May in Florence.

[Workingman]

No it is not the title of a romantic novel, it is our PM in that historic Italian city giving a speech to nobody in particular. In doing so she has managed to pull off the stonishing feat of p1ssing of Brexiteers and Remainers, alike.

Oh, and did she just put off Brexit till after the next GE so she will not be blamed?

[cromwell]

She is kicking the can down the road, putting off the evil day. The ruling classes in this country want us to stay in the EU and this is part of the plan. I have every confidence that the two year transition period will be extended. So we will remain in the EU in everything but name.

[Suff]

I travelled at 02:30 this morning then worked from the airport at Paris all day so I missed this.

Even the BBC is saying that it changes very little. She is still not offering unilateral rights to stay for EU citizens and she is still saying No Deal is better than a bad deal.

What has changed? She has offered not to shaft the EU budget before it is renegotiated.

This is not what the EU wants so it is more likely to change nothing than to herald a capitulation on EU terms.

What it does do is make the EU out to be the intransigent bad guys...

Which makes it easier to heal the breaches in her party.

[Suff]

And so, as predicted, the EU carries on with it's "submit or face the consequences" stance and the UK calls the EU intransigent and unwilling to negotiate.

How predictable. We will be hearing more about "no deal is better than a bad deal" over the next few weeks.

[cromwell]

I would rather we walked away than just cave in, pay an enormous amount of money and end up being in the EU in all but name. That would seem to be the worse of all worlds.

[TheOstrich]

Couldn't agree more, Crommers. I'm hoping that Barnier and Tusk are all bluster, but if not, then yes, let's walk. And I certainly wouldn't have taken the security angle off the table at this stage - it was one of our major bargaining chips.

[Suff]

In any negotiation, when one party moves from it's baseline and offers a compromise, it is then up to the other party to move their baseline.

What will become absolutely apparent, in the next few months, is that this is not a negotiation. The EU has made it's position and it is unwilling to move from it.

As the months move on, expect to hear a lot more about "No Deal is better than a Bad Deal" as the EU continue to mandate and refuse to negotiate.

[Workingman]

In any negotiation, when one party moves from it's baseline and offers a compromise, it is then up to the other party to move their baseline.

Where is that rule: in sect 1.a, 2.h, 3.b.iii? In fact, where is the rule book saying that all sides have to adhere to any set the rules?

The above might be a truism when both sides are close, but when they are not it goes out the window.

If one side has all the aces, face cards and both jokers then it sets the red lines, the timeline and the agenda. It might offer a few crumbs of comfort so that the other side does not lose all face, but it does not have to.

With Brexit we have two deuces, a five an eight and a nine, a weak hand and the EU knows it.

The UK looks to have two choices - a fudge or WTO - and neither of those sit well with the majority.

[Suff]

People often forget that the UK is not Greece. They forgot that when people panicked as London2012 headed into £16bn. Look what happened to Greece they said. Not realising that a cost that broke Greek finances is mere small change to the UK.

The EU likes to forget that the UK is a strong nation on the world stage with a powerful economy, a very powerful military and the second most valuable intelligence organisation in the world.

The EU also likes to forget that the UK buys more goods form the EU than it sells to the EU and that the UK sells it's goods mainly to the rest of the world.

This is, in no way, a one way street. This is very much a two way street and the EU needs to get it's act together and realise it pretty damned soon. Because, soon enough, the UK is going to be calling foul and, essentially, going to tell the EU they can go whistle for security, intelligence or money.

Oh and just for fun, those 3.6m citizens in the UK? They'll have to re-register or leave.

Whilst the countries of the EU believe that standing firm behind the EU will make the UK bow down, this will continue. The second they believe that the UK is NOT going to bow to those kinds of tactics, that alliance is going to fracture all over the place.

When the utter stark reality of "no deal is better than a bad deal" comes home to roost, you can absolutely bet that the pressure groups within the major economies will be wailing big time.

They are all standing there on the big bluff, hoping like hell that the UK won't see that they are scared to death of having to fund the EU budget without the UK for the next 7 years. We have offered 2. There is no legal obligation to do so, as the UK presentation confirmed to the EU when our negotiation team absolutely shredded their "wish list", under a withering barrage of legal precedent; which proved it to be nothing more than a smash and grab attempt at UK money after we had left.

May wasn't joking when she said that the UK had no obligation to pay until 2021, but that we would do so in fairness and in order to reduce any undue impact on the other 27 states.

She also positioned the UK in a totally different light. That of a caring and compassionate country who is leaving the EU because we could not reconcile our differences by negotiation.

This is happening on the world stage and the rest of the world understands exactly what is going on here. I can see the EU thinking on the matter. "Well it worked with the PIIGS didn't it, why not try it on the UK?". Bit stupid really, because the UK could have bailed out Ireland, Greece and Portugal on it's own without the rest of the EU, even in the state we were in at the time.

I'm pretty sure that this plan was designed when Cameron was expected to be the PM, backed by Osborne as the chancellor and with an overall majority to make whatever he negotiated stick.

Surprise...... Now they are negotiating with a PM who does not wish to go down the path Cameron did, with senior ministers such as BoJo and Davis and Fox.

This is the EU. Keep doing the same thing and wear them down with intransigence. It is what the people of the UK voted to get away from. It is what will, eventually, drive a huge bust up in these negotiations. Because both the Tories and Labour are well aware that no party can avoid the fall out if they fold to the EU demands and come away with a deal with leaves the UK tied to the EU with double the cost and zero benefits.

Watch this space and hold tight. Because the gloves are going to come off and it's going to be a fist fight in the end.