Vocal Voices

The Labour vote has changed little or even strengthened. But the Tory and Lib Dem votes are being massacred. Partly to UKIP and partly to Labour.

http://www.ukip.org/poll_results_in_ful ... ource=ukip

Cameron may be going on about "A vote for UKIP is a Vote for Labour".

I have a different statement for you Mr Cameron.

"A deal with UKIP is a massive Tory Victory and one in the eye for Labour and the Lib Dems".

The problem with the whole deal? Cameron does not want us out of Europe and with UKIP at his right arm, he'd be forced to. Although I do believe he has had to face the hard facts over the last two months. Losing Scotland would hurt him exponentially more than losing the EU. Faced with that reality, I believe he's become a bit more pragmatic.

Now he needs to stave off disaster. It is in his hands to keep Labour out of office for the next 5 years. If he fumbles this one he'll pay with a lot more than regrets...

If he doesn't broker a deal with Nigel Farage he will live to regret it. His own desire to remain within the EU as now irrelevant as I suspect most of the electorate want out.

I have been looking at a poll of polls and every single one of them, Ashcroft, Populus, ComRes and YouGov put UKIP in third place with about 16% of the vote and LibDems in fourth with about 7%.

It remains to be seen how many seats 16% translates into. Newspaper guesstimates range from 2 to 14.

The poll of polls puts Labour ahead with a 4% lead, but that does not give them a working majority. Because of the way constituencies are shaped it will probably give Labour and Tories similar numbers of seats. What happens then is anybody's guess.

The crazy thing for me is that looking at these polls, if the Tories were to work with the UKIP, the two, together, could clean up with a really large majority. Many of the marginal Labour seats would be massively at risk if UKIP had the Tory vote. Leaving the Tories as the clear winner but still needing the UKIP to give them an overall majority.

Of course the Tories under Cameron won't do the deal because he does not want them in the position of forcing his hand on the EU.

Which must lead a lot of Tories to conclude that he is disingenuous about his claims of giving us a free and clear vote without interfering.

In this respect I'm really glad about the 11th hour panicked intervention in the Scottish referendum. Because if they try that again for an EU referendum, they'll get exactly what they deserve. The middle finger.....