The start of a Shia-Sunni Middle East war?

[Workingman]

Saudi Arabia (Sunni) has launched air strikes on Yemeni (Shia) rebels and is reported to have 150,000 ground troops on its border with Yemen ready to invade.

Iran (Shia) has said that it "will make all efforts to control [the] crisis in Yemen". That is a diplomatic way of telling the Saudis to go home: or else.

Make no mistake about it, Iran is a very strong regional power. It can mobilise about one million well trained armed forces. It makes the vast majority of its own weapons so does not rely on imports, unlike most ME states. It has ballistic missiles capable of carrying warheads to Israel, which also put Riyadh, Jeddah, Dammam, Qatar, the Emirates, Kuwait and other members of the Arab League in range. It has its own oil and refineries. It also has troops currently in Iraq and the Saudi northern border is not very well protected.

If this really kicks off we could all find ourselves in big trouble.

[cromwell]

They have been hating each other for a long time, so it could happen.

[pederito1]

It nearly happened in Iraq before Saddam took over and kept them more or less apart.

[TheOstrich]

Part of me (well, quite a lot of me) says - bring it on.

Might well just be the start of the cathartic event the Middle East now needs.

[Suff]

Since the end of WWII, it has become almost impossible for countries to change their borders or boundaries. The age old methods of one country attacking another and gaining power or, more importantly, a solution, to regional tensions have been denied.

This has created huge bottled up tensions in the more volatile areas of the world. Tensions which might have been reduced by a short sharp war and a loser on one side of the other.

Nothing good will come of this until the people of these regions learn to live together in peace. Something it took us many hundreds of years to do. Unfortunately in a world of powerful weapons, time is something they just don't have.

[Workingman]

Unfortunately in a world of powerful weapons, time is something they just don't have.

Yes, and it is known that Saudi Arabia funded the technology and research needed by Pakistan to develop its nuclear weapons. A request for pay-back, in kind, might not go unheeded if things get tough.

I had often wondered about Iran's nuclear aims and all the rhetoric about wiping Israel off the map. I questioned whether that was all a bluff to keep other Islamic states on-side. It struck me that Iran's real fears were about its Sunni Islam neighbours, and particularly Pakistan - a nuclear power.

If it does kick off I am with Ossie, but only if it stays in the ME. Of that I am not hopeful.

[Suff]

Well if it went nuclear it would cure us of our oil habit rapidly.

[Workingman]

Reuters is reporting that satellite images show the Yemeni Houthi rebels have stationed SCUD missiles on the border with Saudi Arabia.

This might be nothing more than an excuse by the Saudis to justify their air strikes in Yemen. However, if it is true, and depending upon where they are and the variant, Jeddah and Riyadh would certainly be in range. The Houthis have apparently captured the bulk of Yemen's 300 or so SCUDS and Iran is supplying spares. Quite an arsenal.

Iran is also ramping up the pressure. It has denied giving the Houthis military support, but its Foreign Minister, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, is quoted as saying: "Saudi Arabia is too small to be able to threaten Iran. We utterly condemn Saudi Arabia's attack on Yemen and it will end in failure."

He also said that Iran was likely to retaliate indirectly, by encouraging pro-Iranian Shi'ite activists to carry out armed attacks in Bahrain, Lebanon and eastern Saudi Arabia.

[Suff]

It's a bit like watching a train wreck in slow motion isn't it.

I wonder if this is what it felt like running up to WW1? Everyone is focused on their own short term gains instead of being focused on the people they are supposed to be representing or protecting.

It is no doubt that Iran is the most dangerous country in the world right now for the stability of the world. Followed by North Korea. However the major difference with North Korea is that it has China right next door who has the ability to utterly destroy it by either nuclear or conventional means. Also North Korea is bounded by the usual human greed. Iran and the rebels are driven by religious ideology. Faith, in other words.

In my book "Faith" is a double edges sword. Belief in something which cannot be proven may be a blessing or the worst curse imaginable. Belief in a benign culture where the main tenet is being good to one another is not so bad in terms of faith. However belief in blindly following a culture which uses every form of violence and barbarism to continue itself is not so much of a blessing. Especially for those who are not of that faith.

[cromwell]

The Saudis were urging the USA to nuke Iran years since. This has been boiling just under the surface for a long time.