Mr Forward Advice

[Suff]

Has decided that the last thing in the world he wants to do is give any "forward advice"

The key policy of the Carney BOE tenure was "Forward Advice" where the Bank signalled what it was looking at, the way that it would react to it and it's probable actions. This was supposed to give the markets comfort and security so they did not carry out knee jerk reactions which might damage the economy.

So what was Carney's "Forward Advice" today?

Erm, well, "We might raise rates or we might cut them. It depends".

Smashing. What was their prediction for the near term?

Growth would remain strong. Inflation would exceed the BOE limits at which Carney has to write to the Chancellor and explain why he has not done anything about inflation. The key driver for inflation is currently the low value of the £.

If you read that the way I do, the only answer to that is "Pinocchio your nose is growing". Simply put if growth remains strong and inflation continues to grow to levels which might become damaging, purely on the back of a weak £, the absolute LAST thing he's going to do is raise rates.

However if wages continue to rise ahead of inflation in the private sector, then he would be forced to raise rates. Which would strengthen the £ and reduce the largest inflationary pressure (the low value of the £)

I expect the markets and the analysts to have worked that out by tomorrow morning.

The thing is that when the markets stop believing what the BOE says, then "Forward Advice" is dead and buried.

Good going Mr Carney.