Vocal Voices

The UK covid stats hit a very low milestone. 1,730 new cases reported and 7 deaths.

Sunday is always lower than the rest of the week for obvious reasons and I expect todays reported figures to jump a bit. But these numbers are a gateway to no deaths and double digit new cases.

Once we reach those levels, the pressure to unlock more is going to mount.

I keep reading about the R number in the press. Whilst they go to great lengths to tell you that a R number of 1.2 is compound growth, they do not go to any lengths at all to tell you that R0.8 is a self diminishing decline and that unless the R number falls to 0.4 or less, the reduction in the virus will become smaller and smaller.

I guess we'll get a sudden R number update when it becomes totally obvious that numbers are reaching zero.

The goalposts have been moved many times.
The NHS has not been overwhelmed, hospitals have not buckled, we don't have 500,000 dead or 4,000 dying every day.
We seem to have an effective vaccine now. Seven dead out of a population of seventy million is a tiny amount. There is very little justification for lockdown as far as I can see.

We are doing a great deal of opening up from today and there is a time lag of between 14 - 21 days - nobody knows the actual lag - between cause and effect. Let's wait till we get the figures from 3rd May on. I predict a slight rise in the figures but nothing on 'Foghorn' Ferguson's scale.

Perhaps, but that might also be limited by the vaccine rollout. It may be that the opening holds the new cases over the 1k mark or it may be that it keeps them above the 500's. We will, as you say, just have to wait and see.

The interesting point, as you say, is the 14-21 day incubation period. In that time we could see the numbers drop significantly before any uptick. Having said that, 60k to 2.5k is "significant". But 2.5k to 0.5k is a game changer. Even more so if it also continues during the unlocking.