Biden - a disaster of a President

[TheOstrich]

Biden's summary withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan has ripped the backbone out of the Afghan army, who understandably are deserting their posts and fleeing or changing sides as the Taliban make steady inroads across the country. It is now being forecast that Kabul will fall within a month, condemning a whole country to Taliban law and undoing all the gains in human rights over the last 20 years. Who would be an educated woman or a schoolgirl in that country now?

British MPs and army officials have spoken out against it, even some American politicians. Biden cannot hide behind Trump because it is his decision to pull out by 9/11/21. Afghan will inexorably become a failed state; Ben Wallace has said that a civil war is looming but I think he underestimates the resolve of the Taliban and the weakness of the Afghan government.

Two things occur to me. Firstly, China has missed a trick here. If they had sent troops into Afghanistan, (obviously with the Afghani Government's agreement), they could have conduct a "no-holds-barred" campaign to eradicate the Taliban once and for all - no Western sensibilities or rules of engagement required. By making Afghan a surrogate, dependent state, just like many African countries and Pacific Island nation states, they would have encircled India, had accessto the Indian Ocean, and cocked a huge snook at the USA. Bit it's probably too late for that now.

And secondly, if I were Taiwanese, I would be very worried. Very worried indeed. America has proved itself untrustworthy, and cannot be relied on not to break its promises.

[Workingman]

I was about to post my slightly different but equally Armageddonish thoughts on the subject along these lines.

When Afghanistan falls to the Taliban.

This now looks likely to happen in months rather than years and a couple of things follow.

IS and its jihadis get their fundamental Islam Caliphate by default via the Taliban. And there are huge porous and contested areas between Pakistan, China and India for them to exploit as well. A lot will depend on how the Taliban want Afghanistan to be seen in the wider world. Will it remain an internationally recognised state and member of the UN or will it become a pariah?

The next big unknown is Iran. It will find itself surrounded by Sunni Muslim states, a few of which are very hardline. One of them, Pakistan, is a nuclear power. It could be pushed in the nuclear direction like never before.

Nobody knows how the hammer will fall and I, for one, couldn't care less. I am sick to death of those of us in the West spending billions trying to drag these places out of the dark ages. I would be quite happy for them to sit and fester to their heart's content.

[Suff]

It is most amusing to watch the protestations of "anyone but trump", just as "anyone but Le Pen". Then, after voting against, they get the "other one" that they didn't really vote for. Cue poor thought out policies, poor performance, outrage and "he did WHAT".

Clearly Trump was not the worst thing that could happen. But that is all hindsight now.

As for China? Think of it another way. If they let the Taliban oust the government, Moonie the US, run roughshod over the entire country and suppress, violently, women and girls; then when they put one toe over the line of supporting action in China, China can come rushing in and "suppress" them. Install their own government and control the entire country. Who would complain? After all that is exactly what the US and the UK did isn't it. China is not beyond manufacturing their own crisis either.

In that scenario, China could, with the support of their "vichy" government, wipe the Taliban out once and for all in a concerted action that would "cleanse" the mountains.

Just because China didn't take the first opportunity when things started to fall apart, does not mean they missed out. Whilst what is going on in Afghanistan is a crisis, it is not a "good" crisis for China. When it becomes a "good" crisis for China, expect their politicians to make good use of it and not waste it.

[Workingman]

There is an ethnic area call Balochistan shared by Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan and it is largely Sunni-Salafist Islam - very hardline. In all three places there are conflicts between the Balochis and the states. If they combine and throw in with the Taliban who knows what could happen.

And good luck to China in taming Afghanistan. The Mongols (Genghis), the British Empire and the Russians, all with no-hold-barred rule, as well as the US and its allies all tried and failed. They were all much more politically powerful, technologically and militarily advanced yet the natives kept on winning. It could be a very costly exercise for the Chinese with its Sunni Muslim Uyghurs in its midst and living next door to the Afghans.

[Suff]

It has already been proven that creating a backwards religious state which eschews a strong economy or industry, gets squashed like a bug when the rules go out of the window. As happened to the Taliban post 9/11.

It was only with the restoration of "rules" and law and order, that they were then able to start murdering their way back to power.

China, on the other hand, doesn't ascribe to the same western rules of law and fair play. Give them an excuse to move in as the US and UK did and they will impose a regime every bit as totalitarian as the Taliban. Except the Taliban will be the one's being exterminated.

China keeps a 2m man standing army and their military technology is growing like their economy. Perhaps Afghanistan will be the first place the rest of the world wakes up to the danger? Once they have cleaned up that mess they could then decide Taiwan was the next stop.

Who knows. All we do know is that China plans far beyond the lives of those in power and those who come after only tweak the plan to ensure it succeeds.

In the grand scheme of things the Taliban is a nuisance. Because it usually keeps to its own bit of misery and doesn't export it, they tend to be left alone. If they start with the terrorist training camps again, they're going to feel the pain.

[cromwell]

Trump wanted to pull US troops out, Biden went along with it.
In some ways I can see why. The US and everybody put troops into Afghanistan and the Taliban get beaten and withdraw into the mountains or into Pakistan.
The US and everybody leave and the Taliban reappear.

It is a colossal waste of time imo because as everyone has pointed out we aren't allowed to do the job properly. The Chinese would have no such compunction.
So although I don't think much of Biden I can see his point on this one.

My late father was a boy soldier on the North West frontier before WW2 and he said the Afghans were the same then. They would come over the border into India (no Pakistan in those days) and cause havoc. The only way to discourage them was to drop a shell on them, dad said (he was in the Royal Artillery). Times have changed since then, though.

[Workingman]

It is wishful thinking that China will go in and do the job when all it will gain is the grief the rest of us who have tried and failed in a thousand years have got.

Afghanistan has few resources China needs and it is not under threat from IS, Al-Queda or other jihadists in the way the West is. If that ever becomes the case the Chinese will have no problem toasting Lashkar Gah, Kandahar, Herat and Kabul form the air without putting a foot on the ground. They have the means and mentality to do it and be home for tea.

[Osc]

Nobody knows how the hammer will fall and I, for one, couldn't care less. I am sick to death of those of us in the West spending billions trying to drag these places out of the dark ages. I would be quite happy for them to sit and fester to their heart's content.

I feel like that. The US has been there for 20 years and achieved nothing, if they stayed another 20 it would make no difference, and too many of their soldiers have died without ever knowing why or what they are fighting for.

[cromwell]

Someone seems to have messed the withdrawal up. The deadline for leaving has been known for ages but the Afghan army appears to have vanished and the Taliban have taken every city in Afghanistan bar Kabul, and that will fall soon.
So now the US and UK are scrambling around trying to get their nationals out before it's too late.
Not a good look.

[Suff]

The Taliban are already in Kabul and the president has fled.

It won't be long now. If it were me I would have the embassies and the presidential Palace and government Chambers mined and at the height of the celebrations I would turn them to dust.

Perhaps a bit ott, but as messaging goes, perhaps they would get the message and wind their necks in.