Vocal Voices

What an absolute surprise, said nobody whatsoever.
Normality is just around the next bend, isn't it?
Just one last effort, one last push.
Either the vaccines work (and every indication is that they do) or they don't. If they do there is no need for social distancing or masks.
They just can't give the power over others up.

Anyway, no need to worry - the government have got another slogan for us, I'm sure.

I take it that this refers to what Raab said yesterday.

I try to social distance as best I can, but for many people it is a ship that has already sailed. As for masks; I put it on when I go in a shop and take it off when I come out. When outside their efficacy is very much reduced, as Prof. Mark Wolport let slip the other day.

I think Raab, the Johnson and government will find, come June the 21st, that matters will have been taken out of their hands - people will grasp normality as much as they can. The signs are already there.

What happens thereafter is anybody's guess, but it would not surprise me to see some restrictions being legally brought back at some point. It will largely be in our hands but unfortunately there are too many idiots about.

If Covid 19 is a seasonal virus, like flu is, it will probably return next autumn come what may.
Though doubtless the government will blame "easing the restrictions" for this.
But if the vaccines work there should be no need for lockdowns. But I bet there will be.

Yes, we do know that the vaccines work, but we also know that they do not offer 100% protection from infection or transmission, and there lie the problems. Ranges vary from 68% to 90%. Then there will be the take-up numbers of those in the priority groups as well as those (the very young) who do not get an injection. That all leaves a huge cohort able to keep cases, hospitalisations and deaths going.

There is also little evidence for seasonality. Covid is currently raging in places with much higher temperatures than the UK in summer, yet that is not so in the southern hemisphere which is currently going into winter. Social factors, population density and lifestyles appear to be playing a much bigger part.

I do not ever want to see another lockdown, even a light one, which is what we have really had, but I would not put my mortgage on it.

Even if masks / social distancing are no longer "compulsory" after 12th June, I'll probably continue to wear one, certainly in shops and down the high street. It's one of the behavioural sea-changes that have happened to some of us due to the pandemic.

Vaccines can only do so much, as WM says; there are still issues over efficacy and take-up. To be honest, I fully expect a third wave, probably in September in line with schools / universities returning again, or even earlier if the Government does not stop foreign travel. There will be a rash of variants which we will not be able to stop, as the recent outbreaks in Hounslow and other Indian-ethnic populated areas has shown.

"Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst". The trouble is, I have no confidence in this Government's "preparations".

And in other mixed messages the Johnson has just overturned what Raab mumbled by saying that there is a "good chance" social distancing can be scrapped next month.

Judging by his latest photoshoot it already has, along with masks.

Ah, they soon change the picture from this....



Look at that power stance. Impressive - Not.

Here's the bit that gets me. This is all about numbers.

OK here are the numbers I have seen so far about a vaccinated population.

75
50
0

75% less likely to catch it even if exposed.

OK so that's 25% of the people exposed likely to get the virus.

50% less likely to transmit it even if exposed.

OK so that's 12.5% of the people who are, possibly, going to catch the virus from an exposed person.

0 that is Zero, percent chance of dying if you are exposed and have been fully vaccinated.

Now numbers change and that 0% will go up to somewhere between 0.001 and 0.01, at some time.

But here's the thing. Mask, no mask, what's the difference? Masks and social distancing were a replacement for a vaccine when we didn't have a vaccine. Now we have a vaccine. OK masks and social distancing remains a requirement until we are fully vaccinated, some time at the end of the year. But only in certain circumstances.

So let's run the numbers, 12.5% chance of catching the virus. Even then there are other figures. Of those who catch the virus after being vaccinated, roughly 90% of them either don't even know they have it or only have very slight symptoms.

Now you are down to 10% of 12.5% which is 1.25%.

Even then, out of the entire population, that 850,000 people (assuming full transmission which has been shown to be incorrect), there is virtually zero chance of becoming seriously ill and dying.

There is far, far, more chance that the virus will simply die out and become a perennial problem like Influenza. Which we don't wear masks for or socially distance for.

Suff wrote:
Even then, out of the entire population, that 850,000 people (assuming full transmission which has been shown to be incorrect), there is virtually zero chance of becoming seriously ill and dying.

There is far, far, more chance that the virus will simply die out and become a perennial problem like Influenza. Which we don't wear masks for or socially distance for.

Oh I am hoping for this too!

I am too Kaz. I'm hoping it stops being a political football and becomes a medical problem again.

Figures like today will help. UK, 1,649 new cases, 1 new death. I know it's a bank holiday etc, etc, but it is a trend, every week it gets lower. Eventually it will drop below 1,000 new cases a day and to 0 deaths from time to time. Then they are going to have a much harder time justifying all their controls.