How to deal with vaccine crisis?

[Suff]

Well first you have precipitate a vaccine crisis.

You do this by applying lead footed, dead hand, politics and paperwork to a process which is supposed to save the lives of people who are dying. RTFHN. Lots of them.

You excuse yourself by saying "We're better than everyone else in the world, look, we're looking harder and so won't make the mistakes they will.

Then, when you have applied a stupid and overly rigid process, whilst people die, you decide that writing a piece of paper and handing over money is the end of it. Don't follow up, don't ask "what can we do", don't work with the provider to find out what needs to be done up front, in some cases 6 months up front, to ensure that the vaccine production will flow at the expected rate.

No, no, we don't need to do any of these things, we're the EU and we're BIG and if anyone doesn't do as it says on the contract, then we'll just bully the crap out of someone till we get what we want.

So here comes the crisis. The UK started deciding which vaccines would be the front runners, which would be likely to make certification and which would need to be in volume production end of 2020 in order for the UK to get what it needs. The UK started this in May/June 2020. Started pushing money into AZ in July and September and that bore fruit in January. Even then, AZ struggled to deliver what they'd promised. As did Pfizer.

No Pharma company has _ever_ had to try and ramp up production so fast, for so much volume. That is _ever_. The UK recognised that and did everything it could to try and alleviate the problems before they started.

The EU, of course, is the largest vaccine producer in the world (well it was till the UK left which they still seem to be counting), not sure it is today. So they were supremely confident that simply signing a bit of paper, 4 months after the UK, Israel and the US had inked their deals and handing over a wad of cash, would "do the job".

And there is the crisis. Even after all the pre work put in by the UK, the US and Israel, vaccine supply was poor initially. I guess if I delve into the Indian press I'll see that the VII has had similar issues as they had a deal to mirror the UK but a few days after.

So there is the EU, streets behind everyone else, production in chaos, deliveries falling behind by the month (did you notice the pleading to the US, not just for vaccines but for raw materials? That is so significant the press missed it. Again), governments of member states breaking ranks and going to Russia and China for support when the EU screwed it up. So what do the hardcore of the EU do? They pass laws to restrict vaccine exports, whilst at the same time berating other countries for not exporting vaccines, whether they are or not.

So now we have a real crisis. The Pfizer vaccine is so expensive they had only ordered enough as a stopgap until the AZ vaccine was fully online. But the AZ vaccine seems to be as far away, or further, from online in NL and BE, today, as it was at the beginning of January.

So some prize idiot in the EU thinks "what can we do about this? I know let's blame those useful idiots across the channel and cast doubt on their vaccine!". So they cast doubt on the AZ vaccine by saying it is ineffective. Except the UK is vaccinating exactly the people that these EU member states are casting doubt on the effectiveness and the UK is doing roll up studies following vaccine. Especially on transmission rates and infection rates. The doubt is not true.

The drowning politicians are thrown back in the water, without a life raft, to come up with a new plan. Which they do. Two people. TWO. With no evidence other than they were diagnosed with blood clots, have suddenly proven that the AZ vaccine is dangerous and should not be used.

The member state politicians, flush with their new life raft, start blocking the delivery of the AZ vaccine again. It's all the fault of them Brits you know, they sold us a dud vaccine. It's not our fault because we're a bunch of useless wankers that couldn't organise an orgy in a whorehouse. No, no, it's them Brits again.

It is very easy to ban a product you don't really have any of to inject. It gives you a cast iron excuse for having failed to deliver and it is all someone else. The EU blame game, all over again.

Except there is a slight fly in the ointment.

The UK continues to fly ahead with the AZ vaccine. Blood clots? Not here. In fact the more we give it out, the more we prove that the effectiveness, for the vast majority of the people, is very high. It was only sample size that was driving down the effectiveness. As the sample size has grown, the effectiveness has grown dramatically. Meaning that there were quite a lot of edge cases at the beginning but they truly were edge cases which become drowned in the vast majority of normal people who respond normally.

Then there is the other little fly in the ointment. 1.4 billion Indians will receive Two doses of the AZ vaccine. They're not planning on using any other, they are all far too expensive. When that happens and the results come in, the EU attempts to block the vaccine and use it to excuse their terminal inability to manage themselves into a wet paper bag, let alone out of one, will become blindingly obvious to a blind deaf and dumb person.

The final fly in the ointment, for the drowning EU politician, is that the AZ vaccine is the vaccine which will immunise the world. Because it is an "at cost" vaccine which will undercut any other on the market and those countries struggling the most will not buy more expensive. Meaning that the evidence that the AZ vaccine was not dangerous will be even larger.

Norway had 13 very old people die of the Pfizer vaccine due to severe allergic reactions. Their response? They pushed on and left it up to the doctors to decide. It was "too important" to stop the rollout even if the vaccine was killing people.

But, of course, blocking AZ is not stopping the rollout is it? Because they hardly have any......

Not the way I'd handle a crisis! I cannot see any way any politicians, other than those who broke ranks and reached out to the likes of Russia and China for unapproved vaccines (EMA approved), who will be seen as proactive and caring about their own people, regardless of the reality of the fact; will escape the full wrath of the people at the next set of polls.

What a mess. And people think Mr Mophead is bad!.

