A United Ireland - will it happen?

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A United Ireland - will it happen?

Postby Workingman » 03 Feb 2024, 17:53

I think it could happen before the end of this decade, but if not, it will happen eventually.

Michelle O'Niell and Mary Lou McDonald have become the acceptable faces of Sinn Fein, and not just on the island of Ireland but also in the UK and further afield.

The IRA and PIRA are no longer needed as the demographics in NI have changed. The Good Friday Agreement also changed things politically, and Brexit put a border between NI and the rest of the UK. And let's not forget that Protestants live quite peacefully in the Republic. They currently make up about 5% of the population and that would increase to about 8% with unification - they really do not have anything to worry about.

Unionists are a different matter. They are as much a political as a religious problem. Something will have to be done to neutralise the UVF and UDA before they cause trouble. Ireland has seen enough troubles.
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Re: A United Ireland - will it happen?

Postby miasmum » 04 Feb 2024, 10:33

Completely agree WM. When you mention Ireland all people harp on about are the IRA and the dissident Republican organisations People seem to be oblivious to the fact the Loyalist terrorist organisations, such as the UVF were/are just as dangerous.

My uncle served in Northern Ireland for the British Army and was quite badly injured. I bought a book to help me understand our role there. It was called The History of the British Army in Northern Ireland. I started it thinking I was on the side of the British Army and finished it, whilst NEVER supporting the IRA’s tactics at least understanding their reasons.

I found Ian Paisley far more chilling than Gerry Adams.
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Re: A United Ireland - will it happen?

Postby cromwell » 04 Feb 2024, 11:56

Maybe so, maybe no.

There are many problems to overcome; one of which is that not everyone south of the border would welcome Unionists into a united ireland. There has been a lot said and done over the years that would go against that. There would also be an economic element. NI is the highest recipient of state spending per head in the UK. I can't imagine that any Irish government would want to spend a similar amount; and it would be tricky for a British government politically to continue subsidising a region that was no longer part of the UK.

So doable, maybe, but tricky.
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Re: A United Ireland - will it happen?

Postby Workingman » 04 Feb 2024, 18:57

I already said that the Unionist problem had to be solved. How? That's anybody's guess. Unionist come to GB / rUK. or just accept?

Economically the EU will pick up the slack for a while, as it has done in other former "countries" that became free in the past from former regimes: Slovenia; Slovakia; Croatia; most of the Warsaw Pact and Eastern Europe. NI will slowly align with the Republic.
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Re: A United Ireland - will it happen?

Postby Suff » 05 Feb 2024, 00:34

If you read the GFA, (I know it's really anal), the UK government has a task to create a set of basic human rights for NI. Once they create it and have it agreed by Stormont, then Dublin will replicate those rights in their own legislation.

This was a key critical part of the GFA which was meant to ensure that if NI did eventually decide to secede and join back into the republic, that they would not lose the basic rights they enjoyed in the UK.

Blair was a coward and never did it. No PM since has even tried.

Without that I can't see a way for the reunification. In short the UK parliament HAS to complete their job before this can go ahead.

I guess it is just another way of ensuring that unification is kicked down the road.
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Re: A United Ireland - will it happen?

Postby Osc » 06 Feb 2024, 11:13

What many people outside Ireland don’t realise is that NI was created as a Protestant (Unionist) state for Protestant people and over the decades, Catholics (Nationalists) suffered appalling discrimination- that was the root of the Troubles. So to have a Catholic First Minister is huge, and the DUP fought against that for two years. I am in no way a Sinn Fein supporter but I do like Michelle O’Neill. NI has run a deficit since 1966, so although most people in Ireland would welcome a United Ireland, the economics of it would have to be very carefully considered. I wonder would the UK government pay Ireland to take NI off its hands ;)
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Re: A United Ireland - will it happen?

Postby Kaz » 06 Feb 2024, 11:46

I suppose another question might be, would most people in NI welcome a united Ireland? If so then most definitely it should be United. I’m probably being very naive here, but would a referendum on that be a good idea?
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Re: A United Ireland - will it happen?

Postby Workingman » 06 Feb 2024, 11:57

Osc wrote:I wonder would the UK government pay Ireland to take NI off its hands ;)

Maybe, or not, but I think that the EU would step in to help integrate NI with the Republic, certainly financially, as it has done with Eastern Europe's newer members. NI is already a half member thanks to Berksit... sort of.

Once in the GFA would cease to exist and the human rights of Northern Irelanders would be protected by the EU. Those rights are the equivalent of the UK's, and sometimes better. NI didn't want Brexit so it would be no big deal for them.
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Re: A United Ireland - will it happen?

Postby cromwell » 06 Feb 2024, 13:55

Osc wrote:What many people outside Ireland don’t realise is that NI was created as a Protestant (Unionist) state for Protestant people and over the decades, Catholics (Nationalists) suffered appalling discrimination- that was the root of the Troubles. So to have a Catholic First Minister is huge, and the DUP fought against that for two years. I am in no way a Sinn Fein supporter but I do like Michelle O’Neill. NI has run a deficit since 1966, so although most people in Ireland would welcome a United Ireland, the economics of it would have to be very carefully considered. I wonder would the UK government pay Ireland to take NI off its hands ;)


There is a lot that people in the UK don't know about Ireland, for certain.
Our history with Ireland was not taught much in my school (or anyone else's that I know).

I think Starmer would pay to get rid of NI, but it wouldn't be framed like that. There are now more Catholics than Protestants in NI, so demography is on the side of a united Ireland.
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Re: A United Ireland - will it happen?

Postby medsec222 » 06 Feb 2024, 18:45

I support Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom for as long as they want to stay within the UK. If and when the population decides they want to be part of a United Ireland then that is a decision which has to be respected. I had a friend many years ago who has now passed away. She was a Catholic and came from Portadown. She was married to a local man and hence made her home here. She told me on several occasions that the Catholic community in Northern Ireland were second class citizens and were last in line for jobs, etc. She was also upset by the Orange parades. She said that the Catholic community felt that the Orange marchers were lording it over them. This was in the 60s so hopefully things have changed for the better by now. With hindsight, whoever thought it was a good idea to divide a country into two parts.
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