by Suff » 20 Oct 2016, 13:39
Aggers, WM is both a republican and a believer in conspicuous democracy. He's also a realist, coming from both the services and IT, it would be highly surprising if he were not.
Think of it this way. What you want and what has been decided may be in opposition to each other. WM, as I am, is well aware of the Kübler-Ross model of grief management. He's gone straight to acceptance and his energy is aimed at ensuring the best transition with the best conditions. Part of that is accepting the reality rather than the starry eyed "story" which has been sold.
If you recall I've been saying, all along, that there is a Price attached to Brexit. I've always asserted that this price is both necessary and a better choice than living with the status quo.
This is not, however, what many of the wishy washy voters voted for. Many of these voters thought they could get out of one of the most restricted trading zones in the world practically unscathed. A regime which takes great enjoyment out of running our lives and using our influence in the world without giving us anything other than what they want, regardless of what we want.
These "political divorces" (let us make no mistake, this is more a political divorce than a trading divorce), are fraught with Kübler-Ross esque issues.
WM is one of the stablest on this. We may argue semantics of how it will happen or the reality of what our leaders may do, but I have never doubted his sincerity or genuine concern for the UK as a whole.
On the point I was trying to make.
Yes the lawyer said the MP's will get a vote on the "deal". They will not, however, get a vote on the triggering of A50.
Why not?
Because UK courts have no jurisdiction to rule on that law. That law is an EU law replicated onto the UK statute books, giving the EU and the PM the sole control over this process.
So anyone thinking that a UK court can overrule this process is in lala land. The ONE thing I do thank Brown for, in signing the Lisbon Treaty, was in giving the PM the ability to thumb his or her nose at Parliament, the courts or, pretty much, anyone other than the queen and trigger A50 alone.
The second point about this is the belief that if "we" can't agree a deal on separation, that we can just go back and "un trigger" A50. Let's be utterly and totally clear here. The Lisbon treaty sets out the mechanism. You trigger it and you LEAVE. How you leave is up to the leaving nation and the remaining 2(X) nations who are going to approve it unanimously.
The Lisbon treaty sets it out in clear and graphic detail. There is a 2 year (maximum), window for the nation to leave. During that time a unanimously agreed deal _can_ be struck. At any point, during that time, the leaving nation, with the unanimous agreement of the remaining 27 (today), states, may leave. If, however, after 2 years, no unanimous agreement is made, then the triggering country is summarily removed from the treaties and shoved out the door.
There is no backtracking option, it does not exist within the treaties. There is just an escalator and a door. Step on the escalator and it takes you straight to the door, where the door opens and the escalator pushes you out of it. The escalator doesn't go backwards and it can't be switched off.
The two years is to negotiate how close to the ground the door is when the nation emerges from the building of the EU. No agreement and it goes to the roof and you are pitched to the ground. Full agreement and it goes to the ground floor and you exit on the street.
To do anything else would require a treaty change. Something which will not be opened until 2020. We will be out the door before any treaty changes are agreed.
As I fully believe we're going to wind up on the roof, I suggest we learn to fly. Or at the very least, organise a very good parachute. Alternatives range from building a stairway down or an express chute with a trampoline on the bottom to allow us to bounce.
The press is still in Denial. The majority of those who wanted to stay are either in denial or anger at this time. I doubt they will reach acceptance until we actually exit and that is a very dangerous thing. Because when we wind up going over the top of the roof, the last thing we need is to be weighed down by people in denial of the drop or people who are angry that they are being pushed over the drop. Everyone needs to be working towards making that drop as easy as possible.
Why do I keep talking about a drop and not about exiting on the ground floor?
Because in my experience of the EU and the countries in the EU and the attitudes of those in the EU institutions and in the countries themselves, nothing has led me to believe that they either can be, or want to be, reasonable.
With that in mind, you might have a slight inkling of my contempt for these attempts to subvert a process, mandated by a democratic majority of the people who bothered themselves to vote, which will take us out of the EU.
May and the Tories cannot possibly make any other choice.
Let me also expound on a few other thoughts.
I see the press talking about how we should not trigger A50 until after the German elections. As if Germany IS the EU and only Germany can give or deny us what we need.
What I see is that the government has already accepted reality. A50 will be triggered after the US President has been chosen and Inaugurated. Why? Because when you have accepted that the EU is essentially hostile to your exit, then the bridges need to be built between what you are leaving and where you are going. Preferably from rooftop to rooftop but any other level will be fine so long as it's not a fall.
Germany? France? Elections? Who cares? The reality is that our future is now tied with the rest of the world and we'd better get on with making our relations with them. There can be no better negotiating stance with the EU than having a better offer elsewhwere!
After all, who tries to negotiate with their insurance provider without having obtained a lower quote elsewhere? Trade and access negotiations are no different. You negotiate from a position of strength. Not the position of weakness that, especially, the Lib Dems want and to a larger extent Labour.
That's my position in a nutshell. Don't listen to the press, don't listen to the bumbling attempts to change the course of history in the UK courts. Look at the actions being taken and work it out.
There are 10 types of people in the world:
Those who understand Binary and those who do not.