Vocal Voices

During the night I noticed that the traders had their systems set up automatically. Clinton was going to win, the UK was going to suffer, the £ was going to lose value and that was it, all done and dusted.

As the first results came in the £ dropped against the € and the $. This continued all the way to around 4am where CNN were still saying that it was a close run race where Democrat votes were locked up in the city and Trump might not be doing as well as the results were showing. Virginia was a point in case where Trump led right from the beginning only to be pipped at the post when the metropolitan vote came in.

It was quite instructive watching it. It is only when you look at the "on the night" analysis that you realise that the US is dominated much the same way as the UK is dominated by London. Huge metropolitan areas, in almost every state, were dominating the rest of the state. You could see almost the entire state Red and two small blue blocks could take the entire state.

This time it was becoming apparent, by 5am our time, that the metropolitan vote was not coming out for Clinton the way it did for Obama and that Clinton was possibly going to lose. At 05:15 our time they were talking about it coming down to one or two electoral college votes which were issued by the way the Senate fell rather than how the Presidential vote was in the state. Four of these states college votes were divided by party and two of them were in Democrat dominated states for the presidential vote. Which would give Trump the victory in a tight run race.

In the end Trump walked it. But, importantly, had you been listening, Trump walked it where he had been pushing most of his effort. Namely in the rust belt. Which says that the Trump team knew more about what they were doing than the Clinton team and the political analysts. One of the states Trump won, Clinton had not even made a visit to the largest Metropolitan area which was seen as a solid Democrat win. Ooops.

So we come back to the markets. I've noticed for quite a while that they are all aligned to shaft the UK for deciding to leave the EU. As if they think they can punish us into crawling back to the EU on our hands an knees. This was what I saw during the election. They were all ready to hammer the £ some more because the political world was going to stay running down the PC river and the UK was swimming against it.

When Trump started to pull away, the humans had to intervene in the systems. US markets fell and the £ stabilised and returned to where it had been before the election began.

The only way that could happen is because those who run the markets had decided that Clinton was going to win and the UK was going to pay the price. Something I've been seeing for months now since the Brexit vote.

Now, perhaps, we can get back to where we were. The UK economy is strong, the UK is leaving the EU and the economy will remain strong.

The Unknown, for the markets, now is the US. Trump says he'll pull US forces back out of areas of conflict, stop bad trade deals, focus on the US economy and US jobs and ditch the US attempts at DSS and NHS. That is such a HUGE change to HUGE investments in the market that they have far more to be worried about than how much money they can make out of the UK being in the EU.

Expect the £ to continue to rise.

Here's a bit of fun.

The £ hit $1.25 at peak today. Expected we say, the $ is dropping against all major currencies.

So why did it also hit €1.14???

We're back down to $1.24 for the USD but the Euro is still sitting in the mid 1.13 range. Are we finally breaking out of the € dominated trading the £ has been in for the last 16 years??

Or are the traders so shocked they don't have time to "apply the plan" and the £ is just drifting till they get it together again? Whatever the answer, it bodes rather better for the UK.

I hope my Friend, who phoned me for buying advice when the £ was at €1.09 just a week or so ago, bought. He'd be making a nice tidy profit if he did.

I must reply, Suff.
Not because I can add anything to what you have written, but because I must
tell you how interesting I found your comments on this subject. I don't know
how you do it, but it does make interesting reading, and it certainly helps me
to understand better what is going on.

I have a feeling that what has happened in this USA election will, hopefully,
make politicians here modify their understanding of what can happen if they
carry out their parliamentary functions without taking into account what the
consequences might be if they fail to do what is best for the commoners who
elected them.

Thanks Aggers.

Certainly the result in the US has shocked a lot of people. Over the last decade, in the UK as well as the US, politics had reached a stage where simply impugning that a candidate "might" have been in the slightest racist or in the slightest way inappropriate to a woman (male candidate), was enough to virtually derail the campaign and cause huge amounts of soul searching and apologies.

It's why I call the 21st century the "pink frilly skirt" century.

Trump destroyed that in a catastrophic fashion. They threw everything at him, racism, ageism, sexism, threatened court cases, the whole lot. It simply bounced off. Why? Because that huge undercurrent of normal people found someone they could vote for who was talking their language.

The language of politics has become ever more adrift from the country and the life that the vast majority of normal people live. So people have become disengaged from politics and enough have stopped voting that people who could not have considered winning, even 20 years ago, are prime candidates.

let's face facts. The world is not all made up of nice people who do nice things to each other. It's made up of all types and, in general, most people have their "intolerance" levels and they are set at different heights. What Trump did was remind people that if you don't like what is going on and there is an alternative on offer, Vote for it and what is going on will change.

Also, something which is never reported and has not been alluded to, but is vitally important. Trump funded his own campaign. Totally. What has happened in previous years is that any negative press has caused funding to dry up, leaving the candidate high and dry or running to appease the press and the people. Trump didn't care and just kept on saying what he wanted and paying for his own campaign. I must admit the consternation in the press, when they realised that they had no way of "controlling" trump and what he said must have been HUGE.

I don't think it has quite sunk in yet but, for the first time in a very, very, long time, the US has a president who owes nobody anything at all. Normally by the time any president reaches the White House, the lobby groups and the businesses who fund the campaigns own his gonads lock stock and barrel.

I don't think that has quite sunk in yet. When it does, there will be lots of yowling and howling. But not much cam be done about it. Democracy has had it's say and, for the net 4 years at least, Trump is in the driving seat. Yes the lobbyists and pressure groups own the house and the senate, but they don't own the presidency or the executive orders.

Let's see how it goes.