And so the grumbling begins.

[Workingman]

There are calls for a Cabinet reshuffle when MPs return next Tuesday. Former ministers, some senior MPs and some of those newly elected are closing ranks and they are not holding back with the language when describing the performance of the government, some Cabinet members and the PM.

This all comes on the back of polls showing Conservatives and Labour neck-and-neck on 40%. If that direction of travel continues it might not be long before the 1922 Committee starts to receive some letters. There are already rumours that many Tories do not want Bojo handling things for long after the transition period ends on December 31st and Brexit proper begins. However, therein lies the problem: who do you replace him with?

The shine has quickly dulled on Rishi Sunak and the talent pool is pretty shallow, hardly puddle deep. The country at large is unlikely to take to any of those who stepped up to the podium during the daily briefings as none of them are now trusted so it could well be a lesser known figure. That might not be a bad thing for both the Conservatives and the country.

[Suff]

4 years from another election and in the middle of a pandemic and the Tories are only neck and neck with Labour on support?

With an 80 seat majority they can write their letters, but the party faced a coalition, a moderate election win and a catastrophic 3 years of May and her hung parliament before Boris took over and manhandled the ship into winning form.

Whilst some may mutter and complain, reality will surface when they try to take action.

This level of betrayal will not be rewarded at the polls and that will be made clear.

No matter what the aspirations of a press who want to cause disruption to sell news, the situation will continue as it is for some time.

When, not if, the UK emerges from the EU, unscathed by punitive EU demands, the vote which put the tories in place to deliver it will be evident again.

[Workingman]

When, not if, the UK emerges from the EU, unscathed by punitive EU demands, the vote which put the tories in place to deliver it will be evident again.

That is definitely what the Tories will be aiming for otherwise they could be in deep trouble.

Come May 2021 the new order will have been in full operation for five months and coronavirus will still be with us in some form. At that time the UK could quite possibly have just come out of a Covid second wave and the annual flu season. Government papers readily admit that this could be the case and that things might be in a mess, but the truth is that nobody knows. From that time they have just three years to stabilise the economy from whatever position it is in then build it back up and that is not going to be an easy task.

What they do fear is the direction of travel of the polls. At the moment their approval ratings are dropping and Johnson's personal ratings have hit the floor. Even some Tory MPs, council leaders, councillors and donors have all admitted that the coronavirus pandemic has been mismanaged and the performance shambolic. These are the reasons the daggers are being sharpened.

An 80 seat majority does give the Tories the ability to work virtually unhindered, but they have to get things right. Unfortunately the signs do not look good. Get things wrong and those seats could be lost in a flash. Don't forget that there is a potential tipping point on May 6th 2021 when local elections are held. They are a roll up of the elections postponed from last May plus those that are on schedule. The natural order of things is that the sitting government takes a bit of a hit. Squeaky bums time.

[cromwell]

I agree with you Suff, but only to an extent. Yes it is early days, and if you are going to make mistakes do them early and not just before the next election.
But some of the cabinet imo are just not up to it. I'm not saying this in response to recent events. I've never thought much of Grant Shapps, or Gavin Williamson.
Johnson's appeal is just that - a lot of people find him an easy person to warm to. Whether he has it in him to be a good PM is another matter and part of the problem is that the talent pool in the Conservative party is a bit thin, plus they are still a party divided on Europe (as the country still is).
Another problem they have is that the media now is intensely pro remain. The Daily Mail has switched from leave to remain, so has the Sunday Times. This explains their unrelenting attacks on the Tories in general and Johnson in particular.
All that said, look at the alternative. Take Johnson out of the picture and who stands out in the tory ranks? Take Starmer out of the picture for Labour though and blimey O'Riley, it's the same only worse for Labour. Dawn Butler? Angela Rayner? Anneliese Dodds? Crikey.
Starmer is going to recive the big build up from the press before the next election. Expect to hear the phrases "Prime Minister in waiting" and "forensic intelligence" bandied about quite a lot!
The next election is four years off and much can happen before then. Covid has turned the world upside down. The Tories imo have not handled Covid well. The media will not give them any sort of a break, and they have to realise that.
There are still some policies they can deploy which will increase their popularity, but they have to get a grip.

