Vocal Voices

Which is not good for Germany. At the same time the EU competition commissioner blocks a merger between the French and German train makers, on the basis that it will make a single company with an unstoppable monopoly on train manufacture...

Germany is technically in recession. For the EU this is a seriously bad thing because Germany is the main core of the Eurozone economy. Germany goes down and so does the Eurozone.

Everybody said that when Trump introduced tariffs that both the EU and China would win and the US would suffer. So far the US continues to grow and China and the EU are heavily impacted.

So much for the Ex Spurts...

Next up, German businesses estimate that with a No Deal Brexit German GDP will fall all of 2019 and into 2020....

The UK? Growing! Even with the uncertainty, ties to a Eurozone which is massively impacted with US tariffs, Italy in crisis and manufacturers trying to bail.

2019, I predict a year of surprises. The only thing which will not be a surprise is when Brexit runs down to the last 5 days and chickens lose heads.

Germany might technically be in recession, but its GDP still has growth. How bad the recession is or will be, is also down to other factors such as income, employment, manufacturing, and retail sales. GDP alone is not the be all and end all.

One thing we all know, or should know, is that growth cannot go on indefinitely, there have to be pauses. Germany is certainly going through a pause, and how that turns out will be largely down to how it is managed.

Another thing worth mentioning is that people often equate recession with depression. Germany is nowhere near being in a depression.

When it comes to US / China tariffs spat there are some interesting views. Yesterday I was reading that it could simultaneously be a good and a bad thing. The bad was that there would be a global impact but the economies in S.E. Asia, including China, would be hit the hardest. The good was that the global economy needs a reset.

For many decades the mature economies of the West have been exporting production and jobs to low cost economies such as China. They, in return, have ignored intellectual property rights, trademarks, health and safety rules, the exploitation of minors, the environment and human rights. China, in particular, has 'stolen' Western tech in order to build its own 'industries' to sell their goods in the West. Some of their products are very good, but ever so many are just cheap tat.

Chickens are coming home to roost.