The FT has a breakdown.
The commission initially looked at three main types of liability, which primarily come due between 2019 and 2025. The biggest were:
● EU budget items (such as road or rail projects) that had yet to be paid (a category, formally known as reste à liquider, which amounts to about €241bn).
● Other legal commitments to projects that would be initiated after Brexit takes place in 2019, such as investment projects in less developed regions, in rural areas and for fisheries (a total of up to €172bn).
● Long-term obligations and liabilities such as pension promises and contingent loan guarantees.
Mr Barnier then planned to offset this by reimbursing the UK with a share of EU assets (buildings such as the Berlaymont, the European Commission headquarters), its normal budget rebate and EU spending that would have taken place in the UK.
So very kind of him.
This position was toughened up by member states in the past few weeks. Most importantly, a group led by France and Poland demanded that Britain pay for not just longer term legal commitments that Mr Barnier identified, but normal annual budget spending in 2019 and 2020.
Although Britain signed up to the EU’s seven-year budget plan that ends in 2020, Brussels did not originally demand that London provide funding for annual budget outlays after Brexit. The new position maximises possible liabilities covered in the Brexit settlement, and effectively asks the UK to see out the full 2014-2020 long-term budget.
Juncker is right, the EU is certainly not a Golf Club. No club on the planet would have the Balls to demand that members paid dues for years after they left.
British farmers would still receive EU payments, but the net bill for Britain would be €10bn-€15bn, according to estimates of the Bruegel think-tank. Put crudely, for two years after leaving, Brexit Britain would be paying for the waiters at EU summit dinners, and probably subsidising the vegetables to boot.
Quite.
The final tweak is in the way that contingent liabilities are handled. The commission originally wanted to ask Britain to cover its share of losses on loans or guarantees at the point they arise. The new approach would ask Britain to make a lump-sum payment upfront to cover the liabilities, which would be reimbursed over coming years. This method — requesting provisions for a rainy-day fund — increases the upfront Brexit settlement by €9bn to €12bn.
A "rainy day" fund. And we're supposed to just say "oh yeah, we'll do that".
Mr Barnier insists there will be no final number for the Brexit bill until the end of the Brexit process. But the EU is insisting that Britain agree part of the methodology for it, including a definition of liabilities, before trade talks can begin.
So, we come down to brass tacks. We sign up for an undisclosed and unlimited liability and then, when we've done all the horse trading, they tell us how much it's going to be!
How very EU!
The commission is willing to stagger the payments as long as it leaves Brussels with no gap in the EU budget, which would also avoid a huge gross payment. But this is a detail for the final stages of talks; at present the UK does not even agree with the notion of an exit bill. There is a €100bn divide to bridge, and not long to do it.
Not long? Honestly unless Corbyn wins the election you might as well say "never".
Let me ask one simple question. Would you sign up for this in your own personal life???
