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What did we learn from this evening in Westminster?

We learnt that May is stubbornly ploughing on with her unacceptable version of Brexit. We also learnt that the other 649 cannot agree on what they disagree about.

We are in as much of a muddle now as we were back in December when the 'meaningful vote' was deferred because it was feared that it it would be rejected by a significant margin. That eventually happened five weeks later after May failed to get any changes on the deal from the EU.

We have now had another delay and nothing has changed or been achieved in the interim. So May is preparing to go back to the EU where all the signs are that they are 'not for changing' © M. Thatcher. We now move to the 14th of February, so more time wasted.

Well, at least it looks like a No Deal Brexit is less likely.

Not really. The motion in parliament is non binding and the EU is pretty damned determined they won't make any changes now.

The chances that the EU will force an unintended No Deal Brexit are high. They expect the UK to fold and accept the backstop. But the backstop is even less likely to be accepted than the EU is to renegotiate the Backstop away.

A massive game of chicken where one belligerent can't even understand that the other belligerent is handcuffed to the steering wheel and has no brakes or ability to turn the engine off and the wheel has been locked on course by Parliament who can't even decide if they want to decide on something. Parliament is like some women right now. Don't know what they want, but know exactly what they don't want the second they see it.

Workingman wrote:What did we learn from this evening in Westminster?

Not much. May will still try and run the clock down and say "If no deal is unacceptable you'll have to accept my deal, because it's the only one on offer".
One thing Labour don't seem to realise (or won't acknowledge) is that the deal as it stands is the EU's deal as much as it is May's deal. The idea that after two years of negotiations and getting an agreement from the British government, that the EU will just say "OK fine, let's start all over again" - not going to happen is it?

May wants her deal. The ERG want to leave with No Deal.
Labour want to keep us in the EU, which is why they oppose no deal so much. Because if May takes no deal off the table Labour just refuse any and every deal that is offered, say it's all too difficult and wouldn't the country like to vote again now?

Leaving the EU on the 29th March is written into UK law. I think May's deal is a shocker too, but imo it's either going to be that deal or no deal.

I would like to ay that the combined sheningans of Cooper, Grieve and Bercow have left my opinion of our MPs lower than ever, and it's never been high.

Another thing we are now learning is that commentators are non-the-wiser about whether it was a win, lose or draw for May.

Line up 100 of them and you will get 100 different opinions.

What the EU is making out of this is anyone's guess.

Rich tea or digestive vicar?

cromwell wrote:One thing Labour don't seem to realise (or won't acknowledge) is that the deal as it stands is the EU's deal as much as it is May's deal.

Even less May's deal than the EU's deal. This deal is the Maximum the EU will accept and May was given a choice. Accept or walk away.

cromwell wrote:The ERG want to leave with No Deal.

Which is why they will back May to run the clock down in a completely futile attempt to get the EU to renegotiate the Maximum they are willing to offer. Remember, the EU still think that the UK will get to the 11th hour and revoke notification of A50. It is possible but it is way less likely than to ask for more time and they can't have more time unless they give a plan for how "the deal" is going to be accepted. Also it can't go beyond May unless the UK commits to staying in the EU for the full term of the next parliament.

cromwell wrote:I would like to ay that the combined sheningans of Cooper, Grieve and Bercow have left my opinion of our MPs lower than ever, and it's never been high.

My opinion of them could walk under a snake's belly wearing a top hat...

My personal opinion is that parliament has given May one last dart to throw. If she misses the bull all bets are off over what happens next.

The EU has again made it clear that the already signed WA will not be reopened - or will it? If May turns up with substantial changes to her plan there might be some slight movement of the goal posts. However, it is unlikely that May will allow herself to accept any substantial changes, so we will end up with the status quo - again.

If that happens, and Feb 14th is the deadline, parliament might revolt and attempt to neutralise the PM. That could be by another vote of no confidence or via a neutral or non-neutral motion put before parliament along the lines of “this House has considered the government’s plans to leave the European Union without a withdrawal agreement etc....(insert neutral or non-neutral clause here).”

The EU has already hinted that there could be a delay of A50 if there was to be a change of government following any of the action(s) above or a GE or a 2nd referendum. However, what would happen next is still anyone's guess.

The EU may have hinted, but they have categorically stated 2 things:

1. Any A50 Extension cannot go beyond the May EU elections
2. If and it is a big IF, an extension is to be granted, then there has to be a concrete plan to achieve the exit goals in place.

Point 2 is, essentially, saying that they will extend if that time is to be used to accept the signed deal. They won't extend in order to negotiate another deal.

Parliament is deluding itself if they think anything else is going to happen.

3 possible outcomes

1. sign the deal with the backstop
2. bang out with No Deal
3. revoke the A50 notification to leave

The EU, post the CJEU ruling, is banking on the fact that if they keep on saying no and the UK parliament keeps saying no, the end result will be the revoking of the A50 notification at the 11th hour.

The EU might want to put that under the heading "very risky strategy". As I've said before and will say again, the EU has absolutely no idea how the political system works in the UK.

Suff wrote:As I've said before and will say again, the EU has absolutely no idea how the political system works in the UK.

Eh?

We have been in the EU club for 46 years. The EU knows exactly how UK politics work, just as we know how its politics works. Stop the deflection and the pushing of blame onto the EU.

As things stand the EU is having to deal with a parliament where different factions are negotiating with each other in order to be top dog. Those factions are within parties and also across party lines as well as factions within the cross party groups. There is no cohesion in parliament nor a dominant faction to take control, only blah, blah, blah from the madding crowd.

Faced with such nonsense if I were the EU I would tell the UK to go do one; auf wiedersehen, au revoir, adiós, arrivederci, totsiens and goodbye.

That could be what happens, and at great cost to all of us, and the UK will be to blame for the most part.

Realistically I don't think it would be a wise decision to sign up to a deal without a get out of jail card.