400ppm and Rising.

[Workingman]

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) reports that CO2 levels in the atmosphere will be above 400ppm for the year 2016.

This is the first time for 3 - 5 million years and way above the average level of 280ppm prior to 1800. Interestingly the WMO is not, by and large, a climate change champion nor a denier, it mostly puts out the numbers with possible explanations for them.

This time, however, it has gone a bit further. It explains that the El Niño factor was partly in play, probably to stall some deniers, but it also goes on to say that despite recent measures to cut HCFCs (they did not exist in 1800) the levels of methane and and nitrous oxide are both above pre-industrial levels - 2.5 and 1.5 respectively.

The study also points to the impact of these increased concentrations of warming gases on the world's climate.

Between 1990 and 2015 there was a 37% increase in radiative forcing or warming effect, caused by a build up of these substances, from industrial, agricultural and domestic activities.

and,

"It is therefore of the utmost importance that the Paris Agreement does indeed enter into force well ahead of schedule on 4 November and that we fast-track its implementation."

Fast-track, by two weeks! That will work.

It is us. Bugs and animals do not do industry and agriculture. We are the ones needing fixing. Got it?

[Suff]

Yup it were El Nino that done it, it were. All the way up from 2.3ppm to 2.9ppm last year and, potentially, 3.6ppm this year, but most likely above 3ppm.

It will "crash back" to somewhere around 2ppm to 2.5ppm growth, year on year, for the next two or three years then start growing again. By 2026, 3ppm or more will be normal.

It's like sitting in your car whilst the car is in a crusher. Your car is escape proof. It doesn't matter that the compactor is moving so slowly that a 2 year old could get out of the way. Because you can't get out of the car. Any more than most of us can get off the planet, or live under the sea.

Paris accord? I have totally lost any faith in any accord on climate change. For 150 years we have been altering the climate of the planet. Initially by the advanced world who had industrialised. But, in the last 50 years, virtually every human on the planet has been adding to the CO2 burden.

Not only can't we stop it in it's tracks, we don't know how to mitigate it without creating even more CO2. Well apart from re-foresting the denuded Amazon. But even that is not likely as the ground which was exposed has been raped of nutrients and won't support these great trees any more.

350.org is a long lost shout in the wilderness. There is no chance we're going back to 350. There is a fairly large and growing body of evidence that once we reach 450 the process may become self sustaining as the ocean fails to absorb CO2 at the rate it currently is.

What they don't mention in all of those stats is that the Ocean absorbs at least 50% of the CO2 we produce. If the Ocean stops absorbing, we could see 6ppm each year easily and hit 500ppm by 2040.

Let's hope the Ocean has much more absorption left. Although the signs, with the dead zones and upwelling of huge volumes of dead fish, seem to be pointing to something else.

Interesting times. Ultimately lethal.

[AliasAggers]

Don't you think that this fact should have been considered when it was decided to build another aircraft runway at Gatwick? If we had any sense we would all be taking steps to reduce the use of the Earth's natural resources - or don't we care a damn what horrors our descendants will inherit? Surely their future wellbeing is worthy of us giving up all the unnecessary gadding about that has become the practice in recent times?

[Suff]

I’m sure it was considered when they decided to build a new runway at Heathrow and not Gatwick. Because HS2 is expected to be the start of a country wide high speed network which will cut down intra UK air travel, Gatwick is more domestic traffic.

Heathrow, on the other hand, is one of the largest International air hubs in the world and is already at breaking point for plane turnaround.

If we want to remain one of the major players in the world, these are things we need to do. China, for the Olympics, built a complete new airport, large enough to vie with Heathrow.

If we want to compete in the world we have to compete. Britain is already well ahead of most of the EU in emissions reduction. In fact Brexit is going to force the EU to push more reductions on countries in the EU who did not want to reduce and wanted to ride on the UK coat tails. That’s going to hurt them but that’s tough.

The UK is already doing its bit. It is not anywhere near enough but it is more than most and as we’re one of the larger emitters, it has a much bigger impact than, say, Belgium. If Germany were reducing emissions at the same level as the UK, the net reduction would be much bigger. But they are not.

We are already doing our bit and more. If we need a new runway at Heathrow to hold our economy and grow it, then that’s what we need. We can save emissions elsewhere with other initiatives. Or other countries who have been growing their air travel, putting in more coal power (Germany stand up), or massively increasing vehicle growth and pollution (Former Eastern EU states stand up), will need to step up to the plate and endorse clean energy a bit better.