I was just wondering how we were doing, comparativley

[Suff]

In our goal of eradicating Covid.



Certainly steady progress and in a positive direction. These are yesterdays figures.

[Workingman]

We are now running up against the Pareto Principle.... the rates of decline in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will slow as we head towards single figures - it's the 80:20 rule.

I just hope the "meddlers" do not use this well known phenomenon to scream that we are not doing enough and that we need to do more. We are never going to get to zero and it will take time to get numbers down to more manageable levels, but as we do so we are going to have to ease up and at the same time accept more casualties.

And it is not just a UK problem, it's a global one. We all need to get the numbers down, but we also have to realise that other places will do so at different rates and times. It is going to be a rolling programme and one that will last a while yet.

[Suff]

It certainly will but the pattern is fairly constant now. Slow, steady and highly unlikely that deaths will suddenly ramp up. More like they will fall to double figures soon and then down to single over time.

It will take a few months but they will be able to claim a clear victory this year.

[Workingman]

We look to be forming into three groups.

There is the anti-masker, anti-vaxxer open everything up group.

There are the zero Covid lockdown hermits.

And there is the much broader group who want some opening up but with some restrictions.

I don't think that either of the first two have a prayer of getting their way, so that leaves the more cautious but hopeful crowd. The problem is finding the middle way that keeps some sort of control yet gives us some freedoms back.

It is not going to be easy and it will take some time. We will be bumping along for a while yet is my guess.

[Workingman]

The rates of cases and deaths continues to slow, as we knew they would, and it looks likely to be the end of April before we are back to mid October 2020 figures.

That's cracking good news, but the much better news is that at current rates we will have vaccinated 25 million with first doses by Friday. That is getting on for 50% of working age adults. Keeping that rate up will see 32 million of us vaccinated by the end of the month - almost half of us. And remember, there are about19 million below the age of 15 and they are thought not to need the jab at all just yet.

All adults will have had their first dose by the end of April, and that's some achievement! It's not over by a long shot, but if we stay sensible and vigilant we will be getting there - both sets of numbers say so.

[Suff]

It is, very good news.

[Suff]

It is looking like the EU is heading back into a 3rd wave. It will be very instructive to see how the UK does now we have so many vaccinated.

We have also done 1.5 tests per million population. Our testing cadence continues to grow, we were just ahead of the US, another 6 weeks or so and we'll be double the US test rate at this divergence.

If we are looking much harder and the numbers/deaths continue to fall, then it means the lockdown and vaccination combo is working.

At the current cadence, we will have vaccinated 24m people by the end of today. Although at that same cadence it will take us another three weeks before we hit the 50% of the population mark which is considered to be the equivalent of herd immunity.

Meanwhile the EU has its vaccine begging bowl out to the US. Tough love there I guess.

Bojo is likely to provoke even more fury later in the year as he has committed to giving away any surplus vaccines to 3rd world countries, regardless of the state of play in the EU.

Well all this infighting aside, the UK continues to do well and perform strongly. I hope this will save lives and kill this thing so we don't have a third wave.

[Workingman]

My numbers from last week have held up pretty well. I can live with it taking a week more than I predicted to hit 32 million. The announcement from MH mid-week said that production problems have eased and he suggested that we will be going again and that all adults (18+) would now be done by the end of June.

And let's not forget that we are now bumping up against the12 week mark for second doses and they have to be done, so we will be running two processes in parallel.

[Suff]

Yes I reconed that the second doses would keep first doses down a bit and factored that in.