Leicester was a dry run.

[cromwell]

I'm much less impressed with the journalists who constantly ask the same questions even after those explanations.

Same here. They aren't getting the answers that they want, answers that would meet their pre-determined agenda.
The media have behaved appallingly and I fully expect that they will go on doing so.

[cromwell]

A friend of mine is Muslim, she’s a bloody intelligent woman but she’s been moaning on social media this morning about how this is obviously racially motivated and that it shouldn’t have been announced until after they’d celebrated Eid

Yes, let's have big gatherings, get people together to catch the virus, then all go back home and spread it far and wide. Makes perfect sense.
I worked with an Asian guy, we had been friends since the 80's so he would say things to me that he wouldn't to others. One of which was that he wouldn't allow his children to marry white people. I had no problem with that, then or now. His children, his opinion. Nor would i ever grass him up for it. But I did have a wry smile comparing the situation with what would have happened if I had said such a thing in reverse. Arrest, pious speeches by politicians, disgrace. Whilst in his case the authorities would have walked ten miles over broken glass rather than do anything.

Ho hum. Off topic but it does explain how a sense of entitlement has been allowed to build up in some communities, how "it's their culture" has been the excuse for avoiding hard decisions.

[Suff]

Meanwhile, whilst we obsess over the small rise in the UK, Mexico and Iran have overtaken the UK in cases, Mexico has overtaken the UK in deaths and the UK has exceeded twice the number of German tests. The UK will be at 3 time Spanish and Italian tests in the next 10 days or so.

Other countries looking like overtaking the UK in the next two weeks? Colombia, Pakistan and Saudi. India will exceed UK deaths also.

Whilst checking all this, there is another stat which is never talked about. The one where the EU 28 (if we still had the UK in the EU), has more than 178,000 deaths. Comparing this to the US gives a totally different picture of just how this pandemic is going.

We should be taking logical decisions and not just running around panicking every time a number hits something the press might beat the government with.

[cromwell]

We should be taking logical decisions and not just running around panicking every time a number hits something the press might beat the government with.

Which is exactly what is happening. OK infections are going up. But surely the NHS is better placed now to deal with covid cases? Insofar as they must have learned which treatment will be more effective for the patient? I would be very surprised if we see deaths reach their former heights.

[Workingman]

I think this is what is bugging many people. Deaths have hit a plateau on a seven day count back, and the raw number of cases is only rising because we are now doing much more testing. The percentage in the population has hardly changed and the national 'R' number has sat stubbornly at about R=0.8 to 1.0 for weeks and they include periods of "full" lockdown, protests, beaches, raves and VE day, easing and so on.

It is starting to look as though nobody, anywhere, knows the best way to proceed - it's all trial and error. There is no known way to eradicate this thing so we are going to need vaccines and then learn how to live with it.

[TheOstrich]

.... the national 'R' number has sat stubbornly at about R=0.8 to 1.0 for weeks and they include periods of "full" lockdown, protests, beaches, raves and VE day, easing and so on.

However local R numbers appear to be increasing in some areas, such as the North West and the South West. Latest figures show both are 0.8 to 1.1
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

I appreciate it's a wide range, but to my mind, it's a bit of a knife-edge ....

[miasmum]

Help me get my head round this one please

We say there are more cases because there is more testing? But, the people testing positive have to have the virus to test positive, even if they weren't tested they would still have it. Testing doesn't increase the amount of people with the virus it increases the amount we know about. In which case without testing, and without instructing those people to isolate, why doesn't it go through the roof? I honestly wonder if it is as infectious as they would have us believe in the wider environment, not including care homes and hospitals

[Workingman]

Shell, you and Ossie have spotted the conundrums that are puzzling many people. We have got, and have had, local spikes for all sorts of reasons yet we have not had the predicted outbreaks due to the uncontrolled mass gatherings I mentioned earlier. What is going on?

The global death rate from known cases is below 6% and the recovery rate from closed cases is just above 94%. There are currently just over 6 million active cases and only 1% are classed as serious or critical. Those figures might well be down to all the lockdowns and other actions taken, but 18 million cases and 670,000 deaths out of a population of 7.5 billion beg the questions of whether Covid is as contagious as first thought and if it is as seriously infectious to us all as was feared?

[Suff]

Correct shell, we just know about more cases. Antibody testing in London, extrapolated out to the entire London population (we have not tested them all), come out to 1.5m for London alone.

In short, far more people were infected at the beginning than we recorded and so when we test more we see more. It doesn't mean it is worse than it was or even getting much worse, just that we are looking harder.

I have heard, internally, that these raised cases are, predominently, not producing serious symptoms or stressing the NHS.

All of this would not be worth noting if it were not for sensational press and governments which are reacting to the sensational press.

[miasmum]

Thank you both, that was what I thought but presumed I was thinking wrongly