Should we let it rip?

[Workingman]

I know this is a bit naughty....

If the figures stay as they are today, and in the near future, are we going to have to let go?

Omicron, currently the most dominant Coronavirus strain, looks to be a lot milder than earlier strains. We have something like 90% of over 12 yr-olds double vaccinated, and 60% of us boosted. The most vulnerable "vulnerable" are, sadly, no longer with us.

Yes, there will be hospitalisations and deaths, but they are going to happen anyway. We cannot stop them - they will happen whatever we do over the longer period.

The big question is not really "if" but "when".

My bet is that in Spring this year we will stop pretending that we have won and move on.

[cromwell]

Hopefully it will be before then.
We can't go on like this.

[Workingman]

Hopefully it will be before then.

Can't see that happening.... we have to get over winter. Put a bet on Apooril 1st for the plebs.

Rumours are of a late night Downing St party on March 31st with Boris in a tutu and Carrie wearing the trousers.

[Suff]

I don't think it's naughty WM, it is a valid question to ask.

Rumours are of a late night Downing St party on March 31st with Boris in a tutu and Carrie wearing the trousers.

There are times, you know, when Aphantasia is an advantage! That is one image I won't have to create or carry around in my head.... Because I can't.

I think you are right. It is going to take months of data mining for them to be able to present a picture of how we are going to move on and get on with our lives and stop trying to hide from this virus.

A very big first step was the stopping of PCR/Lateral flow tests for people entering the UK. The tacit admission is that there is so much infection in the UK today already that the few drops of infections which may come in via train/ship/plane are going to make exactly Zero difference. So why burn ourselves out trying to control something which really doesn't matter?


The key numbers for me are active cases and serious/critical. Back in November active cases were ~1m and serious/critical were over 1,000. Today active cases are 3.2m and the serious/critical just dropped back to 875 after blipping up over 900 yesterday.

The longer this goes on, the more solid a base they will have for just getting on with life.

But, as said many times before, we need the numbers to stabilise and get back to normal. During that time I expect there to be a slow and growing campaign of "see these numbers show it is manageable". Plus "if this trend continues, we will be able to release all restrictions". Once the expectation has duly been hammered in for a few months, the step will be a "yawn, whatever" when they do it.

[Suff]

Figures are continuing. We're still at 3x new daily cases from November, daily, but the critical cases continue to fall. Need at least a week more of this before it settles in.