by Suff » 27 Dec 2015, 15:30
When you listen to climate scientists talking about storms and hurricanes, it is interesting in the extreme. They don't talk abut these storms or hurricanes as "weather" they talk about them as heat transport events. Essentially the hotter parts of the world are exporting heat, in the format of evaporated water, around the planet.
Where that water falls is not relevant to them, although they can estimate. Their estimate is the temperate parts of the world will gradually see more rain before desert marches north.
Whilst this is a wakeup call in terms of water management. This is also a wakeup call in terms of the sheer volume of water which will need to be managed. Our current systems are sufficient for "normal" 20th century weather, when managed properly. However, as we have seen, when successive storms roll over us week after week after week, our systems start to break down, the ground becomes saturated and can't cope with volume of water.
I have seen this time and time again over the decades. Also, because I am sensitive to all things climate, I also see the slow and insidious increase in the tempo and intensity of these "heat transfer" events. Give it a decade and people will come to accept pretty much anything as normal. Give it 5 decades and those old enough to know better are gone and, for those who grew up with it, this is normal. Humans adapt. This is the basic part of our make-up which has allowed us to become dominant.
So whilst we have to sort the system out and get it working again, we also have to anticipate what is going to come over the next few decades. Bridge founds are going to be eroded, houses close to water are going to lose their found and disappear. Soak ways are going to flood and stay flooded and the volume of water is going to keep rising.
The Victorians created massive structures and complicated infrastructures. Even more so the Romans than the Victorians. Some might wonder why we don't do that so much any more and have forgotten all those hard learned lessons.
The sad fact is that the Romans did pretty much everything by foot, boat and cart. The Victorians had trains and steam but everything from the railhead to the site of the disaster was by horse and cart. We, on the other hand, can saddle up the Army, bring in earth movers and we can suck out the drains and clean the overflows whilst the storm is ongoing. Those who came before us did not have that luxury. They had to estimate the problem and deal with it so that it was self managing in the crisis.
Our greatest works on that scale are the post 53 sea defences and the Thames Barrier. Yet decade after decade after decade I've watched the systems, around the country, fail to cope with disasters they were designed to avert. Now we are seeing the same places being hit over and over again instead of once every 20 or 30 years. Perhaps this is what it takes for people to wake up and smell the coffee.
The climate has changed, we changed it and the world is no longer as friendly to us as it was.
No doubt we will resolve it on a political scale. Once we have stepped in the crud we will attempt to fix the problem. Sadly, this time, they will be up to their necks in it and no way of creating the solutions to the problems as they will damage our manufacturing base at the same time as we are trying to use that base to fix the problem...
I do hope it will be slow enough that I don't see it. But I'm not confident...
There are 10 types of people in the world:
Those who understand Binary and those who do not.