EU Referendum

[TheOstrich]

So, on the basis that this is now going to go ahead in 2017 ....

What reforms / concessions / opt-outs can Britain realistically expect to achieve?
Will the EU be more concerned about keeping us in the club, so giving up major concessions to us? How hard-ball should we play it?
Is the UK electorate losing its appetite for getting out?
With no viable, coherent opposition in Westminster apart from the SNP at the moment, who will put the pro-EU argument?
If the SNP put it, it that going to make the English more anti-EU?
How far will the Tory right-wing hold Cameron over a barrel?

Or do you think it'll be fudged and we wont get a referendum at all?

[medsec222]

The important thing is that the electorate get a say. I think the outcome will be close.

[cromwell]

What reforms / concessions / opt-outs can Britain realistically expect to achieve?
Will the EU be more concerned about keeping us in the club, so giving up major concessions to us? How hard-ball should we play it?
Is the UK electorate losing its appetite for getting out?

We've seen this before, with Harold Wilson in the 70's. "Renegotiation", so all is OK now and we can happily stay in.

Crikey Os, I don't really know. Cameron voted against Junker for EU President, so no love lost there. Merkel has her own problems at the moment with a US spying scandal and the Greeks as well.

I can't see Cameron getting anywhere with immigration. The freedom of movement within the EU is a building block of the whole idea, I don't think we will be allowed to qualify it in any way. The French won't be on our side in any way, shape or form. Most of the people in the EU actually buy into the idea of the EU, the idea of us being given any more concessions than we already have? I can't see it.

We may be given a few scraps on red tape and the human rights issue, but I reckon that will be it.

If we hold a referendum then I think the "In" camp will win. Because all these favour us staying in:-
Conservatives, Labour, LidDems, SNP.
BBC, Sky TV.
Big business.

What ordinary people want or don't want isn't really that important, as ever. Whoever puts the "Out" case will be howled down, insulted and smeared even worse than was the case in the 70's.

The longer the campaign goes on, the more scare stories, outright lies and half truths there will be. Mostly favouring the "In" camp because their views are held by most of the broadcast media.

If we come out, the EU will make it very clear to us that if we leave there will be a price to pay for us daring to do so. I think I'm right in saying that Norway has to accept the free movement of EU citizens even though they aren't in the EU? Stuff like that. They will not like us leaving and would not treat us at all fairly if we did. I don't expect the BBC will publicise this too much though!

[Workingman]

So, on the basis that this is now going to go ahead in 2017 ....

What reforms / concessions / opt-outs can Britain realistically expect to achieve?
Not many.

Will the EU be more concerned about keeping us in the club, so giving up major concessions to us? How hard-ball should we play it?
Very soft. Most of the Tories, all Labour, LibDems, SNP, Greens and many others want us in the EU. Problems, problems, Dave.

Is the UK electorate losing its appetite for getting out?
Did it ever have one?

With no viable, coherent opposition in Westminster apart from the SNP at the moment, who will put the pro-EU argument?
Most of the Tories, all Labour, LibDems, SNP, Greens and many others, as I said earlier, plus big business.

If the SNP put it, it that going to make the English more anti-EU?
Yes, regardless of what the politicians want.

How far will the Tory right-wing hold Cameron over a barrel?
The vision about how far makes me wince.

Or do you think it'll be fudged and we wont get a referendum at all?
Erm, possibly, maybe, maybe not, who knows?

[Suff]

Hmmm,

My take,

What reforms / concessions / opt-outs can Britain realistically expect to achieve?
Nothing in a treaty. Or in other words, nothing substantial. Or, in reality, Nothing!

Will the EU be more concerned about keeping us in the club, so giving up major concessions to us? How hard-ball should we play it?
How we should play it and how it will be played are two different things. In a coalition it would have been soft to the point of marshmallow. However with a majority Tory government, a majority of a few MP's and at least 100 EUskeptic back benchers? I would expect to see a few more Veto's in the next two years.

Let's face it. The institutions of the EU are undemocractic, narcissistic, unaccountable, money hogs and a gravy train to make the UK politicians look like starved waifs.

How do you negotiate with a dictator?

Get him on his own and ram a loaded pistol down his throat and explain the exit path of the bullet......


Is the UK electorate losing its appetite for getting out?

The UK electorate is divided as the politicians are divided. A medium sized group are radically against. A medium sized group are fanatical about staying in. A medium sized group don't care so long as they get money every month. A large group couldn't keep their shoes on without Velcro.....

Is there appetite? Yep, but it depends on the noise the "For Exit" party makes. But, as we have seen in the last referendum held in the UK, the "don't care so long as I get money every month" can be easily bought....


With no viable, coherent opposition in Westminster apart from the SNP at the moment, who will put the pro-EU argument?

I'm with WM on this. The only politicians who Don't oppose it [exit] are UKIP and the Tory Right....

If the SNP put it, it that going to make the English more anti-EU?

Well Sturgeon managed to get a hell of a lot of Lib Dem and Labour voters in England to vote Tory. I'm sure she could do it all over again if she tried even moderately hard.....

How far will the Tory right-wing hold Cameron over a barrel?

Till he screams for mercy and then some. There will be no masochistic pleasure, only pain and more pain.... I'm with WM, so much so it makes me wince...

On the fudged bit I don't think so. Cameron is a fairly straight guy on these things. If he promises something then he will do his damndest to deliver it. Remember he thinks he can convince the population to stay. I think he's probably right. So what does he have to lose except to shut down his far right and that's not a loss is it?