Workingman wrote:American CDC fears that the strain is getting stronger over time.
Death rate has dropped from an initial near 90% to 52% today. In line with mutating viruses in an outbreak where the latter stages of the virus mutations become less and less lethal. Even HIV has gone this way.
Workingman wrote:Liberian cases are said to be rising exponentially.
Latest figures were new 40 cases per day from 31 Aug to 5th Sept. Granted most of them were Liberian, but, even more important, countries further out experienced single digit or 0 increases in that 5 day period for new infections.
Workingman wrote:WHO says it is spreading faster than our capability to manage it and that there is a shortage of equipment (field hospitals) drugs and personnel to manage it.
In LIberia perhaps. But not outside. Even Guinea saw instances of new cases drop.
Workingman wrote:We might not be there yet, but there will come a time when we do have to quarantine people coming in from Africa and also to lock-in areas where the virus is known to be active. It was done with smallpox and in earlier times, leprosy.
Perhaps we will, if LIberia contnues to get infections at this rate. However I did run the figures yesterday and there are no new countries which are developing cases (local infections as opposed to imported one's on planes etc) and of the countries which are still producing local infections, most are dropping.
If this can happen where people can simply walk over the border, then I believe it's time for a bit of cautious optimism. The ceiling has not fallen in yet and, as I said at the outset, the most damaging part of these infections is within two jumps of the index patient.