Vocal Voices

Brexit actually begins.

It is when we realise that all the calls to stop:

Posturing
Brinkmanship
Call my bluff

Were all down to the viewpoints of the people calling for them.

So what was actually going on and what were the two things which signal the outcome?

First it has been a high stakes game of chess from the outset. Both sides playing to win. But this is political chess. So winning is not quite what you might think it is.

On the EU side, winning was getting the UK to bow down and submit. Negotiate the terms of surrender and move on, supremely confident that nothing will change and that the power of the EU rules all.

On the UK side, winning is not submitting and not getting called out for it.

So, no, you didn't read me incorrectly. There was never any expectation that the EU would submit to the UK requirements, quit out fishing grounds and give us a free trade deal. Zero, the EU were never going to do it.


Second was to manipulate the EU into taking the blame for the UK win. Yes this is a sub goal of the primary, but still a primary goal in its own right.

After all it required the UK to make all the running, make all the suggestions, write a complete proposal that EU could refuse to accept and to keep on negotiating, over and over again. Setting deadline after deadline but not acting on them. Letting the EU kick the can down the road until we got to a summit just before the expiry of the EU drop dead date.

It also required a sharp bit of political manipulation. Right before the EU summit, our PM set Germany and France at each others throats, backed them into their opposing corners and fired them at the summit.

In all the reams and reams of bumf that will be written on this situation, there are two key things which point to the above.

One,

He added: "Trade talks are over. The EU have effectively ended them by saying they do not want to change their negotiating position."

Two you'll have to dig for a link because it has been buried in the first.

When the European Council leaders arrived at Brussels for the Summit, yesterday, the communication had been written. It was in line with what Von der Leyen had agreed with Boris, for the next two weeks they would significantly intensify talks and try to come to a text which could be completed in the coming months by the end of October.

When the leaders left, the communication was changed. The UK was to give ground on the three EU demands, fishing, level playing field and EU court controls, or it was not worth negotiating more.


SLAM. The trap closes. First and Second goals achieved, checkmate. Now the UK can send the EU away because they spent the last two days binding themselves into a course which REQUIRES the UK to submit to the EU demands before they will move forward. It is almost certain that this was due to categoric veto threats on ratifying the final agreement by at least two member states.

A long time ago I read up on Boris and his time as Mayor of London. The conclusion was that people became invested in Mr mop head idiot and approached dealing with the office of the Mayor on that basis without doing the requisite background verification to win their case. In most cases those who fell for Mr mop head idiot wound up casualties being taken off the field of battle in body bags.

It is worth repeating a #10 spokesman's statement to the press.

He added: "Trade talks are over. The EU have effectively ended them by saying they do not want to change their negotiating position."

Buckle up, it's going to be a ride.

If by ride you mean a complete and utter s*it show, then yes agreed.

Kaz, it's all deflection from the truth, let it ride. The pigeons are coming home and are about to sh1t on all of us - leavers and remainers alike. Well, those of us who live and work in the UK.

It is simple, the EU don't want to negotiate a deal for the UK and EU, they want to gain access to UK markets as if the UK are in the EU.

The UK does not want that and will not accept that.

The problem has been that there has been no way for the government to exit the talks without taking 100% of the blame.

Now the situation has changed. The EU has been manipulated into saying what they really mean and it has been used to close the talks.

Barnier has Been told not to come and that they will discuss the terms under which the UK will talk to the EU.

This falls into two categories. The EU actually starts negotiating and bringing forward the points on which they are willing to compromise and the the compromises they want in turn.

Or the EU discusses practical matters relating to the movement of people and goods under WTO rules.

Notably the press was all ready to tell us how the UK was stepping down from its brinkmanship and was capitulating in the face of continued EU negotiation.

They have convinced themselves that the UK has no option but to capitulate and do what the EU wants.

So much so that they have even ignored the fact that Barnier has been told not to come on Monday and they continue to spout the Pre arranged verbiage about intensified negotiations leading to a deal at the end of October.

This all died when the council went off piste and put out a statement which was not pre agreed. Giving the UK room to terminate the talks and take the moral high ground.

As next week rolls on and negotiations do not restart, reality will sink in. Then reaction will begin. For those who know about Kubler Ross, this will be a very interesting situation.

My best guess is that anger will last until some time in November and acceptance will not happen until some time in 2022.

I can easily be wrong, but it will be so interesting to watch it all play out.

Ever since he took over Boris has been stuck on a bucking bronco, unable to get off without fatally damaging himself. Just waiting for the horse to put one foot wrong and give him the path out he needs.

The only possible no catastrophe ending, now, is for the EU to come to the table and start talking trade.

The problem is the EU is more scared of allowing the UK to walk away unscathed than it is in crippling segments of the EU economy. This has always been the problem.

Would you get back on that horse if you didn't need to? Without a cast iron guarantee that it is tamed?

I wouldn't.