You can plese some of the people
Posted: 06 Jan 2017, 11:16
all of the time and all of the people some of the time.
To paraphrase.
However, right now, pleasing the Remoaners is going to cost us very dear indeed in negotiating with the EU.
After the abject capitulation of Athens on the Greek bail out, I read a very interesting article. It said something close to what I believed when Syreza took over.
Here is the gist of it.
What the Article said was that the best Greek negotiating stance with the EU was to say "We're leaving the €, redenominating all Greek debt into Drachma and we're going to devalue 20% per year for the next 10 years. Unless you have another suggestion. If that means we have to leave the EU, then so be it, but that is what we are doing".
The author of the article was absolutely right. Because the panic it would have caused in Brussels would have been monumental. They would have done almost anything to avoid even one of the PIIGS from escaping from the mountain of debt they had built up buying Northern European goods and "living the good life".
So why didn't they do it? Because they had campaigned on a platform of keeping the €. Which was a platform of weakness. In the end it led to the total capitulation of Greece for no other reason than that they had wedded themselves to the €.
So take Britain. The Remoaners are trying to force us to accept terms, any terms, so long as they get free and unrestricted access to the EU market. There is a HUGE trade imbalance between the EU and the UK, worse that trade imbalance is invested, mainly, in the two richest and most powerful countries in the EU.
So what should our stance be?
I submit this.
We leave, no deal is on the table and we will slap 50% taxes on all EU imports. If the EU takes it to the WTO and tries to cause action we'll threaten to VETO every single legislation agreement the WTO wants to bring until the WTO agrees to allow the UK to block EU aggressive marketing. What? Veto? WTO? Why did nobody ever mention that? Yep if the WTO tries to pass any new legislation the UK can veto it to get what we want. Just as India did.
Sometimes being the "bad boy" in the world is not such a bad thing and would allow us to bring the EU to the negotiating table at the end of a French and German gun.
OH and just to level set. The UK economy is quite a bit larger than the Indian economy and in much less available services and goods. You can't just switch provider of many of the goods and services the UK provides.
If we don't the UK trading relationship with the EU is going to be very much the same as the Greek relationship with debt. Rapine and usury by the EU and capitulation by the UK.
In this WM is exactly right. Trigger A50 and next day say "no deal, were leaving. You want a deal, you come up with one". Hard Brexit with an opening for the EU to come up with offers of a solution. Not the UK coming cap in hand to the EU asking for "favours".
Then we get to be the one saying "no that's not good enough go back and think again".
When Canada publicly stated that they believed the EU was incapable of negotiating a trade deal, the EU, France and Germany came in and "sat" on the Belgian and Wolloonian PM's until they capitulated. Notably Belgium is a net recipient of EU funds, not a net contributor.
To paraphrase.
However, right now, pleasing the Remoaners is going to cost us very dear indeed in negotiating with the EU.
After the abject capitulation of Athens on the Greek bail out, I read a very interesting article. It said something close to what I believed when Syreza took over.
Here is the gist of it.
What the Article said was that the best Greek negotiating stance with the EU was to say "We're leaving the €, redenominating all Greek debt into Drachma and we're going to devalue 20% per year for the next 10 years. Unless you have another suggestion. If that means we have to leave the EU, then so be it, but that is what we are doing".
The author of the article was absolutely right. Because the panic it would have caused in Brussels would have been monumental. They would have done almost anything to avoid even one of the PIIGS from escaping from the mountain of debt they had built up buying Northern European goods and "living the good life".
So why didn't they do it? Because they had campaigned on a platform of keeping the €. Which was a platform of weakness. In the end it led to the total capitulation of Greece for no other reason than that they had wedded themselves to the €.
So take Britain. The Remoaners are trying to force us to accept terms, any terms, so long as they get free and unrestricted access to the EU market. There is a HUGE trade imbalance between the EU and the UK, worse that trade imbalance is invested, mainly, in the two richest and most powerful countries in the EU.
So what should our stance be?
I submit this.
We leave, no deal is on the table and we will slap 50% taxes on all EU imports. If the EU takes it to the WTO and tries to cause action we'll threaten to VETO every single legislation agreement the WTO wants to bring until the WTO agrees to allow the UK to block EU aggressive marketing. What? Veto? WTO? Why did nobody ever mention that? Yep if the WTO tries to pass any new legislation the UK can veto it to get what we want. Just as India did.
Sometimes being the "bad boy" in the world is not such a bad thing and would allow us to bring the EU to the negotiating table at the end of a French and German gun.
OH and just to level set. The UK economy is quite a bit larger than the Indian economy and in much less available services and goods. You can't just switch provider of many of the goods and services the UK provides.
If we don't the UK trading relationship with the EU is going to be very much the same as the Greek relationship with debt. Rapine and usury by the EU and capitulation by the UK.
In this WM is exactly right. Trigger A50 and next day say "no deal, were leaving. You want a deal, you come up with one". Hard Brexit with an opening for the EU to come up with offers of a solution. Not the UK coming cap in hand to the EU asking for "favours".
Then we get to be the one saying "no that's not good enough go back and think again".
When Canada publicly stated that they believed the EU was incapable of negotiating a trade deal, the EU, France and Germany came in and "sat" on the Belgian and Wolloonian PM's until they capitulated. Notably Belgium is a net recipient of EU funds, not a net contributor.