Ooooh not good

[miasmum]

http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/update/2 ... ptonshire/

I was there on Monday too

[Workingman]

It will be interesting to see if the patient is known to Pauline Cafferkey or might have travelled with her back from Sierra Leone.

The authorities will hope not.

[Suff]

This is a change from the trend though. Early possible detection with the infected person supposedly not being a danger to the public. Rather than frantic searching to find everyone she may have been in contact with.

Although the early detection might be as a result of the search for people who have been in contact with Pauline Cafferkey. I guess time will tell.

In the interim, the outbreak continues to slow. Average new cases are down to 80 per day (28 Dec - 4 jan), with Guinea down to around 10 per day and Liberia around 15 per day. At these levels, it will be possible for both Guinea and Liberia to close out the infection within a couple of months. Only Sierra Leone is still running higher levels and even that is down significantly from November.

The death rate to infection rate is now down to 39% and continues to fall. Anyone who falls ill in the West and does not survive, in the next two months, is going to be extremely unlucky.

Eventually we should see the virus mutate to the point where it is no worse than an extremely virulent flu. Bad enough, but hardly panic epidemic conditions.