Sarin, Sarin-like or Chlorine?

[Workingman]

I am a bit confused regarding the chemical attack in Syria on Tuesday. It was immediately reported as being Sarin following an attack by Syrian jets on Khan Sheikhoun. The substance was definitely Sarin, it was a war crime, etc., get the UN Security Council onto it.

Two days later and the cries of condemnation have turned to murmurs. Some agencies treating those killed or affected, Medcins Sans Frontiers (MSF) and the Turkish medical teams, are now describing the substances as 'chemicals', 'sarin-like' or 'chlorine', but not definitely Sarin.

I was taught that Sarin was one of the deadliest nerve agents, that it was persistent and that it lingered. So when I heard that it had been used in a built up area I expected the death toll to be much higher, as well as the number of those with secondary complications. I was also surprised to see medical and media teams entering the area in the immediate aftermath with little more than paper face masks as 'protection' against such a lethal weapon.

I am not for one second saying that chemicals were not used, but I am suspicious that we are not getting the true picture.

[medsec222]

Maybe there is something more at play here.

[Suff]

Given that the government handed over its chemical weapons to inspectors, plus the fact that the rebels did not, the most likely scenario is that the government hit a store of some kind of chemical, whether weapon or not.

Given that all chemical weapons grew out of pesticides, it's quite possible that whatever was hit has the symptoms of Sarin without being the nerve agent itself. When talking to a warrant officer, after one of our NBC tests, he was inclined to talk to those who were interested. What he told us was that when doing the training with staff sergeants and above he would spray the room with fly spray before they came in. When testing there was a clear signal of nerve agent.

I'm sure this will be politically leveraged one way or another. But Sarin, delivered to a civilian population, should cause hundreds, to thousands, of deaths with additional levels of serious injuries.

I was always skeptical of the first "chemical weapons" strike and whether the government had done it. After all with the whole world watching, what did it have to gain?

[TheOstrich]

Sorry Suff, I don't buy that it was a "lucky strike" on a chemical cache. Eyewitness reports of the bombing run indicate 3 conventional and 1 non-conventional munition being released from the warplane.

It was a war crime IMHO, to go along with all the other war crimes in that conflict.

And as for the face-masks, I suspect the White Helmets of equivalent don't exactly have ready access to haz-chem protective suits ......

[Suff]

Sorry I don't believe that. The difference between a chemical munition and normal ordnance, in this scenario, would probably not be visible to the naked eye. Binary weapons, which are the weapon of choice for chemicals, have to mix and then burst. The mixing usually happens as the weapon falls to the ground and on impact a small charge then bursts the weapon and disseminates the gas.

Due to the common nature of ordnance carried by aircraft, they tend to be the same shape but slightly differing sizes.

I can just see it. Plane comes over 500mph, drops bombs, bombs drop for about 20 to 30 seconds before hitting the ground but are visible to the watcher for only 10 to 15 seconds and only discernible for actual size and configuration for a few seconds.

Sarin is not a high altitude deployment weapon, it is a ground delivery weapon, unlike VX which drops as a liquid, Sarin is a gas and needs reasonable concentrations when deployed. You do not get those concentrations with an air burst.

Skeptical of "Oh yeah I saw them dropping _unconvnentional_ weapons"? Yep, absolutely. Everyone knows that the only real way to get the superpowers involved decisively, these days, is to use a weapon of mass destruction. Losing, being beaten, on the back foot. What do you have to lose?

[TheOstrich]

I can just see it. Plane comes over 500mph, drops bombs, bombs drop for about 20 to 30 seconds before hitting the ground but are visible to the watcher for only 10 to 15 seconds and only discernible for actual size and configuration for a few seconds.

Sorry, just to clarify, eyewitness reports are that the plane was seen releasing 4 bombs, of which 3 exploded conventionally, and the final one released the chemical weapon.

"Witnesses in Khan Sheikhoun said that a Syrian airforce Sukhoi-22 dropped four bombs, three of which exploded conventionally, and a fourth that made little impact but released a large cloud of white smoke. Mohammed Youssef heard no screaming when the gas fell, because no-one could speak, shout or escape. "For the first 20 seconds after the airstrike, I did not feel that anything was wrong. After that I remember looking back at my family and seeing them drop to the ground one by one" " - The Times 06/04/17

[Suff]

OK hadn't seen that, I'd only seen reports which had less detail.

I'll keep my mind open on that one. I'm so inured to claims of WMD, especially when there might be some gain, that I'd need to know more. What has been said is not inconsistent with a bomb dropping into a buried cache of chemical weapons. It's also not inconsistent with a chemical warhead.

If I'm a skeptic blame Blair..

[Workingman]

And as for the face-masks, I suspect the White Helmets of equivalent don't exactly have ready access to haz-chem protective suits ......

Which is the best reason of all for NOT rushing in to an area suspected of being the scene of a gas attack. The correct responses would be to either get suited up before going in or to wait till the concentrations had dropped to safe(r) levels.

I am certainly with Suff when it comes to the number of deaths and casualties from weapons-grade Sarin used on an unprepared and unprotected civilian population.

Things do not quite fit, and some things (the 'chemical' factory) seem to have been dropped.

The one thing we are unlikely to get is a map showing a few things:

* The position of the rebels' chemical factory that was hit in the attack
* The positions where other munitions landed
* The direction of the wind and its flow pattern
* The areas of concentration of the deaths and of those with secondary complications with regards the factory and munitions
* Safe areas where the injured were given first-aid treatment

Again, I am not saying that the Syrians did not do it, but I would like more information, just to be sure.

I really do not want to learn that the rebels, IS or Al-Q, have laboratories capable of producing effective biological or chemical (nerve) agents.

[Suff]

I really do not want to learn that the rebels, IS or Al-Q, have laboratories capable of producing effective biological or chemical (nerve) agents.

True but it's not likely that they cannot do it. CW weapons are only just an outgrowth of pesticides. Which every country produces.

Personally I absolutely refuse to simply jump on the WMD bandwagon when something like this happens in a multi party conflict. Especially when we know that at least two of them are running a "no holds barred" war. Because if we are being played, then it is going to be our troops in the firing line.

[cromwell]

Very strange. Assad is winning the war, why would he use chemical weapons now? I've always thought the West is doing something very dark and dirty in the Middle East and that we aren't being told what it is.

Who is next for regime change, Iran?

We aren't getting news of the Syria conflict, we are getting straight propaganda imo.