Vocal Voices

Yes, you read that correctly.

They have done it in a lab in Wisconsin. It is a flu strain similar to the one that killed over 80 million people at the end of WWI. They have done it by splicing genes from already known deadly viruses with one that can be airborne and, therefore, easy to transmit form one to another once released.

All we need now is for Sod's and Murphy's laws to kick in for Armageddon to strike. And if it has been done once it can be done again, and not necessarily in a secure environment. All it would take is for some sicko group to produce their own version and release it into the wild in, say, a series of coordinated attacks on the world's bigger subway systems and that would be it.

Pandora's Box

Why would you ever do this? What's the point?

I like science. I believe in science, but there are some places where science should not go - this is one of them.

Trouble is that for some if it can be done it will be done. It is for our benefit, you see, or so their argument goes.

If remember correctly they are trying to create a virus which can deliver an inoculation or cure. In order to do that, they must create the very problem they are trying to eradicate.

Laudable, but dangerous all the same.

The problem is unknown. SARS, Bird Flu and MERS were not known, they mutated from an unquantifiable number of possible variables. They did so in the wild and could have taken any number of routes to becoming infective to humans.

To seek to create an artificial virus that will definitely be infective to humans is not laudable, it is irresponsible. To actually do so, without also developing an antidote, is criminally insane. If it ever escapes, or if it is developed elsewhere, we have no defence.

This is the stuff of nightmares.

The end goal is to produce the virus shell which can communicate the virus over the air. Prove it works and then change the payload from something harmfuil to something beneficial.

This is possible now with our current level of knowledge. However it's still incredibly dangerous.

Then again, contrast the fact that their alternative is Smallpox.....

No great stride has been taken without some risk. When they created the first atomic bomb it was postulated that they might cause a chain reaction which would consume the whole planet.

Naturally the laws of physics intervened and we learned that we'd need to get a whole lot bigger before we could make stable matter chain react in a nuclear explosion.

It is similar with biological infections. They mutate. After the 7th iteration virtually every viral infection mutates itself to a form which human immune systems can cope with. The one true exception to this is smallpox which can go as far as 12 or 13 or more before it breaks down. Even Ebola starts to break down over 7 iterations.

The biggest single issue with modern life and biological infections is that the secondaries can reach the whole world in 2 - 3 days. International travel is the issue.

Whilst I share your concern, I am also less alarmed by it and more focused on the end goal. They aren't just playing games to "see if they can". They have their sights set on much higher goals.

What it comes down to is whether or not you trust them. For me, on the whole, I don't think they take enough precautions.

But, again, the final impact is self limiting. If equally catastrophic whilst in progress.

Iterations can be made to work both ways, as this article explains.

What the people in Wisconsin have done is not the normal serial passage, as seen in responsible labs. They have used reverse genetics on a known lethal flu strain (Spanish flu) and spliced it with avian flu strains to create a novel virus. Spanish flu is still out there, and on its own could still cause a deadly pandemic, as are the varieties of avian flu. Thankfully the chances of them coming together in the natural world and then to mutate into a super-virus transmissible to humans are infinitesimally small. That is not the case in the lab.

When the former chief science adviser to the UK Government says the experiments are "exceedingly dangerous" I tend to think that he might know a bit more about this sort of thing than I do and deserves to be listened to.

And when the lead scientist, Professor Yoshihiro Kawaoka, makes the following throw-away remark about his work I am not reassured.

He said: "The worst-case scenario is the emergence of a novel avian influenza virus that exhibits high pathogenicity in humans, like H5N1 (avian flu) viruses, and efficient transmissibility in humans, like seasonal influenza viruses.

That's OK, then. Carry on Prof. you have convinced me. I mean it is not as though worst-case scenarios, or even sub-optimal worst-case scenarios, ever happen: is it?

When you consider the goal, the effort is worth it. Granted It is highly dangerous. But the end result?

Consider. New Avian flu outbreak. They develop the cure. How do they get it to the people? Simply they release it as a pathogen at all public transport area's in the world, simultaneously.

End result? Within 72 hours something like 85% of the entire world's population is inoculated against the latest outbreak.

Of course if they are being flippant, stupid or not taking enough precautions, then they should get slapped and slapped hard where it hurts. But there should be no panic shutdown of the effort because it has dangers. The benefits could, quite literally, save millions of lives in the long run.

Of course, then, the fast breeding areas of the world will need to watch their populations or we'll be overrun.

But that, as they say, is an entirely different story.

WHY

On earth do you all worry yourselves about things you cannot ever control, totally believe that when your number comes up its bey, bey, and that's your lot, whether its man-made or just fate
DT