Vocal Voices

Earlier today the media was reporting that London could see the virus 'wiped out' within weeks. The information came from Public Health England and the University of Cambridge's MRC Biostatistics Unit.

However, this afternoon the SAGE group of advisors has said that the R number has gone from a range of 0.5 - 0.9 to 0.7 - 1.0. There is no consistency.

PHE produced a graph for England and everywhere was below 0.8 (NE and Yorks) with an average of 0.58 so where the top figure of 0.9 came from is anybody's guess. SAGE gives no mention of where its figures come from.

The numbers from both organisations are said to be from two weeks before the easing of the lockdown. We are living in an experiment, We wait to see what easing the lockdown means, so about two weeks. Then what?

In new cases two weeks. In deaths, anywhere up to 6 weeks.

Germany is trending down again even though they are opening up more. Personally I'm certain it is about more testing. Notably the UK is rising in testing numbers faster than anywhere in the EU. If we are testing more we should expect to catch those who have very few or no symptoms. In other words, if the R rate was not rising along with the testing numbers, at this stage, then the tests don't work.

Mixed messages? We've had nothing but.
If this crisis has proved anything it is that we have no shortage of experts, every one of whom has a different opinion.

That is why it is almost impossible to 'follow the science'.