Cup half empty
Posted: 06 Dec 2016, 09:46I'm pretty much a cup half empty person most of the time. This suits as I live my life prepared for things to go wrong and when they go right I'm very pleasantly surprised.
However over the whole Brexit and value of the £ I've been cup full and overflowing. It's the markets and the spivs and those who play games with the lives and fortunes of others who are cup half full. In fact they're cup "almost empty".
I've said, fairly consitstnely, that the UK economy is strong and the EU is a weak patchwork of broken and unreliable economies underpinned by lacklustre German performance and a huge amout of invested money which reists change because they'll lose too much.
I made a prediction about the £-€ that it would hit €1.20 by Christmas. The market analysts were still talking about it's level at around €1.10 and $1.15.
Yesterday the £ hit €1.19 and $1.27 respectively. It's been dropping against the € but still climbing against the $. This is good because when the Fed next speaks the £ will remain strong but the € is likely to take a pounding because Draghi has no option but to print money and buy Italian bonds. Well he could let 6 major banks in Italy be nationalised, but that's not quite what he's supposed to be there for.
Once we get this stupid 3 ring circus over about triggering A50, we can get back to some solid £ appreciation. At least the Aussie traders (not captured in the Asian € bonds trap), are calling it right. The £ is still significantly undervalued.
In this instance I reserve the right to not be cup half full....
However over the whole Brexit and value of the £ I've been cup full and overflowing. It's the markets and the spivs and those who play games with the lives and fortunes of others who are cup half full. In fact they're cup "almost empty".
I've said, fairly consitstnely, that the UK economy is strong and the EU is a weak patchwork of broken and unreliable economies underpinned by lacklustre German performance and a huge amout of invested money which reists change because they'll lose too much.
I made a prediction about the £-€ that it would hit €1.20 by Christmas. The market analysts were still talking about it's level at around €1.10 and $1.15.
Yesterday the £ hit €1.19 and $1.27 respectively. It's been dropping against the € but still climbing against the $. This is good because when the Fed next speaks the £ will remain strong but the € is likely to take a pounding because Draghi has no option but to print money and buy Italian bonds. Well he could let 6 major banks in Italy be nationalised, but that's not quite what he's supposed to be there for.
Once we get this stupid 3 ring circus over about triggering A50, we can get back to some solid £ appreciation. At least the Aussie traders (not captured in the Asian € bonds trap), are calling it right. The £ is still significantly undervalued.
In this instance I reserve the right to not be cup half full....