Vocal Voices

The gloves are finally off and we are in to using the language of a messy divorce. The rhetoric has gone up and there are signs of friction.

Both sides are digging their heels in and it looks as though all offers, EEA, Canada+ and Chequers, are off the table. There are demands for "respect" talk of an "impasse" and Raab is reported to have said that there will be no extension to A50. There is also talk that the two sides are "a long way apart" on the EU/UK economic relationship and the Irish border post Brexit.

It sounds as though all these things have been bubbling under the surface for quite some time, but that both sides have been talking things up for the public's consumption. I think many of us have known this for more than a few months.

It does not bode well for a good relationship between us at the end of the process even though we all depend on it.

I'm terribly worried about it all, mainly for my children's futures

Me too. If we had said "No Deal" at the very start we would have had two years to get things in place. It would still be worse than the deal we already have, but we could have trained up border guards, customs inspectors, infrastructure and so on.

As things stand we do not, officially, have a no deal, but we now only have six months to prepare for it.

If we had said "No Deal" at the very start we would have had two years to get things in place.

Absolutely this. You can't negotiate with bullies.

I'm not going to say any more about the current situation, other than I hope that we'll now start to see some realism, and a sea-change in our focus and strategies, away from the EU and onto getting our country "right" after March 2019.

Workingman wrote:Me too. If we had said "No Deal" at the very start we would have had two years to get things in place. It would still be worse than the deal we already have, but we could have trained up border guards, customs inspectors, infrastructure and so on.

As things stand we do not, officially, have a no deal, but we now only have six months to prepare for it.

Maybe some form of words can still be cobbled together, but yes.
From the off I've said that the EU has the upper hand on any deal. When you think that we have bailed out of the EU's project - will they want to give us any sort of favourable deal?
Pretty obviously, no.
So preparing - seriously preparing - for no deal should have been a priority.
Border guards, customs, fishery protectuon, immigration services should all have been bolstered.
Anyway, it is what it is. Just don't cave at the eleventh hour because that would be a seriously bad move.

Ossie, my big worry is not so much about 'NoDeal', but how we handle it.

The issue is that the EU never had to, nor intended to, give us a deal, so we are where we are. We all knew that from day one.

We, the UK, have been pretending from the very start that we would get a deal to suit us and us alone. Remember the Brexiter mantra "they need us more than we need them"? Well the EU has now called our bluff and we have no cards left to play.

The problem now is that we never prepared for having to fold.

Cromwell, a Leaver, has seen it, shame many others are still with fingers in ears.

We handled two world wars. If we can't handle something like Brexit we don't deserve to be a country.

Honestly that is the scale of things. The whole thing of hand wringing and back biting is totally out of control. If New Zealand can run itself, have an economy, trade with the world and do well at it, then we're in pretty poor shape if we cannot leave the EU because we'll fall to pieces.

What happened to May was not just predictable, it was expected. Davis was totally prepared for this but May had to step in and had to be the one who knew how to handle it. Ably assisted by her EUphile civil servant.

Now the tears and the hand wringing. Finally May has been faced with the situation Davis was handling from Day 1. Namely this situation is this: "We are leaving, how would you prefer to trade with us in that future". Then keep telling the EU "NO" until they got the message and started being sensible instead of constantly carping on about needing "more information".

Yes the EU stance worked with Greece, but then the Greek economy, today, is on a par with Scotland; hardly comparing apples with apples.

Now May is sitting in the situation where she cannot deliver what the EU wants because her coalition partners will never accede to it. EVER. Should have thought about that before forcing Davis out and then demoting Raab and taking over.

Just go back a bit and look at Juncker's statements to Trump about how Trump could not put tariffs on the EU and get away with it. Notably the EU folded and did a deal within 2 months.

The EU will not endanger the trade it does with the UK unless they feel they have no possible political way to get out of it. Witness the EU notables now saying they think the best way out of this situation is for the UK to have a second referendum and then vote to Remain.

The best possible outcome for them.

Because they have painted themselves into a corner and can't see any way out without losing face.

