Vocal Voices

The Beeb reported what I already knew. That Italy exceeded the number of deaths in China. They even stated the numbers.

The real point is that Italy has exceeded the China deaths with 41,000 cases and China is slated to reach 81,000 cases in the next two days.

Which means that Italy is running twice the levels of deaths that China did. The other stat the BBC missed was over 5,000 new cases in one day in Italy. Nearly twice what China peaked at.

This means that, unabated, Italy could equal the number of Chinese cases by Thursday next week but have twice the number of deaths.

Yet, still, people are partying, going to pubs and socialising in general.

It will be far too late for the hand wringing and blame game, a month from now, when the virus is running amok.

Sorry to be cynical, but I don't know how far I would trust Chinese statistics, TBH.

Well the guardian trusts them.

Have a read. Then go back and look at the picture. Everyone is wearing mask, gloves and eye protection.

That is what it takes. Forget social distancing, people need to be forcibly separated and total non interaction. Something the West is extremely reluctant to do.

I also think it should be a total lock down not Boris asking people nicely not to go to pubs and stuff huge queue at supermarkets just spreading the virus if us oldies have to isolate while we watch the rest of the country it seems pointless
China is a repressive country rulled by the state and only tell the world what they want us to know I dont believe a word they say

Ah yes, China, that place where if you disobeyed you got a €/S/£1,000 fine - that China? Not. Or is it the China where if you disobeyed you got welded in or shot? The one-party state China that controls every aspect of everyone's lives. China, the one place on the planet that could have enforced a lockdown of 15million+ people in the way it did.

Are those the points the BBC is missing?

OK, let us see what Bojoke can do to lockdown London in anything like the way Wuhan and other nearby cities was done or Macron with Paris, Merkel with Berlin.....New York, LA, Rio, Sydney.....

I never did get into the China blame game thing, but lets try to compare apples with apples.

I have also asked in other places whether there is a difference in the genetic makeup between Italians (Europeans in general) and Chinese / S.E. Asians, which could be a reason for the differences we are seeing - why we might be more susceptible.

BTW The BBC has an article giving the Italian and Chinese figures all in one place. It was easy to find. It has been there since tea time when the Italians release their latest figures, usually at 6 pm.

Workingman wrote:I have also asked in other places whether there is a difference in the genetic makeup between Italians (Europeans in general) and Chinese / S.E. Asians, which could be a reason for the differences we are seeing - why we might be more susceptible.

There may be. In the bodybuilding game it is said that black people are naturally the strongest, followed by those with Germanic genes.
As of of Thursday morning, according to the Richard Koch Institut, Germany had 10,999 confirmed cases, 2,801 more than the day previously, but only 20 deaths in total.
There are so many variables though.
The Germany have been testing since January. Many of their cases have been young people, ergo not so likely to die. Italy has the second oldest popualtion in the world, so people there are more likely to die.
Germany has 28,000 intensive care beds available, 25,000 of which have ventilators. we have 5,000 IC beds with ventilators.
Italy has 12.5 crical care beds per 100,000 people. We have 6.6 per 100,000 people.
Germany has 29.2 critical care beds per 100,000 people, the USA has 34.7 - China has 3.6.

So Germany has tested earlier, has a better equipped intensive care system than we do and has many more beds and ventilators available.

Technology re beds, drugs, ventilators and so on will obviously help. Different places, different results.

The question I put to my son, a Dr and researcher in Clinical Biology at Oxford, was about the effects of genetics on the spread of the virus in different populations ... The result: He asked his colleagues in various faculties and no one really knows.

Cromwell, Germany is now at 15,320 with 2,993 in one day. 44 dead now. The major difference is that Germany has 2 serious or critical cases.

Real time data

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Italy has 2,498 serious/critical cases. The UK has 20. Or so the report goes.

Now here is the trick. How many deaths will there be in the UK tomorrow. Theoretically, with only 20 in the critical category, it can only be 20 right? Germany should be 2.

This is the problem with stats.

WM, you are right about the brutality of the Chinese regime, then again they stood to lose as much as 100m people if they let it run wild. Tough choices make for tough decisions and they made them.

One wonders what decisions Italy would make with, say, 20,000 dead?