will be living it for decades.

1st lesson of the Army Officer Training on Orders (the plan). "The first casualty of battle is the Plan". I remember, clearly.
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Re: A Scottish spanner in the Brexit works.

Postby Workingman » 17 May 2018, 20:55

Erm... Greece never invoked A50 so its position within the EU is nothing at all similar to the UK wanting to leave. Irrelevant.

It follows that the GDP figures of the two are also irrelevant.

So, we reduced the media (not the real) figure of €100bn to £39bn because we are so strong. Good one.

And they, the EU, cannot let us go because they cannot afford to! Seems that they think differently. Ooops. Please do stop banging on with the figures... they seem to think that they are not quite right and are not in the least frightened by them. I wonder why?

They need us more than we need them, don't they? It's what you Brexiters keep telling us. What if that is not the case? Just asking. They seem to think otherwise.

Army oficer training. Also irrelevant. This ain't a battle and we don't have a sodding plan anyway.
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Re: A Scottish spanner in the Brexit works.

Postby Suff » 17 May 2018, 21:50

Workingman wrote:Erm... Greece never invoked A50 so its position within the EU is nothing at all similar to the UK wanting to leave. Irrelevant.

It follows that the GDP figures of the two are also irrelevant.

So, we reduced the media (not the real) figure of €100bn to £39bn because we are so strong. Good one.

And they, the EU, cannot let us go because they cannot afford to! Seems that they think differently. Ooops. Please do stop banging on with the figures... they seem to think that they are not quite right and are not in the least frightened by them. I wonder why?

They need us more than we need them, don't they? It's what you Brexiters keep telling us. What if that is not the case? Just asking. They seem to think otherwise.

Army oficer training. Also irrelevant. This ain't a battle and we don't have a sodding plan anyway.


Greece is extremely relevant as they were the last Member State negotiating with the EU. Only a fool ignores that evidence.

WM, you have wilfully ignored the fact that the EU is a very fragile mechanism which needs to be balanced very finely. You can't take out the second largest net contributor to the system and expect it to keep on functioning. They know that.

If the EU had us over a barrel, they would have said "It's 100bn or sod off". In fact it is the EU which keeps on coming back, over and over again, to try another bite at the very tempting cherry of UK funds.

No Greece didn't trigger A50, they were asking for something.

Note WE are not asking for something. The EU are. Well not asking really, they demand. We are saying NO. Boot on the other foot. Yes we triggered A50 and the EU is left in the invidious position of having no choice but to negotiate with us. Something, I can assure you, they are not enjoying in the slightest.

You should read the EU press about their new budget, sans UK funds. Seriously pissed does not even begin to touch it. A little bit of reality sinking in over there as to just how much power they gave to the commission on Brexit and just how badly they are going to have to pay for that lack of backbone.

I repeat. We don't need a plan. The EU will produce that. We just need to keep telling them that it is not suitable until it meets what we want. Just like they did to Greece.

What nobody wants to hear is that this is going to go to the 11th hour and then both the EU27 and the UK Parliament are going to be given a take it or leave it choice. Not because the Tory party wants this. Oh No. Because that is how the EU works and that is what the EU wants....

Plan? Forget it. The more we plan the more we give the EU a handle to beat us with. So far that approach has worked extremely well. Why change? Because Labour and the Lib Dems want to tie us to the EU in a way that will make Brexit a failure? Somehow I don't think so.

Every time I hear "We don't have a plan" I translate that into "We want to screw Brexit". Hence I have very little tolerance for that.
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