Who's problem is that? Certainly not mine. Or it might be if I'm forced to take French Citizenship but I'm prepared to do that, it was my choice to live there and therefore my responsibility to see that I am able to continue. Not the responsibility of the entire UK to be in a political and economic union which is not good for the UK, just to make my life easier.

I have a different solution for them. It is staring them in the face really. Don't give the UK any dispensation on borders, or trade, we are leaving after all.

No, let them give Ireland the dispensation to have a soft border with the UK. After all Ireland is not in Schengen and never will be because of the NI border. Goods from Ireland already pass through the UK to get to Europe and those which pass from Ireland to Spain and France, direct, are treated to border controls, just like the UK today. If they want to put a border on the Irish sea, then put the border between Ireland and the EU. Then it is a simple matter of applying customs controls to all non Irish trade crossing from Ireland to the EU.

This keeps the Good Friday accord intact and the UK intact. It causes a fairly small bump for Irish vehicles crossing to the EU, but the second largest trading partner for Ireland, by a very long way, is the UK at 17%. The third largest, Belgium, at 8.6%. The US is 22%, based on 2016 figures. In fact when the UK leaves the EU, Ireland will go from 55% of trade in the EU to 38% of trade in the EU, or put another way, even less than the UK.

Instead of running for the hills because the EU salivated when we pressed their button, how about we actually wait and see what occurs?

After all the UK economy was going to tank and the chancellor was going to impose a "punishment budget" for even daring to VOTE for Brexit....

Here is a final thought to take away. The EU can, far more, afford to lose the economic activity of Ireland than it can the economic activity of the UK. I'm sure that is very clear in the eyes of the Irish.

If they want a second referendum, have it in NI, on separation from the UK. Once we have that farce over with we can get on with closing Brexit.

That what surprised me Suff - why was May surprised?

There seems to have been a feeling in some political circles that we could choose any form of Brexit like we choose a bar of chocolate in a newsagents. It was never going to be like that. Obviously some are doing it for political reasons whilst knowing that this isn't the case, but some others like May seem to genuinely believe it, hence the shock when reality intrudes. She should have been planning for the possibility of no deal for a long time.

Anyway, it is what it is. One way or another we are leaving, let's get on with it.

I agree that the EU may have had their no go areas from the very beginning but the two sides still need to be respectful towards each other. Ultimately both sides want to trade with each other, so surely it is not impossible to work something out which will keep trade moving along as freely as possible.. And that means meaningful suggestions from both sides. There is no point the EU saying that the UK wanted to leave so its up to the UK to find a solution. If we want to trade with each other then both sides must engage.

However, I agree you cant negotiate with bullies, and that is exactly what the EU are. They have to be stood up to. Perhaps I am old fashioned but I expected at least common courtesy towards Theresa May. I am glad she came out with fighting talk and I hope she will keep up the momentum. As with the general election fiasco and the terrible coughing fit she endured during her conference speech last year, I think even those who don't support her will admire the fact that whatever is thrown at her from all directions, she still seems to weather the storm - but its not the first time she has stumbled after following bad advice from her advisers.

Suff wrote:Witness the EU notables now saying they think the best way out of this situation is for the UK to have a second referendum and then vote to Remain.

The best possible outcome for them.

Maybe they are, but let us not forget that it is the very best deal for the UK as well - rebate, veto, no Schengen and no Euro.

We now hear that later today May is to address cabinet and reaffirm her belief in the Chequers deal. This comes amid rumours that cabinet is split with a majority wanting a Canada type deal. It is hard to imagine a bigger mess, but never mind, it is not our (Brexiter) fault it is totally owned by the big, bad, EU. Bullies.

Suff, Schengen does not come into the border problem as it is about the movement of people not goods. Also, your plan has already been bombed by the EU and UK. The EU does not allow for a hard border for good between member states. Putting a goods border round the Irish coast from the Atlantic, through the Celtic and Irish seas cuts Eire off from the EU. It is as unacceptable as the Irish sea border between the UK and NI, which effectively cuts NI off from the rest of the UK.

For now, until the technology comes along, the only 'solution' is a hard border. That would still be the case even with the forward thinking plan we never had.