The head of the WTO weighs in

[Suff]

And says that the UK economy will not go down the toilet even in Hard Brexit and that the UK will not suffer significant trade disruption even in the case of hard Brexit.

Regardless of what the tub thumpers and panicking EU ministers are bleating about.

I'm guessing the head of the WTO really should know what he's talking about. But, perhaps, not. I mean, his members ALL trade with the EU and the EU trades with ALL his members and the UK IS a member of the WTO, even now.

An important point he stated is that the EU exports more to the UK than any other single market in the world. The EU exports fully 16% of it's goods and services to the UK. 1% more than the US and fully twice as much as it exports to China.

Blocking the UK and creating insane rules to force the UK out of the EU markets would be the same as refusing to trade with the US, only worse. For all the fact that countries around the world hate the US, they all want to trade with her.

Being fairly suspicious of figures spouted by "politicians" I did a little digging and, yes, the UK is really the single largest export market that the EU has.

If the EU cuts us off from free movement of goods, it will be the single largest act of "self harm" any advanced economy has ever done in the entire history of the modern world. Forget Bexit as an act of self harm, the UK already does 52% (ish), export trade outside the EU and the vast majority of what it gets from within the EU could be bought more cheaply outside the EU once we leave. This does not harm the UK but it massively impacts the EU.

Take, for instance, solar panels. Something we are hugely committed to and are using to try and balance our clean energy. The EU slapped 50% taxes on China as an "anti dumping" measure.

Really?

Germany produces the most expensive solar panels in the world. China was undercutting them. The EU slapped the tax on to protect German solar panels and virtually doubled the price of solar technology (essentially Chinese imports stopped and German cells at twice the price took over), for the entire EU. When the UK leaves, we'll be able to buy these Chinese cells without tarrifs if we should choose. After all we don't need to protect a solar cell manufacturing business.

This is replicated in goods over and over again. Leaving the EU our import costs will fall. OK 48% of our trade will be impacted with the EU, but the EU doesn't take it from us because they like us, they take it from us because they either can't get it or can't get it cheaper anywhere else.

The truth will out and there's a lot of lies hitting file13 at the moment.

[Workingman]

Oh, I give up.

I have been saying forever that we could go with WTO rules and the hard Brexit that the Brexiteers actually voted for, and I was talking ballcocks!

Now, all of one sudden, WTO rules are the way to go.

I do not care any more. We can have hard Brexit, soft Brexit, mixed Brexit, Brexit lite, EU lite......

Both of my children look to be set on leaving the UK, and I do not blame them. Unfortunately they will leave behind some 65 million souls who will have to deal with this mess.

[Suff]

Yes I know you've been saying that WM. I've been in agreement with that.

But you also highlight the fermongerers who state that it will cause untold damage to the UK economy whilst the EU will just cruise on regardless.

In fact that part is, seriously, not true. The EU economy stands to lose more than the UK economy by hard Brexit. Yet I do believe that they will do it. Because they are far more scared of what an amicable and sensible trading arrangement will do to the cohesion of the rest of the EU.

It's also why I say that being open, right now, about our aspirations for Brexit terms is a waste of time. Because those who fear will do their damndest to derail anything we say now, leaving us with only the worst possible terms in the long run.

Personally I'd go in as the most unreasonable SOB on the planet and get them to negotiate me down to something sensible. If I lost at least I'd know that they were losing more than me. Which would mean they would come round in the end. The only possible outcome of trying to please them is we get screwed.