Ideas don't usually die

[Suff]

with a bang. Normally they die with a whimper.

Not long ago a Swedish girl of immigrant parentage was murdered in a centre for the care of underage immigrants who have no parents in country. This year the Swede’s closed the border with stringent border controls, slowing the flow of immigrants (illegal), from 10,000 per week to circa 800 per week.

Denmark, today, passed a law allowing the state to take valuables from the immigrants and using that wealth to support them until such time as they run out of money. Once they run out of money, then the state will support them.

The Dutch are talking about Schengen as a dead idea if they don’t resolve the immigrant crisis in 6 – 8 weeks, but, let’s face it, that crisis is not going away because the immigrants who are already in the Balkans, heading to the EU, have no clue how the promises of Merkel have turned to dust and how the EU states attitudes have hardened.

Again the spectre of expulsion from the Schengen Zone for Greece is being talked about, but also the total suspension of Schengen for 2 years. If they close Schengen for 2 years I can’t see it opening again for at least a decade. Everyone who needed to close it will want assurances that the periphery won’t fail again as it has in the last 2 years and that assurance can’t come without Frontex, literally, taking over all the external borders of the EU. The UK will veto that immediately, Frontex won’t get any foothold in the UK borders. Any party that handed over UK borders to EU control would be slaughtered in the polls.

The Schengen accord is lying in the dust moaning. Whether it is picked up, dusted off and bandaged up for another few rounds will be an interesting point to watch over the next few months. However, barring divine EU intervention, Schengen’s time is limited.

In many ways the best thing that could happen during the negotiations in Feb is that Cameron is told he must take a 200k quota of immigrants or they won’t sign up for his deal. Basically forcing all the illegals on the UK in one chunk before they let us get some more control back. That deal would fatally wound the “In” campaign like a knife in the heart.

I see no sudden implosion of the EU Schengen accord. I do, however, see a mewling, whimpering, slow death as the more liberal states attempt to protect themselves from rampant illegal immigration of people who want nothing more than a patch of land on which they can raise a new state in the place of the one they have lost.

[Workingman]

The main problems of Schengen are twofold.

Firstly its peripheral borders are not secure in the same way as they would be for a single country/state. That is largely down to there not being one set of rules to operate with or for a peripheral country applying its own rules stringently enough. If those mean that there is a requirement for Frontex or a Schengen Border Agency so be it.

Secondly the Treaties of Rome and Amsterdam dealing with the free movement of EU nationals and Schengen border patrols have been misapplied. Freedom of movement is for EU nationals - having a passport check does not change that. Refugees, economic migrants and illegal immigrants are not EU nationals so in theory should be able to be checked at every border. Unfortunately the easy and de facto option was to remove the Zoll/Duane booths and not check anyone so, once in, anyone can go anywhere.

As the UK is not part of Schengen it should keep well away from what the signatories to it decide what to do. The fact that we are crap at securing our own border is another matter.

I do not see Schengen ending, but I do see it being greatly modified.