Greece's Tsipras heads to Moscow

[Suff]

In this Guardian article it says that Brussels is sitting with trepidation at the fact that Putin may give Greece an offer they simply can't refuse.

If he does and if Tsipras accepts, then the EU and the ECB have absolutely nobody to blame but themselves. When being slowly strangled, most people will take any offer to get the noose off. Let alone someone who has promised his voters to both take the noose off and still stay within the Euro. Something the ECB and Brussels are making virtually impossible with a direct ruthlessness that most people are completely missing.

I'm interested to see the result of the meeting. It may be nothing but Greece has to pay the IMF half a billion € tomorrow and most pundits say that they can only do that by not paying pensions to their people. A no brainer as one Greek official said.....

[cromwell]

Predictable. In fact we did predict it!

Putin has a good hand to play if he plays it right.

[Workingman]

Tsipras visitis Moscow and shakes Putin's hand. He does not ask for any money, and Putin does not offer any. Putin does not ask for any relaxation of Greece's EU trade sanctions and Tsipras, does not offer any.

So...... 'As you were'.

They do discuss bilateral interests such as the Turkish Stream, a gas pipeline and some Russian investment in infrastructure, but that goes on all the time.

Meanwhile, Greece has sold €1.4bn of bonds out of which it has to pay the Trioka €450m tomorrow, leaving about €700m to pay government wages and pensions.

The sky has not fallen in, despite the scare stories of the spivs and bankers, so no big bonuses for them, then. In a week Greece has to roll-over €1bn of Eurozone loans. We all now know that is a paperwork exercise and will happen; despite the wishes of those same bankers and spivs.

Unless a real emergency arises the next general election in Greece will be in about four years. If the politicians and spivs do not work something out by then the Greeks might just be tempted to say "Sod you all" and offer a position to one of their Generals. He, or she, might just go for the default option and the New Drachma where 1 = $0.001...... The only way is up.

[victor]

if the E.U. keep pushing Greece--how long until they offer Putin use of Greek navel bases

[TheOstrich]

if the E.U. keep pushing Greece--how long until they offer Putin use of Greek navel bases

That is an interesting point because one of the things that emerged today was that the corporation that runs Russia's railways was cited as going to be upgrading the infrastructure at one of the Greek ports .....

And are not the Russians trying to do a deal with Cyprus for use of one of its naval bases?

[Workingman]

Oh.... come on.

The 'use of' is not the same as 'establishing' a naval base. During any war, Russian ships in Limassol would be wiped out in seconds; we and the Russians know that. The same with aircraft at Paphos Airport. The only Russian naval base in the Med is at Tartus in Syria, not exactly the safest place on the planet. It does not have an Air force or Army base.

The Royal Navy has 'use of' ports all over the world. They are not all allies or members of NATO. The RAF conducts exercises in areas that are friendly, but not necessarily allies. The same with the Army.

All these 'military' threats are Straw Man stuff unless Turkey quits NATO and joins Russia, as do the Greeks. Without them both playing ball Russia is trapped in the Black Sea, and we all know it.

[Suff]

Meanwhile the Greek representative to the IMF has resigned.

The bonds were six month bonds. Which means that they have to repay them along with the other billions in 6 months time. All it did was add 3% to the money they have to pay and also to increase their debt load, not decrease it.

The visit to Russia may have been seen as "politicking", but, in the end, Greece is going to need friends. The next crunch date is April 24th. Let's see if the Eurozone release the 7.9 billion they are holding on to. But don't hold your breath.... Right now the only friends Greece has, who are willing to discuss concrete things to help them (even if it does net Russia more than Greece in the short term), are all outside of the EU. Something which people might ponder.

We'll know if things start to go south when the bond sales are undersubscribed and they have to go to 3 month bonds. Meanwhile, as you say, it will continue to stumble on from crisis to crisis. Mainly because the EU are determined to change the social and political landscape of Greece.

The Greeks get it. I wonder if the rest of the EU does. Because that is what the EU has been doing for 30 years now. It is so slow that most don't really understand it. But it is reality.

[cromwell]

And are not the Russians trying to do a deal with Cyprus for use of one of its naval bases?

They are already using them Os. The deal was done in 2013.

[Suff]

Just having a relatively safe harbour for resupply, crew changes and minor refitting is a major boon to Russia. Just take the US as an example. They refit and re-crew in the US. That means they have to sail between 1/3 and 1/2 of the way around the world in order to do that. So America has enough Navy to patrol, resupply and change in the US plus have ships in refit in the US all at the same time.

For Russia, who either has to navigate congested waters which could be denied them, or sail to the Atlantic or the Pacific, having bases at which they can station troops, supplies and, possibly, refit equipment, is a massive boon to Russia out of proportion to the price paid.

This allows Russia to project power and influence around the seas of the world without needing to go to war and at a significantly higher operational tempo than would be possible otherwise.

You don't have to go to war to get your own way...

At a time of high tensions in the Med, Russia could simply run a high tempo live firing exercise denying the US significant portions of the sea at times when they may want to move their naval assets. Having port facilities in Greece and Cyprus gives Russia a game changing advantage.

[victor]

my point exactly Suff