Just to finish this, we are talking about a difference of some 100m vaccine doses over a 6 month period.

Did anyone do the math as to just how many people live in the EU and how many doses they need to get two doses??? If they have, I haven't seen it.

The EU needs 1 BILLION doses to get a double vaccine out to the entire population. Yep the EU is more than 100m people more than the US. After all the crap and stick the UK has taken over the whole covid mess and the damage deliberately done by the regional assemblies, adroitly massaged by those politicians outside the country, this is one that I am going to relish watching. Nobody in the UK is breaking ranks now, success is its own growth factor and nobody can derail success to try and make short political capital of it. So the news from the UK will continue to be good. The news from the EU will continue to be disarray. The consequences of that will be felt across the polls for years to come. Geert Wilders, for one, will benefit dramatically.

Serves them right. If they had actually asked for help we would have helped because that is who we are.

[Workingman]

AstraZeneca has reported 37 cases of blood clots in Europe -15 DVT and 22 pulmonary. Just a few more that TWO.

Individual nations, not the EU, have taken decisions to pause use of the O/AZ vaccine - standard practice.

In the media: "Germany and France have supplies of the vaccine going to waste, with both countries having used fewer than half their supplies of the AstraZeneca jab so far."

A. They have not run out, as per the OP claim: nowhere has.
B. The doses are not going to waste. The EMA did not approve the vaccine till 29th of January 2021 and it has a shelf life of up to six months. The doses are not being used at present. That is not the same as "going to waste".

That's it, I'm out. Can't be arsed with the rest of the rant.

[Suff]

Did I say going to waste? Can't find that in the OP. It may be in the media, but it didn't come from me.

You did a bit of slight of hand on the figures by not posting the entire paragraph from the Astrazenaca publication on blood clots.

So far across the EU and UK, there have been 15 events of DVT and 22 events of pulmonary embolism reported among those given the vaccine, based on the number of cases the Company has received as of 8 March. This is much lower than would be expected to occur naturally in a general population of this size and is similar across other licensed COVID-19 vaccines. The monthly safety report will be made public on the European Medicines Agency website in the following week, in line with exceptional transparency measures for COVID-19.

Nor did you refer to the paragraph before it.

A careful review of all available safety data of more than 17 million people vaccinated in the European Union (EU) and UK with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca has shown no evidence of an increased risk of pulmonary embolism, deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or thrombocytopenia, in any defined age group, gender, batch or in any particular country.

I will leave others to decide whether Italy blocking export of AZD1222 then stopping delivery of the vaccine in Italy, will go down well.

There have been dozens of fully documented instances of deaths, due to extreme allergic reactions, caused by the Pfizer jab. These same health authorities chose to keep on going.

The EMA has no evidence that AZD1222 caused any blood clots. As per this reuters article.

So far the number of stories about AZD1222, claiming it is ineffective or other things, seem to be running parallel to the number of people dying as a direct result of the Pfizer jab. At least that is how it seems.

It is impossible to not draw the conclusion that member states, under fire from their people and press, need an excuse. Especially one which is not associated with the EU, but the UK.

[Kaz]

An expert on TV this morning said 40 cases of clots from 17 million vaccinations. Fewer than one would expect to occur normally in the population. I'm happy to have had my jab, I really don't know what those EU countries are playing at. How many people there will die of Covid while they shilly-shally?

[miasmum]

and thank God we are not shilly shallying with them

[medsec222]

We have had ours and were very glad to get them.

[Workingman]

Just as an aside. This is NOT an EU thing.

The countries pausing the use of the O / AZ vaccine are doing so on the advice of their own medical experts - they are acting independently. It is standard practice when anomalies occur - always has been, always will be.

The EU's EMA says that the vaccines should still be used - that is the EU's advice, Independent countries within the EU do not have to follow it.

There is no shortage of the vaccine and it is not out of date. There is a pause in the vaccination process to determine the truth of the matter, it is not a ban.

[TheOstrich]

Just as an aside. This is NOT an EU thing.
The countries pausing the use of the O / AZ vaccine are doing so on the advice of their own medical experts - they are acting independently. It is standard practice when anomalies occur - always has been, always will be.
The EU's EMA says that the vaccines should still be used - that is the EU's advice, Independent countries within the EU do not have to follow it.
There is no shortage of the vaccine and it is not out of date. There is a pause in the vaccination process to determine the truth of the matter, it is not a ban.

There are countries outside the EU who have also paused the AZ jabs as well, I think; can't remember which but a couple of African countries?

Just what is the shelf-life of a vial of Covid vaccine. I thought it was 6 days, or am I getting muddled up with the Pfizer? If it's more than 6 days, then why the mad rush to get people in for the jab literally on the day when there's vaccine "left over" due to no-shows, so on?

[miasmum]

The Pfizer vaccine has to be defrosted and used within so many hours, if it is not used it is destroyed. That is the reason they try to call people in to use any left overs. There are often more doses in a vial than originally planned for so there are often left overs.

[Workingman]

Just what is the shelf-life of a vial of Covid vaccine?

For the O /AZ it is six months. It has not been in production for that time so all doses produced are still in date and usable - pause or no pause. It is also manufactured in facilities around the globe, some in the EU, so it is not uniquely a UK /EU produced vaccine.