Vocal Voices

We sign a trade deal with Japan.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54116606

Key Point

Ms Truss said the UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement means 99% of exports to Japan will be tariff-free.

Critics say it is very low value. Critics fail to see that 99% means that our trade can grow massively without hitting trade barriers.

Ah well. Untrusted, unloved, unwanted....

How long did it take the EU to agree the same deal with Japan????

How comprehensive is it?

"The agreement we have negotiated - in record time and in challenging circumstances - goes far beyond the existing EU deal, as it secures new wins for British businesses in our great manufacturing, food and drink, and tech industries," she said.

I thought we were crap at it? That only the EU had the resources to negotiate??

Must be a mistake on the part of Japan.

Correction: according to the Nikkei.

Japan and the U.K. on Friday agreed on most of the substance of a free trade pact meant to ensure continuity and prevent tariffs as Britain leaves the European Union, with a goal of reaching an agreement in principle by the end of this month.

Nothing is signed, as yet. And it is a £15bn deal so some way short of the ~£680bn deal we have with the EU. Japan is the world's third largest economy so we only have to find deals worth £650bn or so with the other 163 world economies to break even, some of them with a GDP the size of Carlisle's.

How many deals do we have so far, and how much are they worth?

I am not saying the proto deal is bad, it's just that we need so many more, and they could take years. 50 or so according to Jacob Rees Mogg.

Yes but it is a deal that the Japanese government can vote on.

The reason it is not being voted on before Jan is it can't be agreed till Jan. But we are gearing up to get it agreed.

It is only £15bn because that is the current trade. If we choose to do more trade with them (direct imports for instance), it could be a whole lot more. The EU27 is only just over 3* the size of Japan by GDP. not to be sniffed at as a trading partner and something to be leveraged.

I've been looking at TPP and without the US in play, given our intention to join, stated in June 2020, we could close a chunk of countries in one go. If the other countries who have declared interest also join, then things look a whole lot more interesting.

Of additional interest, sealing the deal with Japan makes TPP far more likely as they are the largest member in the TPP now.

I suspect things will become more evident as the year goes on. TPP also brings in Australia, NZ and Singapore.

Things to look for, things to hope for.

Don't forget that the deal with Japan isn't an automatic entry to the TPP, we still have to apply to join the CPTPP. That opens up a few doors, but there are still rules and regs we have to comply with and which we have no control over, and we still have to make FTA deals with the likes of Oz and NZ for things only relevant to us and them.

There is a long road ahead.

Indeed there is WM. However if we can agree a FTA with Japan, the largest member of the TPP today and notoriously hard to agree such deals with, then the others are well within reach.

This is a far step from the position of the UK isolated and unable to make trade deals because we can't agree with the EU.

As more deals follow suit, it is going to apply a LOT of pressure. It is going to make future deals with other countries easier as we establish a framework that everyone can agree to.

We were told it would take years before we would get our first deal and a decade before we were able to get similar deals as the EU has.

The EU-Japan deal took a decade. Ditto CETA. When the UK comes out with a deal with Canada and OZ and NZ, that position is going to be subject to intense ridicule.

When we don't get a deal with the EU, but keep racking up deals with other countries, there is going to be a lot of finger pointing.

I am anticipating the next few years as the reality comes out. Which is that the UK is really easy to do business with. Something the EU has known for 47 yeasr but we, the British, apparently, don't believe.

So I shall remain positive for a UK with trading relationships around the world.

I, also, don't expect any fallout of the current internal markets bill with Japan. That deal is a FTA between the UK and Japan, not with bits of the UK, parts of Ireland and Japan. So there is no possibility that the bill could set up a conflict with the FTA with Japan. .