Who do they think they're kidding?

[Workingman]

Nor will the rUK electorate.

Future PMs won't have to pretend to be Scottish to keep the Scots sweet, in fact Scottish heritage will be something to be kept well quiet.

[Suff]

When you think about it, it's like one of those celebrity marriages where they break up through infidelity of one partner. All over the press, all hanging out there, full of emotion for the world to see.

A little more decorum would be better. Even better still neutral counselling would have been much better decades ago. Now we're in for the whole knock them down and drag out fight to the bitter end. Even colleagues at work are following it. One Belgian colleague said to me, today, "It will be Belgium next". Although I think the Basques and Catalan's will beat them to the punch.

Oddly enough, for the benefit of the rest of the world, I think Scotland should vote No. But, then again, why should 5 million people be forced to accept something they don't want just because it's going to get hard for everyone else? So my take is Vote Yes and we may be living in a world that is too occupied trying to hold onto it's power base to be worrying about what brand of tasteless cardboard cereal would be best for our health.....

At least it might break us out of this stagnation and overbearing rule making which has been going on. If England exits the EU right behind Scotland, then Catalonia and the Basque territories are thrown out by the EU after independence, followed rapidly by Flanders, I can see the whole EU project running right off the rails.

It must be looking very much like a horror movie here in Brussels this week. Huge multi car pileup in the EU expressway to federalism on the horizon, everybody driving too fast with too little care and the small Scottish child running after his teddy bear is going to cause the most humongous pile up....

I must admit whilst it is amusing to contemplate, it will be very challenging if it happens. Especially for me, working in Belgium for a Bank. But I'm still a solid Yes.

[Workingman]

If England exits the EU right behind Scotland, then Catalonia and the Basque territories are thrown out by the EU after independence, followed rapidly by Flanders, I can see the whole EU project running right off the rails.

Precisely the reason why the EU will not accept an "independent" Scotland unless it agrees to EU rules and joins the Euro.

So, Scotland will either have to relinquish its new found independence and join the EU and Euro or go totally independent (not the present offer) and be as influential as Croatia.

[Suff]

So, Scotland will either have to relinquish its new found independence and join the EU and Euro or go totally independent (not the present offer) and be as influential as Croatia.

<sigh>

Why does this have to be so difficult. Even noddy Scots MEP's think the same.

Figures as of 2012. The economy has done a LOT of expanding since then.

Croatia: Nominal GDP in millions of $ 56,447
Scoland:

Without Oil Nominal GDP in millions of $ 247,160
With Oil, it will be circa GDP in millions of $500,000

Plus Scotland will hold the rights to around 75% of North Sea Fishing grounds. Putting the fishing fleets of half the EU out of business.

Now, remind me again, what influence does Croatia have? Because Scotland has one Hell of a LOT.

If you factor in Oil in the first instance, then the following EU countries will have a bigger GDP than Scotland

Germany 3,425,956
France 2,611,221
United Kingdom 2,471,600
Italy 2,013,392
Spain 1,322,126
Netherlands 770,067
Sweden 523,804

If we don't factor in Oil, then the list is a bit longer.

Poland 489,852
Belgium 483,402
Austria 394,458
Denmark 314,889
Greece 248,941
Finland 247,389

Croatia sits down here.

Portugal 212,139
Ireland 210,638
Czech Republic 196,446
Romania 169,396
Hungary 124,600
Slovakia 91,349
Croatia 56,447

Note we haven't reached the level of the country of our illustrious leader of the commission which sits immediately after Croatia on

Luxembourg 55,143

So, please, enough of the "Scotland is an Eastern European mini state with no resources, no economy and no influence. It just won't wash and the more that is pushed to the Scots as a reason for voting No, the more they are going to get seriously pissed.

Oh and lest we forget, that is only 21 of the 28 countries in the EU today. There are another 7 down the list yet.

[Workingman]

Scotland does not have a GDP, yet, it has a nominal GDP based on its trading position within the UK and EU. Its GDP will not be finalised until it had traded as an independent state.

What its GDP will eventually be will depend on its currency, and that has not been decided.

There are four options:
1. Keep the pound in a formal currency union
This has already been ruled out by all of the main parties and the UK Treasury.
2. Keep the pound unilaterally, without formal agreement
With no control over interest rates or Fiscal policy. They will be decided upon what is necessary for the rUK economy, not Scotland's.
3. Adopt the Euro
Scotland Finance Minister, John Swinney, has ruled this out as Scotland would have to enter the European Monetary Union and comply with a series of economic requirements - convergence criteria etc.
4. Introduce a new Scottish currency
This isn’t favoured by the Scottish government because of the costs involved - setting up a new central bank similar to the BoE and other financial institutions. A new currency would have to be fixed to the £ or left to float.

Scotland currently exports about 84% of its goods and services (oil and gas removed) to the rest of the UK and Europe - 19% to the EU and 65% to the rest of the UK. That comes to £14bn to Europe and £48bn to the UK. with the other £12bn dispersed far and wide. Remember, though, that those figures come from Scotland trading and being a member or both the UK and EU. What their value will be under independence is up for grabs.

When I mentioned Croatia it was in the context of its membership of the EU, something an "independent" Scotland wants. It took Croatia ten years of negotiations, compliance and a referendum of its people before it became the EU's 28th member state, and there were border issues with Slovenia on the way. I am not saying that it will take as long for Scotland, but it will not be out one day and the 29th member the next. However it is done there will be a period of limbo for Scotland.

[Suff]

Actually WM Scotland does have a reported GDP. It is reported every year as one of the 5 regions which comprises the UK GDP. Which is how we know what it is. It is even more interesting that the Barnett formula which hands out money does so on a basis of headcount, rather than GDP, with a nod to the contribution of NSO.

So Scotland could produce twice the amount it does today and it would not get one penny more unless it fought for it in Westminster. Which, in fact, is exactly what that "nod" to NSO is all about. Scotland wants to get out of that.

Again, I reiterate that Croatia is a very small country, recently war torn and rebuilding, which has many issues and little to give the EU except another country and some people. Hardly surprising it's taken them so long to enter.

Scotland, on the other hand, is a rich country with resources the EU wants and is already a member under the umbrella of the UK. I think it would be hard to get two examples much further apart in terms of comparison. Which is driving a lot of fury in Scotland as they do that time and time again.

As for currencies, the "ruling out" is only before the vote. Chances that rUK will take a 20% hit on it's GDP and drop below parity with the Euro, all to spite Scotland??? I don't bet but I might just take a flutter.

In the end it all comes down to what the Scots want. Do they want to take the pain of running their own country and balancing their own budget? Or do they want to hide in the UK and do what England says? That is the question.

Also I'd like to point out that the stories of doom and gloom are running a bit thin.

The UK was going to crash and it's economy was going to burn when the Tories got in and hit us with Austerity: Result? Booming ecnomy, the most active and with the best growth of the western world.

Scotland was going to suffer dire consequences when Salmond took over with a minority SNP government: Result? Things went amazingly well. So much so that they managed to get an outright majority in the next election.

Scotland was going to suffer badly when SNP made a majority government because they were going to spend, spend, spend and blow the budget plus the economy was going to tank: Result? Scotland is actually leading the UK in new business, budget is high but not critical and Scottish servcies are not being pared back.

Why would Scots want to listent to anything anyone would say before the vote? Everything which has stood out and challenged the status quo, so far, has been proved to be true. All the doom mongering has been proved to be false. Even disconnected Scots can see that.