Lie after lie

[Suff]

On the 1,000 per day, the politicians have finally reached a point where it "will" be their fault if they do it wrong. Whilst we had no vaccines and no real way of controlling the virus, they could be excused for flip flopping and trying to keep the economy above the water.

Now, with a solution tantalisingly close, politicians are on the hook for doing this rollout correctly and saving lives. Now they have little choice, they have to restrain the spread of the virus by controlling people until the vaccine can help them. Israel is showing that their vaccinations stop 66% of transmission. That, plus some mild controls, could work for the UK. But until we have at least 50% of the UK population vaccinated, that situation is not possible.

So we are back to lockdowns until the number of infections has dropped to a level that they believe the vaccination can cope with and hold down.

There are real numbers behind this but by the time it reaches the politicians they are buried. By the time they reach the press, they are warped out of all recognition.

[cromwell]

I understand, Cromwell, and you have my sympathy.

Thanks WM.
We'll have to see what the next reason for staying in lockdown will be.
When's the next announcement when we'll be told "One last effort.... etc" again? February 22nd?

[Workingman]

The problem with all this is that there are no 'known' numbers to work with: everywhere is different. They all have different climates, age profiles, ethnic mixes, general health profiles, population densities, healthcare systems etc. The absolute numbers, percentage coverage, and timings working in one place may be wrong for somewhere else.

That is why I have said all along that we need to stop all the whatifery, long-term prediction, making promises, and plucking round numbers out of thin air because they sound good. Just keep monitoring all the time and act as required.

I see that the UK has just about hit the original number of vaccinations for the top four priority groups of some 13.9 million by mid February, but for some reason it was rounded up to 15 million by the 15th. Some of those vaccinations sensibly went to people outside the top four groups because people either did not turn up or refused the 'offer'. The government has actually done well on this, but if the number by close of play on the 15th is 14,999,999 the media will go ballistic.

[Suff]

People want answers as to whether they can book a holiday in the summer and October and they don't understand why the government can't just tell them......

Or at least that is what the press are saying.

If we had a bit more understanding and a lot less poking at Government, they might get an answer. It might not be the one they want, but it might be closer to reality than anything they will accept today.

Mrs S, #1 daughter and I were planning to go to Cape Verde for a holiday this fall. We scrapped it last year and pushed it back to 2022. Because, simply, there is no certainty that the vaccine will have been able to do its job by then or that even if it does, that other restrictions from other countries may still be in force.

Prudence says that 2021 is as much a casualty of Covid as 2020 was and that anything we see in 2021, given the "waaaaaaaaiiiiiittttt" to approve a vaccine; is a huge bonus to be enjoyed if/when it comes. "People" need to get a bit of perspective and Mrs S needs to stop reading the bloody DM so I don't have to take the emotional rollercoaster with her.

[Workingman]

I have been looking at the numbers and the rate of decrease in cases has been steady. In the past month they have dropped to about 20% of the peak. This tends to point to the lockdown AND the vaccines working in tandem. The steep slope will obviously flatten as we get fewer cases per day, but the signs are good. Hospitalisations and deaths will eventually follow the trend.

However, they are meaningless in terms of predictions for Easter, May Day Bank Holiday or summer holidays. We need to see a sustained period of low numbers and the same effort in vaccinations before we even THINK about where we might be come whenever.

Don't bow to the media clamour for promises of dates and times, just keep doing what is working and go with the flow. The public can handle the truth.

[Suff]

The public can handle the truth.

And the press will ensure that the public who can't handle the truth will be on the front pages. Every. Single. Day.