Vocal Voices

The actions and words of some newspapers, MPs and ordinary people have prompted the Bar Council to get them condemned by the Lord Chancellor, Liz Truss. It is not surprising when they show the level to which some some parts of our society have sunk.

There have been death threats, rape threats and racist attacks on some of those involved. Some idiots even threatened one Gina Miller, who just happens to be a sports commentator on US TV. These mindless morons are so thick that they do not realise that out of 7.2 billion of us two people might share the same name.

It is unfortunate, but there is a real danger some of these plonkers might actually try to carry out some of their threats. The authorities obviously think so.

Sadly it's what happens when a campaign runs on dogma, negativity and football style belligerence.

Mind you it's only similar to the same outpouring of rage and disbelief which came out of the Remain camp after the vote. Driven by the same causes.

Given that we are where we are, then the title of this article is where we need to be. A lot more calm reflection and a lot less idiocy.

I know that there were calls for A50 to be triggered immediately after the referendum. But. I'm of the opinion that March 2017 is early enough, maybe too early for all the self serving blockers to finish all their shenanigans. Once they have got that out of their system they may actually accept the result.

This, from Reuters is exactly what I was pointing at.

The £ could drop to $1.15 after A50 is triggered.

It is a poll, but with no details of whom or how many, only that they were 'analysts'. The headline, however, presents it as if it is fact, and there is also the hint that those analysts are speaking for the majority. It is scaremongering, but it could have an effect.

There is a dynamic here which they don't want to talk about. When the £ dropped before the markets were listening to the BOE first and politicians with half an ear.

Today the markets are listening to the BOE first and the politicians with half an ear so the £ is rising. Because the BOE are talking about excessive action and stronger than expected economy and inflation "overshoot".

Why are we going to see "inflation overshoot"? Because the BOE drank their own cool aid, jumped in with a knee jerk reaction to try and convince people they were in control and both dropped rates and started printing money.

Predictably the markets panicked. Especially the building funds. What they are not talking about with the building funds is that these are relatively high risk investments with corresponding high returns in interest. Well above bank levels and also well above inflation. However if the building trade collapses they lose their shirt. This I know because my Uncle has been investing in them with his full disposable wealth.

This was the driving force behind the panic when the BOE lost their heads.

However as time has gone on, after the funds were frozen, to protect the investments, it has become clear that the building trade, far from being collapsed by the Brexit vote, are unable to supply enough houses in a short market and house prices are continuing to climb.

Currently the value of the £ is about right for the level of interest rates and the money printing going on. However it is seriously undervalued based on the strength of the economy.

Regardless of the triggering of A50 and the interference of the courts, the £ has hit a floor due to the BOE sentiment change. As the BOE rhetoric changes from "economic rescue" to "managing economic overheating and inflation", the £ will start a gentle but implacable rise.

$1.15??? Not unless someone completely loses their head. The moves in the market over the last two months were predicated on the warnings from the BOE about 0.1% rates and extensive QE for an extended period. That policy is dead. So is $1.15.

Well that's my opinion. Two weeks ago a friend of mine called me when the € was at 1.09. He was asking my opinion about what to do with his € investments in terms of buying £. I told him that the £ had bottomed out and anyone talking parity was in fantasy land and that was my opinion. It was up to him what he did but if it was me I'd buy now and sell in 2-3 months when the £ had bounced.

Today it's €1.12 and bouncing around towards €1.13.

I can't see it dropping drastically any time soon. The EU growth is still very low, easily 1/5th of annual UK inflation and it is not going anywhere better any time soon. The Italian banking system is still in crisis, France is bumping along the 0% growth line swinging between deflation and near 0% inflation ever few months and nothing there is changing. Germany is the Only large EU economy showing any real growth and that is mainly down to world export sales, not internal EU growth in sales.

Granted when the Fed raise rates again the £ will drop a bit. But not for long and not $1.15.

I really hate this fearmongering.

$1.15??? Not unless someone completely loses their head.

Wait and see what happens if Clinton gets in. If Trump wins, however, we'll be back to $1.25 within hours ......