[Suff]

When you say get a grip? It's been pretty clear from the first time that anyone agreed to shut down the whole economy that Covid was only put a bay whilst lockdown was on. It is also crystal clear, for anyone who wants to look, that it takes about 3 months for small numbers of virus cases to ramp up again. So 3 months after lockdown ends, it's back to roaring again. However the low hanging fruit is gone, those who were most susceptible didn't survive the first round.

So how, exactly, does the government give advice, control the virus and control people determined to go to destinations which were virtually guaranteed to run high levels of the virus during their holiday? Shambles? What were they supposed to do? Just let it go and "deal" with the situation when they get home, if they can?

As for schools, forget it. They've been in political hands of activists for decades, that was never going to be anything other than a shambles, each third was never going to be happy with the other 2/3 of a position.

However, going forward, we hear that the government can't even talk about a vaccine. Well you have to dig for the info, but it is available.

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s medical regulator will be able to grant temporary authorisation for any coronavirus vaccine that meets safety and quality standards but before it has received a full licence, under new plans set out on Friday.

The government said that under its proposals the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) would be able to grant this status to a vaccine while it underwent the full licensing process, with reinforced conditions to ensure safety.

The move, described as a last resort in the case of a strong public health justification, means the national regulator will be able to act this year if a vaccine arrives, before Britain has fully left the European Union on Dec. 31.

Theoretically the UK can't issue a certification for the Oxford Vaccine because it is the EU that controls that inside the EU. Because of our "alignment" for 2020, we're supposedly blocked too. However this move is likely to unblock the situation. Once it is unblocked, expect strong discussion on a vaccine.

What is going to be more interesting is that the Oxford vaccine will still have to go through the EU certification process before it can be used in the EU. So had we joined the EU vaccine initiative, we'd have been crippled until they made a decision.

How will the people of the UK feel when we start distributing a vaccine with a 100% antibody and T cell success rate, whilst the EU is still trudging through it's processes. We have 100m doses on order, they are made in the UK, India has licenced the production for India, just how many EU countries have lined up to license the UK vaccine? Numbers between -1 and 0 accepted.

It is a very long way from now to May and there is a huge amount of things that are going to change. I did think it was odd that India was the first country to announce the likely certification of the vaccine for use, whilst the UK government was not saying anything. The snippet above now explains that.

So when we say "get a grip", does that include unblocking all vaccinated UK people, getting the country back on it's feet, allowing UK citizens with a vaccine to go anywhere on holiday and come home without restrictions?

Because that is the likely eventuality by December.

As for the Daily Manipulate. They never supported Brexit. They were against the EU. Once that was over they had to be against something else so they are against the government and the way the government is handling the EU separation. The DM decided, quite a while ago, that being for something means that, on average, about 25% of the people will agree with you; but being against something means that your average support is more like 45% to 50%.

The DM doesn't stand for anything, they stand against everything that will sell media. Once the year ends, the vaccine is in full flow and the EU has been flipped the bird, it can get back to being against Starmer and his crowd of "useful idiots".

Granted that picture could change, but I doubt very much.

For those who didn't follow the Oxford vaccine, this is not a new vaccine. Is it the MERS vaccine (fully certifiefd), with the protein signature changed. That means the way it works and what it is made out of has the same side effects as the fully certified MERS vaccine. They just needed to verify that they got the right protein and that it stimulates the right response. They've done that in spades. Now it's all about gathering the results, writing the very long documentation, producing the synopsis and executive brief and getting the right signatures in the right places.

Then we'll have a vaccine which works. Then the world will turn again and people will be able to get on with their lives.

At which point the moaning going on is going to change. That's a winning combination and nobody is going to start writing to the 1922 commission over that.

To repeat. May is a very, very, long way off.